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Old 09-27-2010, 09:24 AM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
5,151 posts, read 7,222,453 times
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Brown tops Whitman by 5 points in governor's race and Senator Boxer ahead of Fiorina by 8 points. Voters also favor marijuana legalization by seven points.
UPDATE 1-New poll smiles on California Democrats | Reuters
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Old 09-27-2010, 11:29 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 39,603,088 times
Reputation: 7107
Gosh darn, I was so hoping someone would post this poll,so I could show them HOW this "pollster" got that result;

Let us look at the party ID breakdown;

55D/9I/35R.

A 20 point gap between the Ds and Rs is no big deal in blue CA you say?

Now, we all realize a "red" wave is coming (hopefully), but do we think CA would be immune to that wave, do we think CA, in this political environment, would be MORE inclined to favor the dems MORE than they did on election night 2008?

Exit poll, Nov 2008; 42D/28I/30R - a 12 point gap.

Now, I guess we could suspend belief and say that CA dems are more motivated to vote NOW than they were on Nov 4th 2008.

Amazing what the LAT/USC (huh?) had to do to come up with boxer by 8 and brown by 5.



Let this be a lesson to you - ALWAYS look at the methodology of a poll.
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Old 09-27-2010, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,983 posts, read 83,656,005 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tigerlily View Post
Brown tops Whitman by 5 points in governor's race and Senator Boxer ahead of Fiorina by 8 points. Voters also favor marijuana legalization by seven points.
UPDATE 1-New poll smiles on California Democrats | Reuters
Does any of this surprise you? Right now the Democrats and unions have ahold of Ca and as for pot, who really cares? It is as good as legal anyway. Now that I have said that, we will wait and see what happens in 5 weeks.

Nita
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Old 09-27-2010, 02:42 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
5,151 posts, read 7,222,453 times
Reputation: 3514
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Gosh darn, I was so hoping someone would post this poll,so I could show them HOW this "pollster" got that result;


Now, I guess we could suspend belief and say that CA dems are more motivated to vote NOW than they were on Nov 4th 2008.
You're right. Cali Dems are motivated.
Clip:
There is a ballot initiative in California this year, Proposition 19, which would legalize the possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal consumption. The initiative, which polls suggest is a favorite to pass, might be motivating more young voters to show interest in this year’s elections, and that may translate into more support for Mr. Brown and Ms. Boxer, even though both have come out opposed to the initiative (as have the Republican candidates).
Analyzing Whitman's Questions About California Poll - NYTimes.com
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Old 09-27-2010, 02:47 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 39,603,088 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tigerlily View Post
You're right. Cali Dems are motivated.
Clip:
There is a ballot initiative in California this year, Proposition 19, which would legalize the possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal consumption. The initiative, which polls suggest is a favorite to pass, might be motivating more young voters to show interest in this year’s elections, and that may translate into more support for Mr. Brown and Ms. Boxer, even though both have come out opposed to the initiative (as have the Republican candidates).
Analyzing Whitman's Questions About California Poll - NYTimes.com
And....you think that justifies a 20 point gap? Even MORE motivated than they were in 2008?
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Old 09-27-2010, 03:03 PM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
22,891 posts, read 16,278,817 times
Reputation: 12807
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Gosh darn, I was so hoping someone would post this poll,so I could show them HOW this "pollster" got that result;

Let us look at the party ID breakdown;

55D/9I/35R.

A 20 point gap between the Ds and Rs is no big deal in blue CA you say?

Now, we all realize a "red" wave is coming (hopefully), but do we think CA would be immune to that wave, do we think CA, in this political environment, would be MORE inclined to favor the dems MORE than they did on election night 2008?

Exit poll, Nov 2008; 42D/28I/30R - a 12 point gap.

Now, I guess we could suspend belief and say that CA dems are more motivated to vote NOW than they were on Nov 4th 2008.

Amazing what the LAT/USC (huh?) had to do to come up with boxer by 8 and brown by 5.



Let this be a lesson to you - ALWAYS look at the methodology of a poll.
And what exactly is it about the methodology that is nagging at you? 55% of the people polled were 'likely voters' and the published results were among those voters - isn't that exactly what your favorite polling outfit does?
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Old 09-27-2010, 03:34 PM
 
516 posts, read 306,342 times
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The dems destroyed the once golden state. Now, they're trying to make sure their base stays stoned. Helluva party.
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Old 09-27-2010, 04:34 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 39,603,088 times
Reputation: 7107
Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerLily24 View Post
And what exactly is it about the methodology that is nagging at you? 55% of the people polled were 'likely voters' and the published results were among those voters - isn't that exactly what your favorite polling outfit does?
The 20 point gap is not reality. If you look at the exit polls from 2008, do you really think the democrats are MORE jazzed up to vote NOW?

Put that party Id split where it should be and the race is a TIE at best for the dems - that's the ONLY way they could get brown and boxer leading, by skewing the party ID.
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Old 09-27-2010, 04:49 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,031 posts, read 15,489,709 times
Reputation: 3957
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
The 20 point gap is not reality. If you look at the exit polls from 2008, do you really think the democrats are MORE jazzed up to vote NOW?

Put that party Id split where it should be and the race is a TIE at best for the dems - that's the ONLY way they could get brown and boxer leading, by skewing the party ID.
The gap is not 20 points, its 8 points

Quote:
Originally Posted by LA Times Poll
The pool of likely voters is 44% registered Democrats, 36% registered Republicans and 16% registered as Decline to State. That eight-point spread between registered Democrats and Republicans compares to a 13-percentage point spread in the electorate as a whole.
Brown leads Whitman 49%-44% in poll - latimes.com
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Old 09-27-2010, 07:28 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 39,603,088 times
Reputation: 7107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
The gap is not 20 points, its 8 points


Wrong. Did you bother looking at the poll?

http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2010-09/56364325.pdf (broken link)

Page 13, question 59.

Their sample consists of 55% democrat, 35% republican and 9% Indie. That's a 20 point chasm and totally incredible.

Who to believe? The Times write up or the actual poll document?
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