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The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) reported job losses of 247,000 and a unemployment rate of 9.4%. Both of these numbers were below earlier estimates of 275,000 jobs lost and a unemployment rate of 9.6%.
While it is nice that the number of losses and unemployment are beginning to decline let's not get it twisted. 1) We are still losing jobs and 2) Once a person has exhausted all unemployment benefits they are no longer counted in the unemployment survey.
The question is...will this eventual recovery be just as jobless as the previous one?
My two cents follows: In our "post-capitalist" society, the traditional path to success will be driven by entrepreneurs, thinkers, doers, independent professionals and not by the W-2 wage earners.
What is your opinion?
I agree spot on. Most of these recessions are cured by the ingenuity of the American people not some government bureaucrat. Thats why limited government works so great!
My two cents follows: In our "post-capitalist" society, the traditional path to success will be driven by entrepreneurs, thinkers, doers, independent professionals and not by the W-2 wage earners.
There seems to be some truth to this, a lot of younger people seem to be going this direction.
The month to month numbers are a bit noisy....this is all well known.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stupidbicyclist
Needless to say, the government has not bailed out my company, or given me ANY loans or grants of that sort. My company would be doing GREAT right now, even over the past year, but guess what... NO ONE can get financed (and this is for $5,000-$7,000 mind you)
Many people are getting loans right now. I have access to around $50k just from credit card companies, let alone supplier credit etc and I don't even pursue credit lines much.
The issue is that lenders only want to borrow money to the people that don't need it.
Also, if your company is hurting because you can't get small loan for $5,000~$7,000 than you are obviously very undercapitalized, that or have drained everything and are about to go under.
I just got a 100K line of credit with a bank I've never done business with before. A friend of mine just got a 500K letter of credit for his small business. Neither of us had any trouble getting this accomplished inside a week.
Quite frankly, anyone who needs to borrow 5-7K is probably a credit risk.
Also, if your company is hurting because you can't get small loan for $5,000~$7,000 than you are obviously very undercapitalized, that or have drained everything and are about to go under.
It is not our company that needs the 5-7K for financing...it is the customers we are selling too. We sell business models, and yes, 5-7K is not a lot and many people have that...however, in this economy, people tend to hold on to what they have saved. The reason people want financing is so that they can "build" the business without putting out all of their capital in one shot. So to speak, let the banks pay for your business while you build it.
The month to month numbers are a bit noisy....this is all well known.
Understanding how the numbers are cooked doesn't seem to keep the pundits on bubblevision from holding up a drop in headline (U-3) UE as some sort of signpost on the road to victory.
When I ask does it make sense, I mean does the inference made from the reported drop in UE make sense? Does 9.5% dropping to 9.4% mean an improvement, if the reason for the drop is that we stopped including a large number of long-term unemployed people in the sample population? Does the drop in reported job losses mean anything when the number is cut way down due to birth-death adjustments that assume economic dynamics that are no longer evident in many sectors of the economy?
The a** clowns on CNBC and Obama Bin Laden's financial Apple Dumpling Gang would have us believe that this is all some sign of improvement.
..however, in this economy, people tend to hold on to what they have saved. The reason people want financing is so that they can "build" the business without putting out all of their capital in one shot. So to speak, let the banks pay for your business while you build it.
I think people are spending just fine in this economy, it is rather a few years ago where people (and businesses) were spending stupidly. People are still spending, but they are thinking more about their spending.
Perhaps, your business model only works in an environment where money is cheap and spent freely? I would think that under scrutiny spending $5~$7 for a "business model" for a small business start-up would not make too much sense. Then again, I don't know why someone would want to even start a business unless they had a business idea (including the business model) already mapped out.
Understanding how the numbers are cooked doesn't seem to keep the pundits on bubblevision from holding up a drop in headline (U-3) UE as some sort of signpost on the road to victory.
Saying the numbers are "cooked" implies that they are manipulated, but they are not. It would not be too difficult for a private firm to collect the same data using the same methodology to see whether the they were being faked. The methodology is clearly stated and applied, the issue that you think "does not make sense" makes complete sense if you know the methodology being used.
The unemployment figures are as advertised. Your problem seems to be that they are mischaracterized by the media, but that is a different issue entirely. The media has been almost bipolar during this recession. Around 6 months ago they are crying "Depression 2.0", now they are talking about some sort of robust recovery. In either case is just hyperbole, but that is what gets people watching.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south
When I ask does it make sense, I mean does the inference made from the reported drop in UE make sense? Does 9.5% dropping to 9.4% mean an improvement
The month-to-month numbers are noisy, so a change from month-to-month should always be taken with a grain of salt. That is true in either direction. This is very likely just noise and the rate should continue to increase over the coming months. But initial claims have been declining for a bit now, so there are some real signs that the economy is starting to stabilize. Looking at the unemployment rate to get a sense of where the economy is going is like looking in your rear view mirror while driving...
I don't blame Obama for talking it up, he is trying to get things done and this gives in a bit of capital to do so.
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