
08-10-2010, 08:57 AM
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Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 38,651,005 times
Reputation: 7106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale
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Outlier;
GOP Maintains Lead on Generic Ballot for Congress
Quote:
Republicans have a 49% to 43% lead over Democrats among registered voters in Gallup's generic ballot for Congress for the week of Aug. 2-8, the second straight week in which Republicans have held an edge in projected voting.
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08-10-2010, 09:59 AM
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Location: Tennessee
34,017 posts, read 32,571,031 times
Reputation: 50100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale
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My only problem with Gallup is when they survey "national adults" which to me means any adult who picks up the telephone. To me those polls are meaningless for making Election Day predictions since, for example, for all we know 60% of those people don't vote or aren't even eligible to vote. They usually do that with approval ratings. It looks like this one is registered voters so I don't have a problem with it although likely voters is the ideal group to poll. I also have a problem with pollsters who average polls when the same populations weren't sampled. You shouldn't be averaging polls of "national adults" with polls of "registered voters" and polls of "likely voters."
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08-10-2010, 10:02 AM
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Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 38,651,005 times
Reputation: 7106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC
My only problem with Gallup is when they survey "national adults" which to me means any adult who picks up the telephone. To me those polls are meaningless for making Election Day predictions since, for example, for all we know 60% of those people don't vote or aren't even eligible to vote. They usually do that with approval ratings. It looks like this one is registered voters so I don't have a problem with it although likely voters is the ideal group to poll. I also have a problem with pollsters who average polls when the same populations weren't sampled. You shouldn't be averaging polls of "national adults" with polls of "registered voters" and polls of "likely voters."
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And a survey of adults will always be more favorable to the democrats.
It is OBVIOUS, the generic ballot that had the dems up was an anomaly, now it is back where it has been for the last year, with republicans leading, which is a very good thing.
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08-10-2010, 11:02 AM
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Location: Tennessee
34,017 posts, read 32,571,031 times
Reputation: 50100
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"Republican candidates hold a seven-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, August 8, 2010."
46% vs 39% --- Likely Voters
I remind you that Rasmussen, along with Pew, I believe, came the closest in predicting the 2008 Presidential election
Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen Reports™
"The number of Republicans in the United States slipped a point during July, while the number of unaffiliated voters gained a point. Overall, the numbers signal a high level of stability in the parties as there have been only modest shifts throughout 2010."
You can see the weekly generic ballot results going all the way back to 1/2009.
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08-10-2010, 11:59 PM
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4,135 posts, read 9,161,915 times
Reputation: 2677
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene
Told you - it was an anomaly;
GOP Resumes Favorable Standing on Generic Ballot
Something for you to ponder.
The spanking democrats took in 1994? The republicans were slightly behind in generic polling on election eve. An actually lead portends disaster for the dems.
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The only real poll is what happens on ELECTION DAY
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08-11-2010, 11:10 AM
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Location: Tennessee
34,017 posts, read 32,571,031 times
Reputation: 50100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuffaloTransplant
The only real poll is what happens on ELECTION DAY
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Actually, remember what happened in the exit polling in the 2004 Presidential election?
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08-11-2010, 09:47 PM
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69,372 posts, read 53,907,701 times
Reputation: 9358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale
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You might want to check out the WSJ in the morning, I heard they are going to have a story talking about how americans are starting to blame Democrats for the economic situation. 
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08-11-2010, 11:39 PM
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1,806 posts, read 2,120,594 times
Reputation: 1329
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Gallup is lying, or that there's corruption involved, etc
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