U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 12-30-2011, 09:46 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,645,178 times
Reputation: 1422

Advertisements

News Service of Florida (Note that the poll is two weeks old): [SIZE=2]As Florida voters begin to focus on the state's pivotal GOP presidential primary at the end of January, the leading contenders are former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, according to a poll by TelOpinion Research.[/SIZE]
Romney and Gingrich are essentially in a statistical dead heat, with Romney leading with 27 percent of the vote to Gingrich's 26, according to the telephone survey of 780 Republican voters, conducted from Dec. 15-19.
Bill Lee, a Republican pollster who co-founded TelOpinion, said that matches the national pattern, with Romney and Gingrich drawing most of the media attention.


Fla poll: Romney 27%, Gingrich 26%, Paul 5, Bachmann 4, Perry 4 | Florida politics blog: The Buzz | Tampa Bay Times
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 12-30-2011, 09:50 PM
 
Location: Chicago Area
7,572 posts, read 3,883,964 times
Reputation: 2674
There is certainly enough time for Gingrich sink like a rock in Florida. The question is, who moves up to replace him?

The article did point out that the poll was two weeks ago.

I think the unpredictability of this race for the GOP nomination has made it a lot of fun to watch no matter who wins out in the end.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2011, 09:59 PM
 
2,031 posts, read 2,299,446 times
Reputation: 1375
No surprise. The Gingrich boom has faded. That 11-day old 1% margin is probably approaching double-digits again for Romney.

Interestingly, Florida ignored the Republican rule for this cycle that all primaries and caucuses before March 6 had to award delegates proportionally. Florida is awarding them in a winner-take-all basis. Their number of delegates was cut in half as a penalty for the primary being scheduled before March 6 (in violation of Republican rules), however.

Florida is where Romney will get back on track after (probably) losing South Carolina. Then, he's on to the February schedule, which is so favorable to Romney it looks like it was enacted with handing him the nomination in mind!

Paul will soldier on, but this nomination will be over in under two months.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2011, 10:08 PM
 
7,374 posts, read 7,207,476 times
Reputation: 892
Interesting ... one of my buddies is a military industrial contractor in Florida and he tells me that the only person that he hears anyone talking about is Dr. Paul ... He lives an hour outside of Miami.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2011, 10:12 PM
 
Location: Chicago Area
7,572 posts, read 3,883,964 times
Reputation: 2674
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida Republican Presidential Primary

It's hard to say what will happen in Florida. Latest and greatest polling that I can find was from 12/15 to 12/19 by TelOpinion and I don't know how accurate and scientific their polling is. The next most recent was on 12/4. Look back to 12/4 and Herman Cain had 12% of the vote in Iowa. Much has changed since 12/4.

Safe to say that Florida was clearly a two horse race a month ago. Very hard to say where things are at now. It's probably solidly for Romney, but impossible to say for certain.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2011, 10:38 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,645,178 times
Reputation: 1422
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010 View Post
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida Republican Presidential Primary

It's hard to say what will happen in Florida. Latest and greatest polling that I can find was from 12/15 to 12/19 by TelOpinion and I don't know how accurate and scientific their polling is. The next most recent was on 12/4. Look back to 12/4 and Herman Cain had 12% of the vote in Iowa. Much has changed since 12/4.

Safe to say that Florida was clearly a two horse race a month ago. Very hard to say where things are at now. It's probably solidly for Romney, but impossible to say for certain.


The TelOpinion poll is the one referenced in the article in this post. It is the only recent poll out. Hopefully, they will start doing weekly polls in Fla and South Carolina after Iowa is over.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-31-2011, 11:38 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
69,443 posts, read 79,656,989 times
Reputation: 38747
Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
News Service of Florida (Note that the poll is two weeks old): [SIZE=2]As Florida voters begin to focus on the state's pivotal GOP presidential primary at the end of January, the leading contenders are former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, according to a poll by TelOpinion Research.[/SIZE]
Romney and Gingrich are essentially in a statistical dead heat, with Romney leading with 27 percent of the vote to Gingrich's 26, according to the telephone survey of 780 Republican voters, conducted from Dec. 15-19.
Bill Lee, a Republican pollster who co-founded TelOpinion, said that matches the national pattern, with Romney and Gingrich drawing most of the media attention.


Fla poll: Romney 27%, Gingrich 26%, Paul 5, Bachmann 4, Perry 4 | Florida politics blog: The Buzz | Tampa Bay Times
this has little to do with anything. These polls, as we have seen with Iowa are changing daily or maybe I should say hourly....
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-31-2011, 12:42 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,645,178 times
Reputation: 1422
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
this has little to do with anything. These polls, as we have seen with Iowa are changing daily or maybe I should say hourly....


Polls are one indicator of how the voters in a given state are trending at the time. This poll is interesting because Gingrich did have a significant lead in FLA last month. That lead has dwindled somewhat. We all know polls change, but how they are changing is of interest.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-31-2011, 02:32 PM
 
2,191 posts, read 4,094,820 times
Reputation: 2256
Polls are absolutely stupid. Almost none of them take into account the democrats and independents who are going to hop over and vote for Ron Paul and therefore reading into any of them is a complete waste of time. They are also constantly changing every couple of days based on whatever the fickle republican potential voter had for breakfast, how cold it is outside during the voting time, and who is running the most advertisements on tv/radio during that week.

Furthermore, the only polls being posted in any of the mainstream media are one's showing that Romney or Gingrich is most certainly going to win the primary and that you can't vote for Ron Paul because he is unelectable. If people honestly believe that they are either stupid or not capable of doing any independent research.

Lastly, whoever wins Iowa will most likely have a HUGE impact on New Hampshire and every state that happens after that. So it's even more inconsequential to be focused on the third, fourth, or fifth states down the line when we don't even know who will win the first. Add to that fact that this specific poll is over two weeks old and you may as well be trying to guess random people's favorite colors in a grocery store.

This poll is a colossal, complete, and utter waste of time for everyone involved.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-31-2011, 02:58 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
69,443 posts, read 79,656,989 times
Reputation: 38747
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason28 View Post
Polls are absolutely stupid. Almost none of them take into account the democrats and independents who are going to hop over and vote for Ron Paul and therefore reading into any of them is a complete waste of time. They are also constantly changing every couple of days based on whatever the fickle republican potential voter had for breakfast, how cold it is outside during the voting time, and who is running the most advertisements on tv/radio during that week.

Furthermore, the only polls being posted in any of the mainstream media are one's showing that Romney or Gingrich is most certainly going to win the primary and that you can't vote for Ron Paul because he is unelectable. If people honestly believe that they are either stupid or not capable of doing any independent research.

Lastly, whoever wins Iowa will most likely have a HUGE impact on New Hampshire and every state that happens after that. So it's even more inconsequential to be focused on the third, fourth, or fifth states down the line when we don't even know who will win the first. Add to that fact that this specific poll is over two weeks old and you may as well be trying to guess random people's favorite colors in a grocery store.

This poll is a colossal, complete, and utter waste of time for everyone involved.
Right and wrong: polls, period, especially this year seem to mean very little as they are changing so fast. But, as for nowhere has any of these polls indicated people should not vote for Paul or he can not win. Yes, there are many who have said and for good reason he will not get the nomination, but the polls do not tell people who to vote for or who not to vote for.

As for anyone being stupid, isn't your statement pretty one sided? Do you see others calling you stupid because you are a Paul supporter?

Nita
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top