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Old 02-07-2008, 05:22 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,338 posts, read 93,582,688 times
Reputation: 17830

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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewAgeRedneck View Post
Are you referring to Harry Dent, the author who predicted a dow of 40,000 in one of his books?
I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Dow 40,000 in 12 years. It's 12,200 now, doubles every seven years at 10%. (Of course this assumes it averages 10%, but that's historical average.)

Dow 100,000 in a around 20 years.

Problem is, someone forgot to tell that to the Nekkei.


 
Old 02-07-2008, 05:36 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 5,269,400 times
Reputation: 1703
I forecast, with a high degree of certainty, a well-defined peak at N38°50.424 W105°02.576...

That would be Pikes Peak, the peak I'm really most interested in right now.

Of course the view of El Plomo, a glacial peak in the central Andes, out my window mitigates the pangs of want a little bit.
 
Old 02-07-2008, 05:48 PM
 
166 posts, read 419,228 times
Reputation: 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
I forecast, with a high degree of certainty, a well-defined peak at N38°50.424 W105°02.576...

That would be Pikes Peak, the peak I'm really most interested in right now.

Of course the view of El Plomo, a glacial peak in the central Andes, out my window mitigates the pangs of want a little bit.
LOL! hey, i'll take any peak 14er!
 
Old 02-09-2008, 08:06 AM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 5,269,400 times
Reputation: 1703
I ran across this website in the local paper, which had an interesting, albeit shallow, discussion of the ruralization vs urbanization future trend.

The Vertical Farm Project - Agriculture for the 21st Century and Beyond...

This one would seem to cast some doubt on sweeping assumptions of continued inefficiencies in commercial agriculture in the future.
 
Old 02-10-2008, 07:17 AM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,338 posts, read 93,582,688 times
Reputation: 17830
Interesting article in this morning's Los Angeles Times about a potential reduction in housing demand due to baby boomer demographics.

Los Angeles Times: A baby-boomer bubble is forecast (http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/printedition/la-re-lew10feb10,0,6318252,print.story - broken link)

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Bugmenot.com - login with these free web passwords to bypass compulsory registration

I'm going to throw this one in too as it fits in with the context of some of the earlier posts:

Los Angeles Times: Time to revive '30s relief plan for borrowers facing default? (http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/printedition/la-re-lew3feb03,0,2682861,print.story - broken link)
 
Old 02-10-2008, 08:46 AM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 5,269,400 times
Reputation: 1703
Thanks for posting those Charles.

The boomer dynamic really needs some serious thought...we're close enough now to the leading edge of the wave of boomer retirements we can't think of this as a future problem anymore. Unless we believe that there's some real difference in the behavior of these up-and-coming seniors from those immediately preceding them, it's a very reasonable and straight-forward proposition seeing some of the challenges coming at us.

Challenges like Social Security, which we have talked about without acting for decades now.

The probabilities of a growing wave of seniors selling and migrating south aren't too hard to foresee...and that wave will likely be exacerbated by the re-emergence of affordable housing in Florida and Arizona after the housing depression smoke clears. So a smart forecaster will look at where the relatively affluent upper-middle aged demographic is housed--the lower income middle-aged probably either won't own homes, or may lack the means to migrate in large numbers. To me, that suggests a lot of higher-end houses in colder climes hitting the market after a market-wide realignment of credit standards that is dramatically reducing the supply of viable customers able to pay high-end prices. The timing in 2011 and beyond appears to tack this market stressor right onto the back side of the pay option ARM implosion which should occur between 2009-2012.

And the hits just keep right on coming.

But not to worry, the NAR says we're bouncing along the bottom for a little while more with a recovery right around the corner.
 
Old 02-10-2008, 01:02 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 29,418,672 times
Reputation: 9306
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
Thanks for posting those Charles.

The boomer dynamic really needs some serious thought...we're close enough now to the leading edge of the wave of boomer retirements we can't think of this as a future problem anymore. Unless we believe that there's some real difference in the behavior of these up-and-coming seniors from those immediately preceding them, it's a very reasonable and straight-forward proposition seeing some of the challenges coming at us.

Challenges like Social Security, which we have talked about without acting for decades now.

The probabilities of a growing wave of seniors selling and migrating south aren't too hard to foresee...and that wave will likely be exacerbated by the re-emergence of affordable housing in Florida and Arizona after the housing depression smoke clears. So a smart forecaster will look at where the relatively affluent upper-middle aged demographic is housed--the lower income middle-aged probably either won't own homes, or may lack the means to migrate in large numbers. To me, that suggests a lot of higher-end houses in colder climes hitting the market after a market-wide realignment of credit standards that is dramatically reducing the supply of viable customers able to pay high-end prices. The timing in 2011 and beyond appears to tack this market stressor right onto the back side of the pay option ARM implosion which should occur between 2009-2012.

And the hits just keep right on coming.

