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do we agree that NYC Orthodox Jews and NYC Russian Jews are very Conservative by any standards not just NYCs
do you think the McCain/Obama percentage of both these groups together is similar to the Obama/McCain voting percentage of NYC non Orthodox or Russian Jews
4 facts
1. many demographers feel this underestimated the orthodox vote
2. Many Russian Jews don't speak Russian at home
3. The Orthodox population has grown tremendously since then
4. I know there is some overlap between these 2 groups but I don't think anyone can assume it makes up for the previous 3
total Jews at 972,000 (page 30)
Jews in Orthodox Jewish houses 331,200 (page 114)
Jews in Russian speaking houses 186,000 (page 65) (127,000 Jewish adults were born in the FSU and 64,000 were born in Eastern Europe (page 62))
Jews in Russian speaking houses plus Jews in Orthodox Jewish households (517,200 for 53.2%)
Not all Orthodox Jews vote the same, or are as conservative as the ultra orthodox sects. Not all Russian Jews are that conservative, they don't vote as a bloc the same way some of the Orthodo sects do (an old college roommate was a Russian Jew from Sheepshead Bay and sure as hell wasn't conservative). You also have many who are considered Russian Jews due to ancestory that goes back a few generations. By in large these aren't all that conservative. You also have a combination of both Russian and Orthodox in some of these numbers.
there was also a Rasmussen poll around the same time that had Obama winning the whole state's Jewish vote at a margin of 55-42 which if you factor in the Jewish areas that are most likely to go each of the 2 candidates NYC would be around 50-50.
In addition in all the gay marriage polls that were done for the whole state of NY the Jewish support for it was between 50-60% and once again was most likely under 50% in NYC.
And again that Rasmussen poll was WAYYYY off the final margin of the state, on top of that when you get into the subsamples of polls, the MOE's get EXTREMELY high in many cases.
Some polls were in the 50-60% range, other polls were above 60%, I will dig that up later when I have more time.
Anyway, while I will agree the Jewish vote in NYC breaks out a bit more conservative than the Jewish vote here on LI, the state or the country mostly due to the Orthodox, I think you are way overestimating how conservative the Jewish vote is in NYC.
Sucks for the Dems then. I don't care who gets it though, as long as they're able to serve their country efficiently. I'll take a member of the Socialist party for all I care.
Not all Orthodox Jews vote the same, or are as conservative as the ultra orthodox sects. Not all Russian Jews are that conservative, they don't vote as a bloc the same way some of the Orthodo sects do (an old college roommate was a Russian Jew from Sheepshead Bay and sure as hell wasn't conservative).
not all non russian, Orthodox Jews are self endangering liberals either I know a few who never would have considered voting for Obama.
Even left wing Modern Orthodox Jews voted more then 50 against McCain
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Jews due to ancestory that goes back a few generations. By in large these aren't all that conservative. You also have a combination of both Russian and Orthodox in some of these numbers.
this is Russian speaking and the second number is people who were born.
I already told you I agree with your second point but it would not alter the numbers that drastically.
Anyway, while I will agree the Jewish vote in NYC breaks out a bit more conservative than the Jewish vote here on LI, the state or the country mostly due to the Orthodox, I think you are way overestimating how conservative the Jewish vote is in NYC.
a bit that's the understatement of the year
let me give you those same numbers of Russians and Orthodox for LI (I know there are a lot of Iranian Conservative's in Great Neck but one many of them are Orthodox and two there are many non orthodox Sephardiem in NY that are also Conservative but wouldn't call themselves Orthodox)
same source as last time
total Jews at 311,000 (page 33)
Jews in Orthodox Jewish houses 34,100 (page 114)
Jews in Russian speaking houses 16,000 (includes Westchester but we'll assume there all in LI) (page 65) (here are the number of jews who speak Russian in LI 11,600)
Jews in Russian speaking houses (I'm including the Westchester number because that's the same stat I used last time and it will help your case not mine) plus Jews in Orthodox Jewish households (50,100 for 16.1% the other one was 53.2%)
Don't you think if the demographics that are Conservative jump from 16.1 to 53.2 that your statement is are way off?
actually this is mostly (in the biggest swing group in the district (at least on the part of the opposition to Weprin, the other side is saying that it's only one vote)) becoming a referendum on same gender marriage
If your going to post a poll, you should at least admit when its a PARTISAN POLL.
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Battle For Weiner’s Seat In Congress Turns Into Referendum On Obama Policies
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Running in a Brooklyn/Queens district that is heavily Democratic and heavily Jewish, Republican congressional candidate Bob Turner got a two-for on Wednesday — the cross-party lines endorsement of Democratic Assemblyman Dov Hikind.
Hikind is a democrat.
Boy would this be the sweetest nectar imaginable?
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