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I don't know about market timers but Roubini did call it right back in 2006.
You see when times are good no one wants to listen to any doomsayers.
I had read Roubini's speech to the IMF and didn't pay much mind. But when the market started getting wonky in 2007 I got out to sit on the sidelines and went back and re-read it.
ha ha and he has been dead wrong ever since .. he hasnt called anything correct since then. following his advice would have hurt you if you fled the markets..
same with bill grosses predictions for 2009 and 2010.. and i quote , weak markets with single digit gains at best... markets are up over 100% with many many issues up 160% to over 300% .....
these guys cant predict anything consistanly about the future and the sooner the robots that follow these predictions get it throgh their heads the better off they will be.
elaine gazzarelli and marty zweig were two great predictors of the crash of 1987. they were hero's. well that was until they couldnt make another correct call for a decade and their careers were over.
jimhcom dont mis-understand the doom and gloomer we are talking about. contrarian investors are still investors and they will do fine. in fact im a contrarian too... i bought in 2008 when everyone else was running for the hills. i have been buying gold when it wasnt on the radar since 1987, i just rebalanced my permanent portfolio buying long term treasuries when people are running for the exits from those markets,... buying low and selling high isnt being a doom and gloomer. ... the people im refering to dont invest in anything. THEY JUST COMPLAIN. personally not knowing anything about you i cant say which group your in but on the surface you appear like those doom and gloomers and not a contrarian investor.
the chicken littles look at every negative piece of crap and fly it like a flag hoping it comes true so they can watch others fail for not listening to their crap. lots of folks make lots of dough shorting stocks. that doesnt mean they are doom and gloomers. or they may just be sour on something at the moment or going forward but they go find other things they do like and invest in that area. thats all good. as long as they have a strategy and plan they can be very successful. many hedge funds do just that.
i can almost bet if we could look at the financial lives of most here who fly that flag, its not because they are contrarian investors and making lots of dough its more likely what they have achieved financially is not so hot and so they blame everything,every event and politcal parties for their financial ills.,.
Last edited by mathjak107; 02-05-2011 at 08:55 AM..
I don't know about market timers but Roubini did call it right back in 2006.
If you call something every year you'll eventually probably get it right.
Dude called the stock market a suckers rally in March 2009, you would have missed huge opportunities if you had listened to him:
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is likely to drop to 600 or lower this year as the global recession intensifies, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis. The benchmark index for U.S. stocks would have to slump 12 percent from last week’s closing level to meet his forecast. Roubini is assuming that companies in the S&P 500 will report profit of $50 a share this year and investors will pay 12 times that for equities.
“My main scenario is that it’s highly likely it goes to 600 or below,” Roubini said today in an interview at the Chicago Board Options Exchange Risk Management Conference in Dana Point, California. A level of “500 is less likely, but there is some possibility you get there.”
well we gave him 2 years and still couldnt get it right, lets try 3 years.
oooh please ,its like show business with most of these guys. bill gross runs the largest bond fund in the country,does anyone expect him to say flee bonds for stock?
just think about the logic of bill gross who loves munis now vs meridith whitney who also is a soothsayer who feels 100 billion in muni defaults are the order of the day this year and they both look at the same data and have opposite visions. they both failed to call things right the last two years even with opposing views. how do you get those odds wrong lol....
its like watching kramer-its pure entertainment. interesting enough on the ray lucia show they were talking about the accuracy of predictions of the prominent market movers and the best came in at 46%. that means a coin toss gave you better odds then anyone of them being correct in any given year.
Last edited by mathjak107; 02-05-2011 at 11:48 AM..
the best was there was an interview with nurial rubini after he was a financial profit and they asked him what he did with his own investments to benefit from his fabulous prediction ...?
he said basically nothing different,he follows his usual asset allocation plan and runs with that.... read that again ... he doesnt even put his own money into action following his own advice.... yet investors all over the world react to this crap because the guy made 1 good call and now they put their life savings at risk listening to him when he wont even put his own money on that path.... its comical...
so far meridith whitney made 13 wrong calls and 6 correct calls about markets and stocks according to bloomburg who tracks the high profile gurus.
thats right only 33% . guru abby cohen has even a more dismal record the last couple of years... the best of the lot,hold your laughter ,jim kramer at 43%
peter schiff was down in the obscure as well. elaine garzarrelli was let go from sachs for poor performance after her historical call getting her clients out before the crash in 1987 and was later gone from the next company too she went with. .... ill take the coin toss thank you and increase my odds greatly.
these guys cant predict anything consistanly about the future and the sooner the robots that follow these predictions get it throgh their heads the better off they will be.
This reminds me of a scam I read about in a book titled Innumeracy awhile back. The scam worked something like this. Now don't get hung up with the numbers I'm using becasue I'm just making them up to illustrate the inner workings of the scam as I recall it.
The self procalimed financial expert initially sent out 64,000 newsletters with half of them predicting that the market would go up, and the other half predicting that the market will fall. No matter how it plays out, the guru has proven himself right to 32,000 readers. Now he does the same thing with those 32,000 readers. To 16,000 of them he predicts a market rise and to the other 16,000 he predicts the market will fall. Again, no matter how things play out, he has now proven his market savvy to 16,000 readers two months in a row. So he repeats this strategy 3 more times. At this point his predictions have been perfect for five consecutive months to 2000 readers. Now he offers those 2000 readers a chance of a lifetime....get my next surefire winner for just $10,000 and you'll be set for life. The scamster walks into the sunset with $20,000,000 and 1000 of his readers also come out as big winners, while the other 1000 readers got sucker punched to the tune of $10,000 plus whatever amount they invested in the surefire winner. OUCH!
Last edited by CosmicWizard; 02-05-2011 at 03:52 PM..
Its funny one of my favorite authors harry browne who wrote why the best-laid investment plans usually go wrong had the same blurb in the book.
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