Obama to announce he will not run for re-election next week? (African American, party)
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The large, mostly spontaneous gatherings at Truman's depot events were an important sign of a critical change in momentum in the campaign, but this shift went virtually unnoticed by the national press corps, which continued reporting Republican Thomas Dewey's apparent impending victory as a certainty. One reason for the press' inaccurate projection was polls conducted primarily by telephone in a time when many people, including much of Truman's populist base, did not own a telephone.[135] This skewed the data to indicate a stronger support base for Dewey than existed, resulting in an unintended and undetected projection error that may well have contributed to the perception of Truman's bleak chances. The three major polling organizations also stopped polling well before the November 2 election date — Roper in September, and Crossley and Gallup in October — thus failing to measure the very period when Truman appears to have surged past Dewey.
Looking at the electoral map, Truman most much of his EVs in very rural areas of the US, as the hypothesis above purports. That will not be the case of Obama.
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Incumbent presidents almost always get re-elected, even after a scandal. If he's not running again, it's due to pressure from someone who is calling the party shots. It may fear strong republican majorities being elected to the house and senate over the next 4 years due to dissatsfaction with democrat handling of the economic crisis.
I'd expect some kind of "family reasons" as his excuse if he
does announce this.
I'm thinking Obama is going to have to face the same situations Clinton did. I think there's a 50% chance Obama will be re-elected, but he'll have to make peace with the majority GOP Congress. It's my prediction that, at the minimum, the GOP will keep the House and win the Senate. The Presidency looks to be 50/50 right now. We'll know by summer of next year who is the clear frontrunner for the general election. It's all gonna depend on how the economy is doing. Remember, Independents don't care about social issues like the right and the left do. The Independents care that they are gonna keep their job, unemployment goes down so they can start spending more, so far factors not playing into Obama's favor
^Ford was never elected President, so he technically didn't run for 're-election'. But I understand your point.
Since 1900, excluding Ford, only 4 incumbent presidents who ran for re-election lost (Taft, Hoover, Carter, H.W. Bush). Ford was never elected, and Johnson never got the nomination. So, you could say that 6 sitting presidents who sought to be re-elected did fail in the last 110 years. 14 won. So, 6/20 = 30%. Of course this is assuming all the samples were equal. That clearly wasn't the case. Hoover faced a major depression and was creamed. Reagan and Clinton presided over reviving/booming economies and won handily.
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