But not to worry, the NAR says we're bouncing along the bottom for a little while more with a recovery right around the corner.
I don't think the retirement years of the baby-boomers may be near as sanguine as many think. First, they have a lot of their supposed retirement savings directly or indirectly (through IRA's, 401K's, pension funds, etc.) invested in lot of the same toxic, rotting meat that has created the current bubble--residential and commercial real-estate investment "vehicles" (they used to be called "schemes," a less complimentary but probably more descriptive adjective), inflated stocks, junk bonds, etc. Second, the old adage of "investing for the long-term" may become a real problem when oldsters are forced to liquidate those securities at depressed prices to meet their living obligations. Finally, of course, the same depression in stocks/real estate will whack tax and social security revenues at the same time the obligations of those funds will be skyrocketing to stratospheric levels. Like the generation that reached senior citizenship in the late 1920's, Baby Boomers may find that the prosperous times were at the beginning and middle of their lives, with big-time hardship making the bookend for the end of their lives. And, for the Gen-X'er's, Millenials, etc. that are following the Boomers--well, there won't be much of anything left.

I don't think the Sun Belt will be any retirement haven, either. Many would strongly argue that much of such sunbelt states as Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California are becoming less livable by the minute right now. Throw drastically higher energy prices--especially for gasoline and electricity--onto that car-dependent, air-conditioning-necessary, sprawled lifestyle, and the Sun Belt will turn into the Swelter and Sweat Belt pretty fast. Houses could be free and people might not want to live there. That, of course, assumes that there will be "retirement" for most people. 20 or 30 years of being able to sit on one's butt in retirement is a relatively recent concept. When Social Security was instituted as an "old age retirement supplement" (not even a full-pension) program in 1936, many people weren't expected to (or did) live long enough to collect it for any more than a very few years, at best. I wouldn't be surprised to see the retirement age for Social Security and most private pensions rising to 80 years old within the next 15-25 years.

Truth is, I foresee a lot of Baby-boomers and subsequent generations living their "golden years" in a place they never expected--with their adult children, wherever that might be. I think the "extended family" all living under one roof will probably, by necessity, make a big comeback in the years ahead. To the extent that we, as a nation and as individuals, continue our over-consumptive, hedonistic, debt-fueled ways, I think the more likely some really tough sledding will be ahead for "retirees" and everyone else.
 
Old 02-10-2008, 01:37 PM
 
Location: Colorado Springs, CO
2,221 posts, read 5,269,400 times
Reputation: 1703
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
I don't think the retirement years of the baby-boomers may be near as sanguine as many think.
For some, you are correct. The smart ones have either already liquidated their stocks are are doing so now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
I don't think the Sun Belt will be any retirement haven, either. Many would strongly argue that much of such sunbelt states as Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California are becoming less livable by the minute right now. Throw drastically higher energy prices--especially for gasoline and electricity--onto that car-dependent, air-conditioning-necessary, sprawled lifestyle, and the Sun Belt will turn into the Swelter and Sweat Belt pretty fast. Houses could be free and people might not want to live there.
A small house in AZ with a swamp cooler like the one we had when I grew up there is pretty comfortable and energy-efficient. Lots of senior communities out there with all the amenities within easy reach by electric cart...and there are lots of those golf carts on the roads in those areas. I think that sort of communal set-up is going to persist through the difficulties ahead.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
That, of course, assumes that there will be "retirement" for most people. 20 or 30 years of being able to sit on one's butt in retirement is a relatively recent concept. When Social Security was instituted as an "old age retirement supplement" (not even a full-pension) program in 1936, many people weren't expected to (or did) live long enough to collect it for any more than a very few years, at best. I wouldn't be surprised to see the retirement age for Social Security and most private pensions rising to 80 years old within the next 15-25 years.
As long as the population pyramid remains inverted, and considering that the AARP crowd votes in percentages that dwarf the youngsters, don't bet on it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
Truth is, I foresee a lot of Baby-boomers and subsequent generations living their "golden years" in a place they never expected--with their adult children, wherever that might be. I think the "extended family" all living under one roof will probably, by necessity, make a big comeback in the years ahead. To the extent that we, as a nation and as individuals, continue our over-consumptive, hedonistic, debt-fueled ways, I think the more likely some really tough sledding will be ahead for "retirees" and everyone else.
I foresee the same for "a lot" of them...particularly those who succumbed to the delusional popular manias and herd mentality. But again, I go back to my studies of the First Great Depression and note that the majority still thrived during the period, albeit not ostentatiously.

Maybe we'll use the opportunity to rediscover what's important in life...
 
Old 02-10-2008, 01:43 PM
 
26,158 posts, read 48,867,893 times
Reputation: 31654
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
For some, you are correct. The smart ones have either already liquidated their stocks are are doing so now.
Over the past several months we've gotten 80% out, keeping our Canadian Energy Trusts that pay dividends of 10-16%.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
A small house in AZ .... with all the amenities within easy reach by electric cart...and there are lots of those golf carts on the roads in those areas.
We've seen the Del Webb communities in AZ. I keep beating on Del Webb / Pulte to do it here, our climate fits that model.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob from down south View Post
Maybe we'll use the opportunity to rediscover what's important in life...
Yep, good food, good wine, good people.
 
Old 02-10-2008, 03:29 PM
 
Location: CO
2,886 posts, read 7,116,621 times
Reputation: 3987
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
We've seen the Del Webb communities in AZ. I keep beating on Del Webb / Pulte to do it here, our climate fits that model.
Have you visited their Anthem Ranch in Broomfield yet?

Anthem Colorado at Broomfield :: Anthem Ranch (http://www.anthemcolorado.com/ranch.htm - broken link)
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