Democrats Maintain Advantage on Generic Ballot, 48% to 44%

[sanrene]

Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale

Democrats Maintain Advantage on Generic Ballot, 48% to 44%

I'll wait for the usual suspects to come in and tell us why Gallup is lying, or that there's corruption involved, etc.

Outlier;

GOP Maintains Lead on Generic Ballot for Congress

Republicans have a 49% to 43% lead over Democrats among registered voters in Gallup's generic ballot for Congress for the week of Aug. 2-8, the second straight week in which Republicans have held an edge in projected voting.

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale

Democrats Maintain Advantage on Generic Ballot, 48% to 44%

I'll wait for the usual suspects to come in and tell us why Gallup is lying, or that there's corruption involved, etc.

My only problem with Gallup is when they survey "national adults" which to me means any adult who picks up the telephone. To me those polls are meaningless for making Election Day predictions since, for example, for all we know 60% of those people don't vote or aren't even eligible to vote. They usually do that with approval ratings. It looks like this one is registered voters so I don't have a problem with it although likely voters is the ideal group to poll. I also have a problem with pollsters who average polls when the same populations weren't sampled. You shouldn't be averaging polls of "national adults" with polls of "registered voters" and polls of "likely voters."

[sanrene]

Originally Posted by LauraC

My only problem with Gallup is when they survey "national adults" which to me means any adult who picks up the telephone. To me those polls are meaningless for making Election Day predictions since, for example, for all we know 60% of those people don't vote or aren't even eligible to vote. They usually do that with approval ratings. It looks like this one is registered voters so I don't have a problem with it although likely voters is the ideal group to poll. I also have a problem with pollsters who average polls when the same populations weren't sampled. You shouldn't be averaging polls of "national adults" with polls of "registered voters" and polls of "likely voters."

And a survey of adults will always be more favorable to the democrats.

It is OBVIOUS, the generic ballot that had the dems up was an anomaly, now it is back where it has been for the last year, with republicans leading, which is a very good thing.

[LauraC]

"Republican candidates hold a seven-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, August 8, 2010."

46% vs 39% --- Likely Voters

I remind you that Rasmussen, along with Pew, I believe, came the closest in predicting the 2008 Presidential election

Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen Reports™

"The number of Republicans in the United States slipped a point during July, while the number of unaffiliated voters gained a point. Overall, the numbers signal a high level of stability in the parties as there have been only modest shifts throughout 2010."

You can see the weekly generic ballot results going all the way back to 1/2009.

[BuffaloTransplant]

Originally Posted by sanrene

Told you - it was an anomaly;

GOP Resumes Favorable Standing on Generic Ballot



Something for you to ponder.

The spanking democrats took in 1994? The republicans were slightly behind in generic polling on election eve. An actually lead portends disaster for the dems.

The only real poll is what happens on ELECTION DAY

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by BuffaloTransplant

The only real poll is what happens on ELECTION DAY

Actually, remember what happened in the exit polling in the 2004 Presidential election?

[pghquest]

Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale

Democrats Maintain Advantage on Generic Ballot, 48% to 44%

I'll wait for the usual suspects to come in and tell us why Gallup is lying, or that there's corruption involved, etc.

You might want to check out the WSJ in the morning, I heard they are going to have a story talking about how americans are starting to blame Democrats for the economic situation.

[DaBurgh]

Gallup is lying, or that there's corruption involved, etc