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I think CO and NV are two states that could go either way. FWIW, those two states have large Mormon populations (as does AZ).
In NC, I actually think Obama has a good chance there if only because of the evangelicals voting against Romney. I think NC is the ONE state where this might hurt Romney significantly, simply because it's a southern state where the percentage of voters who are evangelicals is relatively large and because it's not a solidly Republican state. It's really the only state where I think Romney could lose because of the evangelicals.
I think Romney is more likely to win Virginia than NC, actually.
Romney also has somewhat of a chance of winning Michigan.
It obviously comes down to Florida and Ohio primarily, though Romney would need some other swing states as well (but so would Obama).
CO and NV have some Mormons, but outside of Utah and Idaho no mormon population can be considered particularly significant. I think Colorado is 2% Mormon and NV is about 11% Mormon
Now compare that with Hispanics who make up 21% of Colorado and 20% of Nevada. Romney is less popular then McCain among hispanics by a lot. That coupled with the fact that Obama consistently polls well in Colorado and does almost as well in Nevada makes me think these are good bets.
I also agree NC is more likely then VA for Obama though I disagree about Michigan. The last poll had Romney down by 8 there and while Florida and Ohio will remain must win for Republicans so in that sense they are what it comes down to, I think Obama could win without either if he has a strong performance in NC and the west.
I've played around with the map on 270towin.com myself (that's the site you used, right?). It's definitely fun to come up with different possible outcomes - isn't it?
It's a great site. I used it with my students this semester and it gave them a great, fun visual of the electoral college to play with.
My point (and randomstudent's point) is that they might not turn out in large enough numbers to vote for Romney. Of course they won't vote for Obama.
What many people seem to forget though, is that Obama supporters are not going to be as energized as they were in 2008 and will not turn out in such large numbers. Therefore, I think any suggestion that Obama will win by a larger margin than in 2008 is laughable. I think the election will be very close. I hope Romney wins, but I am very concerned that he won't. I absolutely think he has a chance though.
I definitely don't think evangelicals will switch to Obama, and I do think their turnout will be depressed. I also think that Obama will not have the energy he had in 2008. With that said population growth is on Obama's side and I think that coupled with an even bigger win margin among Hispanics voters, which seems likely atm, could lead to a larger margin though I do not expect it. I think a few states will switch around, but it will basically be the same maybe slightly more Republican.
Last edited by Randomstudent; 01-28-2012 at 04:47 PM..
I agree about Kentucky, Georgia, and Arizona though I think the odds of Obama winning AZ are much higher then in the other two. With that said I think Obama will get North Carolina again along with Colorado, Nevada, and Pennsylvania and that should be more then enough to do Romney in.
Agree. People forget California was a Republican-leaning state before 1994, when the state decided to get tough on immigration. It is now the most reliable Democratic state there is. Its not unthinkable that Arizona is next followed by Texas sometime in the next decade.
Agree. People forget California was a Republican-leaning state before 1994, when the state decided to get tough on immigration. It is now the most reliable Democratic state there is. Its not unthinkable that Arizona is next followed by Texas sometime in the next decade.
Oh I definitely think Texas, Arizona and even North Carolina and Virginia are getting that way.
The last few polls by Rasmussen, WSJ and PPP show Obama pulling ahead of Romney. Rasmussen is particularly interesting because of that poll's strong Republican bias.
I hope that you do realize that the odds are that both Romney and Obama will go back and forth multiple times each taking leads.
Who knows, Romney may not even be the nominee. He is polling behind Gingrich nationally, so anything is possible. I just think it is interesting to look at this snapshot in time.
CO and NV have some Mormons, but outside of Utah and Idaho no mormon population can be considered particularly significant. I think Colorado is 2% Mormon and NV is about 11% Mormon
This got me curious cuz I'm kind of a geek with numbers.
Here are the states that I found had significant Mormon population. Utah 68%
Idaho 27%
American Samoa 22.50%
Wyoming 11.50%
Nevada 6.70%
Arizona 5.80%
Hawaii 5.30%
Montana 4.70%
Alaska 4.40%
Washington 3.90%
Oregon 3.80%
New Mexico 3.30%
Colorado 2.80%
California 2.10%
Those stats are not as current as I'd like them to be. They are for 2009. But I did find it interesting nonetheless. As a religion, the Mormon Church has tended to grow very rapidly, so who knows where things are at now? Source is the LDS Church Almanac. LDS Church News - Almanac
The rest of the 50 states and other territories not listed are under 2% for the most part, though it's probably worth noting that most of the states I didn't list are around 1% -- not huge but more than people tend to think are living in their respective states.
The Mormon vote is not a make or break amount in most cases, but it's enough to win or lose in a close election.
The important thing to realize is that Mormons are not 100% Republicans. Just ask Harry Reid. It's more like 65% Republican and it mostly comes down to the Democratic Party's stance on abortion and other similar issues. Mormons used to be about 80% Democrat back 75 years ago. Moral issues drew most of them into the GOP a long time ago.
Considering the bigoted component of the Christian right and their outright hatred of Mormons, the Democrats have a decent chance at winning them back, but abortion alone would be the biggest dealbreaker.
That is about what I had though I had Nevada being a bit higher. With that said I still think outside of Idaho and Utah its not all that significant. In fact if you take your number for Nevada (Probably more accurate since I got mine from the Pew forum) I believe Nevada has a larger Black population (8%) then it does Mormon. (http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/), but I don't really think that is terribly significant.
With that said I don't think Christian conservatives will flock back to Democrats at all, though I do think many of them will either take a pass on voting, or just vote and not do any campaign work.
romney doesnt energize the base. thats his biggest problem and where he will struggle nationwide.
people will vote against obama, not for romney. you cant win an election with a base like that.
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