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Old 09-13-2011, 10:45 PM
 
Location: Palm Springs, CA
26,529 posts, read 25,038,026 times
Reputation: 7739

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Quote:
Originally Posted by TXboomerang View Post
Ahhh, excuses, excuses, excuses. 2012 is going to be so brutal for the deranged liberals out there that will have to deal with the reality that most Americans aren't buying what Obama and his mainstream media supporters are selling.
It's one congressional district in unusual circumstances. Don't get too excited. Democrats have won Republican districts over the past year, but I doubt you see those as predictors for 2012.
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Old 09-13-2011, 10:46 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 39,617,572 times
Reputation: 7107
Republican wins Democratic New York House seat - The Washington Post

Quote:
“Make no mistake about it, the albatross around Weprin’s neck is named Obama, and Democrats who value honesty will tell you privately that the president’s 37 percent approval rating in the district is making it difficult for Weprin to win a race that in almost any other time would be a slam dunk,” Stuart Rothenberg, an independent analyst and editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, wrote Tuesday.
As it was in 2010, it will be in 2012, unless a miracle occurs.
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Old 09-13-2011, 10:47 PM
 
5,656 posts, read 5,629,356 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Koch has endorsed other Republicans before that is nothing new. Keep in mind this is a district Obama won by 4 points more than his national margin, so I don't think losing a district 4 points more Dem than the nation on the Presidential level is reason for paic.

Yet this is what you wrote, less than two weeks ago:

No it wont. Much like Obama, Werpin is going to lose the Brooklyn portion of the district, but win Queens (minus Howard Beach). Queens portion outvotes the Brooklyn portion, Werpin wins.

Dems in Danger of Losing WEINER'S Seat???
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Old 09-13-2011, 10:52 PM
 
Location: NC
10,005 posts, read 9,026,330 times
Reputation: 3073
I think you all are making too much of this. I tend to think this is a good article. It points out correctly that this is a rather unique district with issues that are not likely to be of great importance nationwide.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
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Old 09-13-2011, 10:55 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,039 posts, read 15,499,706 times
Reputation: 3957
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sophiasmommy View Post
Yet this is what you wrote, less than two weeks ago:

No it wont. Much like Obama, Werpin is going to lose the Brooklyn portion of the district, but win Queens (minus Howard Beach). Queens portion outvotes the Brooklyn portion, Werpin wins.

Dems in Danger of Losing WEINER'S Seat???
Yes, I did say that and yes I thought Werpin was going to win. That doesn't mean that losing a district that was only 4 points more Democratic than the nation on the Pres level = a big deal. We have seen Special Election losses in districts that were in the double digits favoring one side on the Pres level compared to the nation go the other way. For example NY-26 was 13 points more GOP than the nation on the Pres level, but Dems won it.
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Old 09-13-2011, 10:55 PM
 
6,760 posts, read 10,437,233 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale View Post
It's one congressional district in unusual circumstances. Don't get too excited. Democrats have won Republican districts over the past year, but I doubt you see those as predictors for 2012.
I'm not using this district as a predictor for 2012. There are plenty of other reasons that I am saying liberals should get used to the feeling that comes with a loss because it will be a familiar feeling in 2012.
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Old 09-13-2011, 10:59 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 39,617,572 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Yes, I did say that and yes I thought Werpin was going to win. That doesn't mean that losing a district that was only 4 points more Democratic than the nation on the Pres level = a big deal. We have seen Special Election losses in districts that were in the double digits favoring one side on the Pres level compared to the nation go the other way. For example NY-26 was 13 points more GOP than the nation on the Pres level, but Dems won it.
This is a heavily democratic district - 3-1 registration advantage for the dems. Voted for Gore 67% and obama 57%. The dems have had this seat for over a 100 years. But you go ahead and try and spin away the defeat and what it means.

This was a referendum on obama - Turner made sure of that.
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Old 09-13-2011, 11:01 PM
 
12,439 posts, read 10,316,159 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
This is a heavily democratic district - 3-1 registration advantage for the dems. Voted for Gore 67% and obama 57%. The dems have had this seat for over a 100 years.

This was a referendum on obama - Turner made sure of that.
Well you are partially right, which is refreshing. It was a referendum of Obama's perceived soft stance on unconditional support for Israel. The Jewish guy was just not zionist enough for the orthodox Jews in that district.
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Old 09-13-2011, 11:12 PM
 
Location: southwestern USA
1,815 posts, read 1,761,229 times
Reputation: 2396
Again I have to wonder how the democrats are going to spin this?

It is no secret that quite a sizeable portion of the Dems are upset with Obama---they perceive him to be weak and unable to marshall support -----it has reached the point that those dems are now openly questioning if Obama can win re election.

While this loss in Wieners district may not be fatal, it comes in a district that has been heavily democratic for years and years. We can overanaylze and speculate why the dem candidate lost, but we can truly perceive quite a bit of it had to with the President ----to deny that would be unrealistic.

Once again it should be asked if the democratic party might start searching for a way to make the President reconsider his reelection ambitions-----I would think there is a sizeable faction that at this time would think that they should search for another option----I really think it has gotten to that stage.
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Old 09-13-2011, 11:18 PM
 
12,439 posts, read 10,316,159 times
Reputation: 3137
Quote:
Originally Posted by jefffla01 View Post
Again I have to wonder how the democrats are going to spin this?

It is no secret that quite a sizeable portion of the Dems are upset with Obama---they perceive him to be weak and unable to marshall support -----it has reached the point that those dems are now openly questioning if Obama can win re election.

While this loss in Wieners district may not be fatal, it comes in a district that has been heavily democratic for years and years. We can overanaylze and speculate why the dem candidate lost, but we can truly perceive quite a bit of it had to with the President ----to deny that would be unrealistic.

Once again it should be asked if the democratic party might start searching for a way to make the President reconsider his reelection ambitions-----I would think there is a sizeable faction that at this time would think that they should search for another option----I really think it has gotten to that stage.
It has been explained why that district is different than any other district in the U.S. You just choose to not see it. Fine. Have you ever been there? My guess, probably not, or you just choose to not admit that there is a huge difference.
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