Early voting gives edge to Democrats.. (Harry Reid, unemployment, voters, Congress)
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Hmm..I find this interesting..REAL interesting. What was that about an enthusiasm gap again?
Now, I'm not saying this isn't going to be a Republican year, but perhaps that GOP landslide isn't going to materialize after all. And nobody can tell me that if they fail to take either chamber, it can't be considered a devastating defeat..
Quote:
An analysis of the more than 3 million ballots that have already been cast across the country "give Democrats an edge in a number of states and big counties.
The Democrats -- who are fighting to keep control of the U.S. House and Senate -- also had success with early voting during President Obama's election in 2008.
"If people thought the Democrats were just going to roll over and play dead in this election, that's not what we're seeing," said Michael McDonald, a George Mason University professor who tracks early voting nationally, according to the AP dispatch. "They've got to be feeling a little bit better with the numbers that they're seeing."
My theory is that the segment of Dem voters who collect government handouts are politically apathetic.They came across as unlikely voters in political surveys. But due to the Dems strong "get out the vote" campaign a lot of these welfare queen types will in fact vote. (The educated affluent Democrats were probably going to vote anway).At the same time all the landslide predictions might be causing some Reps to stay home. I don't want it to be, but it wouldn't shock me if things are closer than the pundits were expecting.
Analysts in both parties say all major indicators tilt toward the Republicans. President Barack Obama's policies are widely unpopular. Congress, run by the Democrats, rates even lower. Fear and anger over unemployment and deep deficits are energizing conservative voters; liberals are demoralized.
Two separate polls released Tuesday tell the same grim story for Democrats: Prepare to lose in the November midterm elections.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll gives the GOP a 53%-40% advantage over Democrats in this year's congressional races, the largest gap in that poll since 1981.
What’s more, Republicans appear to be benefiting from the public’s pessimistic mood, as approximately six in 10 registered voters think that the country is on the wrong track, and that the economy will get worse or stay the same in the next 12 months.
“Election Day is coming, the hurricane force has not diminished and it is going to hit the Democrats head on,” said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
“It’s hard to say that the Democrats are facing anything less than a Category 4 hurricane,” Hart added.
My theory is that the segment of Dem voters who collect government handouts are politically apathetic.They came across as unlikely voters in political surveys. But due to the Dems strong "get out the vote" campaign a lot of these welfare queen types will in fact vote. (The educated affluent Democrats were probably going to vote anway).At the same time all the landslide predictions might be causing some Reps to stay home. I don't want it to be, but it wouldn't shock me if things are closer than the pundits were expecting.
I agree that its going to be closer, but somewhat disagree with the reasoning.
Quite a few of the likely voter models were enthusiasm based, now some of those liberal educated voters who were likely going to vote anyway, may have come across as not being enthusiastic in some of these surveys and as such not counted as a likely voter, even though they actually were. Some of these voters are now being considered as more enthusiastic and appearing in some of these surveys which they were not previously. This might be why you have seen races in which the GOP pretty much led throughout now become dead heats (Colorado, Pennsylvania, perhaps Wisconsin as well). At this point its more evident in the Senate than in the House.
Earth to Gixxer1K.. I'm well aware of the polling data and predictions of Republican wins. This thread is about a Democratic edge in early voting, which may just indicate that when it's all said and done, GOP gains will be smaller than expected..
Earth to Gixxer1K.. I'm well aware of the polling data and predictions of Republican wins. This thread is about a Democratic edge in early voting, which may just indicate that when it's all said and done, GOP gains will be smaller than expected..
Get it now? Thanks.
Earth to Upton.....I wouldn't be so sure of that,even here in Liberal Mass. all the Dems. are falling behind. If it can happen here what's that say for the other states!
In Clark County, which is heavily Democratic, more Democrats than Republicans have voted, but Republicans are outperforming their share of the electorate.
Out of the nearly 47,000 votes cast in Clark County, 46 percent were Democrats, 39 percent Republicans, according to the Clark County Election Department. But while Democrats make up 46 percent of the county's registered voters, Republicans constitute just 33 percent.
Must be careful;
In a state like NC, where dems out Rep and Indies in voter registration, certainly doesn't mean those dems are voting for the D.
Hmm..I find this interesting..REAL interesting. What was that about an enthusiasm gap again?
Now, I'm not saying this isn't going to be a Republican year, but perhaps that GOP landslide isn't going to materialize after all. And nobody can tell me that if they fail to take either chamber, it can't be considered a devastating defeat..
Early voting never has and probably never will give the edge to Democrats. The article is based on the views of a very liberal professor in case you didn't realize that and it is in USA today which is almost a liberal as the NY Times and LA Times, but don't tell them that.
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