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Old 10-09-2010, 05:26 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
33,949 posts, read 32,392,016 times
Reputation: 49901

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
1. They polled the entire state, not just Erie.

2. WGRZ did not conduct the poll, they reported on it. The poll was commissioned by two Newspapers, one in Rochester, one in White Plains and was conducted by Survey USA.

3. As far as my uber uber GOP sample. The poll had 9% more Democrats than Republicans. In NY the Democrats have a 25 point registration advantage. The gap on Election Day will be closer than the 25 point registration gap, but it sure as hell isn't going to be anywhere close to just 9.

4. The same pollster (Survey USA) just released a new poll on this race. It shows Gillibrand up by 19.

5. In fact ever since the one poll that showed the race a dead heat, six polls have come out. All six show Gillibrand up by double digits. The last three polls have her up by 19, 21 and 14.
The FOX News article that I previously quoted was the Survey USA poll you mentioned and Quinnipiac. The latter showed Gillibrand leading 48-42...but that was waaaaay back on September 23. In this election if it wasn't yesterday's poll it's old news.

I think election night TV coverage may be more exciting than the Fall TV season. I only hope they don't just cover what they consider to be the "big races." That is such a disappointment when they do that. I don't expect analysis but I at least expect to see the results even if it's just the moving info at the bottom of the screen.
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Old 10-09-2010, 11:19 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,697 posts, read 14,816,085 times
Reputation: 3843
Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
The FOX News article that I previously quoted was the Survey USA poll you mentioned and Quinnipiac. The latter showed Gillibrand leading 48-42...but that was waaaaay back on September 23. In this election if it wasn't yesterday's poll it's old news.

I think election night TV coverage may be more exciting than the Fall TV season. I only hope they don't just cover what they consider to be the "big races." That is such a disappointment when they do that. I don't expect analysis but I at least expect to see the results even if it's just the moving info at the bottom of the screen.
The poll that was mentioned in the Fox News article was an old Survey USA poll. Survey USA has since released a new poll on the race. In Survey USA's new poll, Gillibrand is up by 19. Quinnipiac has also released a new poll on this race, and she is up 21 in that poll. Even during the time of the article, other polls had Gillibrand up big, Fox News just decided to ignore those polls, and only mentioned the two closest polls.

Anyway this race isn't competitive. The last six polls on this race, all show Gillibrand up by double digits.
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Old 10-10-2010, 01:32 PM
 
Location: NY
12,263 posts, read 8,993,597 times
Reputation: 8015
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale View Post
This is probably a boring answer: Yes, she can be beaten. Is it likely? No, not even close.
Sadly, I agree.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
I'm just disappointed that the GOP hasn't tried harder in this big state.
I'm disappointed too, but the GOP in NY was neutered years ago
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Old 10-12-2010, 09:39 PM
 
4,135 posts, read 9,120,662 times
Reputation: 2677
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
1. They polled the entire state, not just Erie.

2. WGRZ did not conduct the poll, they reported on it. The poll was commissioned by two Newspapers, one in Rochester, one in White Plains and was conducted by Survey USA.

3. As far as my uber uber GOP sample. The poll had 9% more Democrats than Republicans. In NY the Democrats have a 25 point registration advantage. The gap on Election Day will be closer than the 25 point registration gap, but it sure as hell isn't going to be anywhere close to just 9.

4. The same pollster (Survey USA) just released a new poll on this race. It shows Gillibrand up by 19.

5. In fact ever since the one poll that showed the race a dead heat, six polls have come out. All six show Gillibrand up by double digits. The last three polls have her up by 19, 21 and 14.
The only poll that counts is Election Night and I hope to God she winds up jobless.,
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