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Old 09-03-2011, 08:21 PM
 
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Those aren't the real numbers though. They have ethnic composition by CD, which doesn't exactly mean that its the Jewish vote, Catholic vote, etc. The Orthodox tend to be heavily concentrated in certain CD's, so the Orthodox vote is generally all going to show up under the Jewish category. However, much of the rest of the Jewish vote in the city, tends to be much more spread out across many ED's, and in many cases not in ED's that are plurality Jewish and therefore aren't counted in the Jewish category.
1. Orthodox plus Russians are now almost half the Jewish electorate in NYC
2. I trust their estimates better then someone who twice missed the EDs that McCain won in FH
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Old 09-03-2011, 08:26 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
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Originally Posted by NY Jew View Post
yes they can turnout
We will see, however, the well educated (and the Dem base in the district tends to be well educated upper middle class Secular Jews and Asians) tend to be one of the strongest groups in turnout. Now, I don't think the GOP is going to have any issues with the Orthodox turnout, however, I don't think the Dems will have much of a problem turning out the base either. I would say if you are going to compare turnout differences from this race from 08, you will likely see a larger dropoff in Howard Beach than you would in Forest Hills.
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Old 09-03-2011, 08:28 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
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Originally Posted by NY Jew View Post
1. Orthodox plus Russians are now almost half the Jewish electorate in NYC
2. I trust their estimates better then someone who twice missed the EDs that McCain won in FH
They basically are only counting Jews in majority Jewish ED's as the ED vote. Considering that the Orthodox are much more likely to live in majority Jewish ED's than the Secular Jews are, they tend to be counted much more than the Secular Jews in the stats for the Jewish areas.
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Old 09-03-2011, 08:36 PM
 
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We will see, however, the well educated (and the Dem base in the district tends to be well educated upper middle class Secular Jews and Asians) tend to be one of the strongest groups in turnout. Now, I don't think the GOP is going to have any issues with the Orthodox turnout, however, I don't think the Dems will have much of a problem turning out the base either. I would say if you are going to compare turnout differences from this race from 08, you will likely see a larger dropoff in Howard Beach than you would in Forest Hills.
I agree but Orthodox jews had one of the worst turnout rates in NY in 08 and 10 for reason which I prefer not to mention.
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Old 09-03-2011, 08:41 PM
 
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They basically are only counting Jews in majority Jewish ED's as the ED vote. Considering that the Orthodox are much more likely to live in majority Jewish ED's than the Secular Jews are, they tend to be counted much more than the Secular Jews in the stats for the Jewish areas.
if that was the case then it would be much higher for McCain.
how many EDs due you think Obama won that were majority Jewish in NY?
then compare them to the ones that are majority jewish where he not only won but was clobbered
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Old 09-03-2011, 08:48 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
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Originally Posted by NY Jew View Post
if that was the case then it would be much higher for McCain.
how many EDs due you think Obama won that were majority Jewish in NY?
then compare them to the ones that are majority jewish where he not only won but was clobbered
Point being Jews who aren't in majority Jewish ED's are not included in the Jewish numbers, and the Jews who aren't in the majority Jewish ED's are overwhelmingly Secular, (which Obama obviously won by a ton). So in those figures you are likely counting the vast majority of the Orthodox voters (since they tend to be clustered together) but aren't counting many of the Secular Jews.
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Old 09-03-2011, 08:53 PM
 
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So in those figures you are likely counting the vast majority of the Orthodox voters (since they tend to be clustered together) but aren't counting many of the Secular Jews.
if you look at the UWS or the LES (or like we already said FH) most of the McCain votes also came from Jews.
in addition when you take out the Orthodox and Russian vote then exit polling becomes much more reliable so just figuring out what the total number of non Orothodox/Russian Jews voted would give you pretty reliable info for that
and I repeat Orthodox plus Russians are now almost half the Jewish electorate in NYC
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Old 09-03-2011, 09:00 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
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Originally Posted by NY Jew View Post
if you look at the UWS or the LES (or like we already said FH) most of the McCain votes also came from Jews.
in addition when you take out the Orthodox and Russian vote then exit polling becomes much more reliable so just figuring out what the total number of non Orothodox/Russian Jews voted would give you pretty reliable info for that
and I repeat Orthodox plus Russians are now almost half the Jewish electorate in NYC
And much like in FH, they tend to be surrounded by ED's that Obama won by a ton in. You will tend to have ED's (especially in Manhattan) that Obama won by well over 80% in, won the Jewish vote of the ED by a similar amount, but aren't counted in the Jewish stats by that estimation because they happen to be 35 or 40% Jewish.
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Old 09-03-2011, 09:51 PM
 
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And much like in FH, they tend to be surrounded by ED's that Obama won by a ton in. You will tend to have ED's (especially in Manhattan) that Obama won by well over 80% in, won the Jewish vote of the ED by a similar amount, but aren't counted in the Jewish stats by that estimation because they happen to be 35 or 40% Jewish.
no they tend to be in the EDs that Obama won by well over 80% in due to the overwhelmingly liberal vote there that is increasingly becoming less and less Jewish and are a large part of the McCain Minority in Manhattan. the best way to find a person in Manhattan who voted for McCain is to go to a Orthodox Synagogue where even the most left wing of them had around 50% voting for McCain
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Old 09-03-2011, 10:11 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
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Originally Posted by NY Jew View Post
no they tend to be in the EDs that Obama won by well over 80% in due to the overwhelmingly liberal vote there that is increasingly becoming less and less Jewish and are a large part of the McCain Minority in Manhattan. the best way to find a person in Manhattan who voted for McCain is to go to a Orthodox Synagogue where even the most left wing of them had around 50% voting for McCain
Again the fact is those stats do not include Jews who don't happen to live in majority Jewish ED's, and those tend to be much more secular liberal Jews than Orthodox.
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