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"The idea behind early voting is that by making it easier for people to vote, you will ensure that more people do so. Somewhat surprisingly, in the real world, it may not be working out that way. Early voters were more educated and older and had higher incomes, all traits associated with a higher probability of voting...Even with all of the added convenience and easier opportunities to cast ballots, turnout not only doesn't increase with early voting, it actually falls. How can this be? It turns out that early voting mitigates the impact of get-out-the-vote mechanisms, and it also diminishes the impact of 'Election Day'."
So what do you think, does early voting increase voter turnout, doesn't change it, just shifts the same voters around, or decreases overall turnout?
We don't have early voting here in NY so I have no experience with it. I also think you really can make that many comparisons yet since early voting is generally a new concept. Turnout was up in 2008 pretty much across the board.
One thing I think you need to do in looking at early voting is compare any changes from one election to the next in areas that have early voting and areas that don't. However, you also need to take into consideration things like how competitive various races are. You could pick a state that has more early voting this year than they did in 06, but they may have had competitive races in 06 and don't have as many competitive races this year, so if turnout is down from 06 you really can't say oh its early voting.
Too many variables come into play and unless you take them all into consideration and compare them I don't think you can really make any kind of argument either way on the impact early voting has, especially since its relatively new.
It likely increases turnout simply because it makes it more convenient. I doubt it would have any impact on who votes or what candidates or issues, they opt for. One thing it may do, it could well gen up phony cries of voter fraud.
People have to be re-programmed that early voting exists. Instead of saying vote NOVEMBER 2nd, they should say vote from date range a to b on TV. People shouldn't have to go to a website every time to check. It should be ingrained in the American psyche through TV, radio, newspapers, internet etc. every single time Midterm voting is mentioned.
"The idea behind early voting is that by making it easier for people to vote, you will ensure that more people do so. Somewhat surprisingly, in the real world, it may not be working out that way. Early voters were more educated and older and had higher incomes, all traits associated with a higher probability of voting...Even with all of the added convenience and easier opportunities to cast ballots, turnout not only doesn't increase with early voting, it actually falls. How can this be? It turns out that early voting mitigates the impact of get-out-the-vote mechanisms, and it also diminishes the impact of 'Election Day'."
So what do you think, does early voting increase voter turnout, doesn't change it, just shifts the same voters around, or decreases overall turnout?
"The idea behind early voting is that by making it easier for people to vote, you will ensure that more people do so. Somewhat surprisingly, in the real world, it may not be working out that way. Early voters were more educated and older and had higher incomes, all traits associated with a higher probability of voting...Even with all of the added convenience and easier opportunities to cast ballots, turnout not only doesn't increase with early voting, it actually falls. How can this be? It turns out that early voting mitigates the impact of get-out-the-vote mechanisms, and it also diminishes the impact of 'Election Day'."
So what do you think, does early voting increase voter turnout, doesn't change it, just shifts the same voters around, or decreases overall turnout?
What does the opinion of people on CD matter? The statistics will be out soon enough.
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