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No, they're not, as I've pointed out. Just insisting they are doesn't make it so. Again, Ron Paul won a batch of straw polls in 2007 and went nowhere.
As for Iowa, let's summarize:
1979 - GHW Bush wins the Iowa Straw Poll
1980 - Reagan wins the GOP nomination
1984 - Reagan is incumbent, straw poll not held
1987 - Robertson wins the Iowa Straw Poll
1988 - GHW Bush wins the GOP nomination
1992 - GHW Bush is incumbent, straw poll not held
1995 - Dole and Gramm tied for Iowa Straw Poll win
1996 - Dole wins the GOP nomination
1999 - GW Bush wins the Iowa Straw Poll
2000 - GW Bush wins the Iowa Straw Poll
2004 - GW Bush is incumbent, straw poll not held
2007 - Romney wins the Iowa Straw Poll
2008 - McCain wins the GOP nomination
2011 - Bachmann wins the Iowa Straw Poll
2012 - Someone not named Bachman will win the GOP nomination
Straw polls are batting two-for-six. How predictive...
Bush led the GOP nomination polls all through 1999.
Dole led the GOP nomination polls all through 1995.
GHW Bush led the GOP nomination polls all through 1987.
Reagan led the GOP nomination polls all through 1979.
But, hey, if you really want to believe Michelle Bachmann will win Iowa just because she win the Iowa Straw Poll, go for it...
As for McCain in 2007, I never doubted he'd be the nominee. The GOP always nominates the "guy who came in second place last time", when there is such a candidate in the race. They did it with Dole, with GHW Bush, with Reagan, then they did it with McCain. And more likely that not, they're going to do it with Romney. All you have to do is look at what the GOP does. There method of picking nominees has strong historical trends.
Romney has better polling numbers than any other single candidate. Romney has the financial backing. Romney has the infrastructure. And, critically, Romney ran an almost-good-enough campaign last time, the same path to the nomination taken by McCain and Dole and GHW Bush and Reagan before him. All signs point to Romney. No signs point to Paul.
Look, Romney's not my dog in this hunt. I just enjoy watching the process play out. But there are reasons it plays out the way it does, and who wins a bunch of straw polls simply does not correlate to who wins the nomination. It hasn't in the past, and it's not going to in 2012.
You're so fixated on the Iowa Caucuses (not primary, caucuses). Guess what? They're bad predictors, too. Reagan lost the Iowa Caucuses in 1980. GHW Bush lost the Iowa Caucuses in 1988. John McCain lost the Iowa Caucuses in 2008. In fact, since the advent of the modern caucus/primary system for selecting nominees in the early 1970s, the GOP has had five open nomination battles (ie, where there was no incumbent President seeking another term). In those campaigns, the eventual nominee has won the Iowa Caucuses two times out of five. 40% of the time. Not very predictive. Almost as bad as the Iowa Straw Poll!
Speaking of the Iowa Straw Poll, in 2007 McCain finished tenth. The nominee finished tenth. I said TENTH. It's hard to get much worse than that. Did anyone finish below him?
But, yeah, woo-hoo, Ron Paul won the Illinois Straw Poll and it's a big media conspiracy to ignore the fantastic predictive power of straw polls...
Yeah okay guy, but why didn't the media ignore and dismiss Herman Cain's win in Florida? That's what his whole "front runner" status is premised on. He won one straw poll a month and a half ago and the media went crazy. That was shoved down our throats for a week. I don't care if the media ignores straw poll wins, they don't mean very much I agree, but lets be fair about it. What matters isn't the straw poll victory but the media attention it can bring, without it Herman Cain's joke candidacy would still just be a joke down in the Jon Huntsman range.
Yeah okay guy, but why didn't the media ignore and dismiss Herman Cain's win in Florida? That's what his whole "front runner" status is premised on. He won one straw poll a month and a half ago and the media went crazy. That was shoved down our throats for a week. I don't care if the media ignores straw poll wins, they don't mean very much I agree, but lets be fair about it. What matters isn't the straw poll victory but the media attention it can bring, without it Herman Cain's joke candidacy would still just be a joke down in the Jon Huntsman range.
I agree. It's not that the straw polls are a significant indication of who is the frontrunner. It's the fact that Herman Cain won one straw poll and it was front page news on Fox is what's alarming. Cain is popular ONLY because Fox put all the spotlights on him after he won and since.
Ah, but the difference between Cain and Paul is when Cain won the Florida straw poll, he immediately shot up to #1 in the polls and became the frontrunner overnight.
Ron Paul has had no such luck, despite running for years and winning all these straw polls left and right. Reason: the GOP rank-and-file simply don't like him.
It has nothing to do with the rank-in-file and everything to do with many of Pauls stands on some policy matters. He has the right idea on financial reform and the role of the federal government, however he is off base with the majority of voters with regards to his stand of legalizing all drugs and his stand on allowing Iran to have nuclear weaponry. Both of these frighten people away from Paul and will continue to. Until such time as he changes his policies on these two issues he will never gain the support of the GOP or the american electorate. Until he changes his mind on these issues the only way he will see the oval office is if he is invited for a visit.
Polls in general aren't that accurate, but straw polls are the most accurate. Great logic, and it also ignores the snapshot effect of time within elections. So let's look at the other option of pollster reports from 4 years ago.
Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, Huckabee, and Paul were all polling better than McCain in IL polls in November 2007. Just how accurate are these polls?
BTW, in 2007. Mitt Romney won this same IL straw poll. I was a part of the ignoramuses that voted for him in the 2007 straw poll and in the 2008 primary. Romney finished 2nd in the state in 2008. Which was far more accurate than the pollsters reports that had Giuliani as the clear leader, Huckabee, Thompson, then Paul, then Romney, THEN McCain. Which was almost the opposite of what happened! What a joke.
you continue to believe what you want and next spring come back and tell us how Paul is doing.
It has nothing to do with the rank-in-file and everything to do with many of Pauls stands on some policy matters. He has the right idea on financial reform and the role of the federal government, however he is off base with the majority of voters with regards to his stand of legalizing all drugs and his stand on allowing Iran to have nuclear weaponry. Both of these frighten people away from Paul and will continue to. Until such time as he changes his policies on these two issues he will never gain the support of the GOP or the american electorate. Until he changes his mind on these issues the only way he will see the oval office is if he is invited for a visit.
You lie about Ron's position on drugs. He doesn't want to legalize them, he just wants to leave it to the states. You see unlike you, Ron Paul understands the Constitution and understands that federal government has no business involving itself in the drug wars.
As for Iran, how is our foreign policy working out for us currently? We are losing our rights, we are spending too much, we are sending money to dictators along with weapons and then later on taking them down. This is absurd. Iran's not a threat to us! They can't even make enough gasoline to sustain themselves and they can hardly feed themselves. We've been fretting about Iran and nuclear weapons for a decade now and it still hasn't happened. They aren't a threat to anyone. We just need to get out of that region and let Israel take care of themselves. Israel's a free and independent nation and even if Iran had the idea to attack Israel, Israel would crush them.
Even if you want to continue believing in the neocon fantasy of a world "safe for democracy," the fact of the matter is we simply can't afford it! We're $16,000,000,000,0000 in debt. We can't sustain this empire indefinitely. Cuts must be made and the empire budget should be the first thing to go. Contrary to Fox News and state propaganda our foreign policy makes us much less safe. We are over in the middle east inciting hatred against ourselves. On top of that the state is taking away our rights all in the name of "national security." It's all a farce. A lie. War is a racket sold to us by the state and their propagandists in the media.
Yeah okay guy, but why didn't the media ignore and dismiss Herman Cain's win in Florida? That's what his whole "front runner" status is premised on. He won one straw poll a month and a half ago and the media went crazy. That was shoved down our throats for a week. I don't care if the media ignores straw poll wins, they don't mean very much I agree, but lets be fair about it. What matters isn't the straw poll victory but the media attention it can bring, without it Herman Cain's joke candidacy would still just be a joke down in the Jon Huntsman range.
Let's see, on one hand you have a guy who has run for President twice before and who has been in Congress off and on since the 1970s. He's not exactly new news. And he one a slew of straw polls in 2007, which led precisely nowhere. Now he wins one in Illinois, a state which the GOP has no chance to carry in 2012.
On the other hand, you have a guy who has never held elective office, winning a straw poll in a much larger state, with a lot more electoral college votes, that is actually a swing state and very much in play.
I just can't imagine why the latter is a bigger story...
Wait, I've got it! It's a massive media conspiracy to shut out Ron Paul! Because the media conglomerates don't actually want to make money, they want to lose money... as long as Ron Paul suffers... or something...
you continue to believe what you want and next spring come back and tell us how Paul is doing.
Nita
I can tell you what will happen next spring. The exact same thing as what we have right now. Only thing that will change if Ron Paul isn't elected and a rino is, our money will go to ineffective republican causes instead of ineffective democratic causes. It's time for Americans to reap the benefits of our harvest instead of bailing out the ones who caused the mess. Instead of sending our money overseas how about we keep it here.
Big government doesn't work. Our costly, expanding military makes us less safe. Business as usual isn't working The ones without partisan agendas can see that.
Let's see, on one hand you have a guy who has run for President twice before and who has been in Congress off and on since the 1970s. He's not exactly new news. And he one a slew of straw polls in 2007, which led precisely nowhere. Now he wins one in Illinois, a state which the GOP has no chance to carry in 2012.
On the other hand, you have a guy who has never held elective office, winning a straw poll in a much larger state, with a lot more electoral college votes, that is actually a swing state and very much in play.
I just can't imagine why the latter is a bigger story...
Wait, I've got it! It's a massive media conspiracy to shut out Ron Paul! Because the media conglomerates don't actually want to make money, they want to lose money... as long as Ron Paul suffers... or something...
Wait, which is it!? Are straw polls irrelevant? Or are they only irrelevant when Ron Paul wins them? No matter what you'll find some justification for your bull****. By the way, Herman Cain ran for President before, so by your standards he's old news. Also, Ron Paul didn't just win Illinois, he's one a slew of straw polls including California which you know is a pretty big state and all.
I reiterate... Until such time as Ron Paul changes his stance on these two policies, he will never sit in the oval office.....
That remains to be seen, but in the case you're right I guess we get the government we deserve.
When I see idiots like Herman Cain and Mitt Romney atop the polls this quote comes to mind-
“The Fathers who invented it [democracy], if they could return from Hell, would never recognize it. It was conceived as a free government of free men; it has become simply a battle of charlatans for the votes of idiots.”
-H.L. Mencken
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