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A week of turmoil in the race for the Republican presidential nomination has damaged Herman Cain and devastated Texas Gov. Rick Perry, all apparently to the benefit of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, according to new polling numbers from the Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey. (The full results are here.)
The Journal/NBC News polling team late last week went back to re-interview Republican primary voters who had taken the Journal/NBC poll earlier this month. The results of 102 interviews, while not scientifically conclusive, are instructive.
Among those recontacted, 32% now say they favor Mr. Romney for president, up from 27% when they were surveyed between Nov. 2 and Nov. 5. During that earlier canvas, those 102 Republican voters favored former pizza executive Mr. Cain over Mr. Romney in a head-to-head race 51% to 47%. That same group now favors Mr. Romney 56%-43%.
I'm not saying the results are wrong (and probably think they are in the range), but keep in mind you only have 102 people in the sample, and the pollster themselves admit the sample size isn't large enough to be Scientifically significant (you generally need 400-500 or more)
im so tired of these damn polls now. wake me up after the iowa primaries.
i still dont think any of them will beat obama anyways.
yeah, so am I. Candidate A is up one month, down the next, and Candidate B takes his place. Rinse and repeat. This is getting tiresome and repetitive now, just like the polls where Obama drops 1% support and now it means he's going to lose, just like Obama gets 1% support and now he's going to landslide the Republicans I know we're all bored here, but let's wait until the primaries actually start for once?
A week of turmoil in the race for the Republican presidential nomination has damaged Herman Cain and devastated Texas Gov. Rick Perry, all apparently to the benefit of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, according to new polling numbers from the Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey.
Well, given the implosion of the Tea Party candidates, this is not really unexpected. Romney has demonstrated that he's the only viable candidate on the stage that can walk and chew gum at the same time. (Apologies to the Paul supporters, but I just don't see him still standing at the end of this.) The other candidates have set an incredibly low bar, which is a good thing for Romney.
It will be interesting to see if the Tea Partiers will come out for him. Many of them on the right wing blogs I read claim they will not repeat their "mistake" of voting for a RINO again, as they did in 2008, and unfortunately for him, that's how they view Romney. But the Tea Party's influence is on the wane, so it's not clear how much this would hurt Romney in a general election. Could he win without the support of the far right? It's going to be interesting to watch this unfold.
You have to ask yourself WHY NBC is putting out a headline like that, from a clearly weak/defective poll. To create a narrative, right? To convince voters that Perry is done, right?
Going back and cherry-picking less than half of a substandard polling sample in order to draw national conclusions about the direction of a presidential race — and presenting the results as a poll rather than an anecdotally-sourced story — amounts to polling malpractice.
They are interested in the "headline", hoping it will create the narrative they want.
Quote:
Well, given the implosion of the Tea Party candidates
Would these be the same TP candidates that won in 2010?
How about the same TP candidates that just locked up the whole state of VA?
Would these be the same TP candidates that won in 2010?
Yep, one and the same. They were at the peak of their popularity in 2010, but they have been steadily losing support ever since.
"Twenty-four percent of Americans said in January of last year they had never heard of [the Tea Party]. Only 5 percent say that now. As that number has fallen, tea party disfavor has risen.
To put that more simply: The more Americans learn about this movement, the more they dislike it."
Keep touting that VA win. It's likely all you're going to have.
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I know we're all bored here, but let's wait until the primaries actually start for once?
