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Old 12-30-2011, 09:24 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,044 posts, read 15,505,597 times
Reputation: 3959

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Polling in Iowa generally shows Romney with a lead, albeit a narrow one, with Paul generally closest but bounces around a bit. You add in the caucus factor as opposed to a typical Primary it makes how tight things are a bit more meaningful.

Putting a side your preferences, or if you even have a dog in this fight (I'm a liberal Democrat supporting Obama) if your a bit of a political geek this is a bit interesting (if your not a political gee, then what the hell are you doing on this board )


Marist, Romney up 23-21 over Paul, followed by Santorum 15%, Perry 14%, Gingrich 13%, Bachmann 6%

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Se...0nbcmarist.pdf

We ask America has Romney with a larger lead having him at 24%, but Santorum in 2nd at 17%, Paul 3rd 14%, Gingrich 13%, Bachmann 12%, Perry 10% with Huntsman at 4%

Consensus: Romney | weaskamerica.com

Next, and quite hilariously is Inside America with six candidates with six points, Paul, Romney and Gingrich all tied at 17%, Santorum 13%, Bachmann 12%, Perry 11%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/doc..._Iowa_1229.pdf

Rasmussen has Romney up slightly over Paul 23-22 with Santorum 3rd with 16% followed by Perry and Gingrich both at 13%, Bachmann at 5%

2012 Iowa Republican Caucus - Rasmussen Reports™

ARG has Romney up 22-17 over Gingrich, with Paul at 16%, Santorum at 11%, Perry at 9%, Bachmann 8% & Hunstman 6%

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Preference

CNN/Time has Romney with a slight edge over Paul 25-22, with Santorum at 16, Gingrich 14, Perry 11 and Bachmann 9%

CNN Poll: Romney on top, Gingrich fading & Santorum rising in Iowa – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

Now we also have PPP which shows Paul up slightly 24-21 over Romney, Gingrich 13%, Bachmann 11% and Santorum and Perry tied at 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...IA_1227925.pdf
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Old 12-30-2011, 09:34 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,869,278 times
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Polls are never to be trusted and definitely not in Iowa. It is full of surprises. Anything can happen there.
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Old 12-30-2011, 09:48 PM
 
2,031 posts, read 2,413,714 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
Polls are never to be trusted and definitely not in Iowa. It is full of surprises. Anything can happen there.
Yeah, it's not like the 2008 polls showed Huckabee winning Iowa!

Oh, wait ... yeah, they did ...
RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Iowa Republican Caucus
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Old 12-31-2011, 03:11 AM
 
Location: Chicago Area
8,043 posts, read 4,209,807 times
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Well, the standard margin of error in any scientific poll is 5%. The recent polling in Iowa:



(Not sure why it gets tagged 2008 by the way. Obviously, Santorum, Bachmann, Huntsman and Perry weren't running then. Goofy website.)

That is very close and there is no sure way to say whether Paul or Romney wins. And at rate at which Santorum is climbing, this might be a three horse race after all.
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Old 12-31-2011, 06:37 AM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
22,241 posts, read 15,328,413 times
Reputation: 4583
Interesting? I assume you mean the Sugar Bowl.
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