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Old 02-10-2012, 09:22 AM
 
5,161 posts, read 5,027,286 times
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Default Which GOP candidate drops out next and why and.....

No offense to Ron Paul but my question does not include him.

At each televised debate all the candidates were united in their emphatic intent that OBama must not be re-elected.

Since they are all determined to see that happen then:

1. If Gingrich drops out next, and he violently wants Obama to lose, will he endorse Romney or Santorum, and why?

2. If Santorum drops out next, and he violently wants Obama to lose, will he endorse Romney or Gingrich, and why?
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Old 02-10-2012, 09:26 AM
 
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I think there is likely extreme pressure on Gingrich to quit the race so that the GOP can see where his base of support will go. Newt doesn't want to give up on his ambitious, though, until after Super Tuesday. I think Newt would need a clean and impressive sweep on Super Tuesday to stay in the race. If Santorum takes Ohio and does competitively well in the Southern states, then he becomes the undisputed conservative left. Remember that the GOP is going to carry Dixie anyway, so they're not going to care if Newt wins those states. It's how decisively he wins, but more importantly, how well he can contend in Ohio. The GOP wants to do well in the Midwest and Great Plains states - that's where they lost the election in 2008. That's Santorum territory right now.
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Old 02-10-2012, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Virginia Beach
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Frothytorum's not going anywhere anytime soon. His head's too big from his recent wins.

Gingrich is probably going to stick this one out because he's the Devil and will make us all suffer his hideous likeness.

And he's a stubborn idiot. That too.

So, we're probably going to see this freakshow as a fight to the bitter end.
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Old 02-10-2012, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Norwalk, CT
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I would say Paul will be the next to drop out. However, since you specifically wanted to exclude him from this thread, I will say Santorum. There is simply no way Santorum is going to win primaries/caucuses in the mainstream states such as California, Texas, New York, Illinois, Virginia, nor any New England state. He won't win Arizona either. You know it, I know it. He is not electable. He is too far to the right and too much of a social conservative.
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Old 02-10-2012, 09:41 AM
 
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I'm wondering if Romney could survive:

A. A Santorum endorsement of Gingrich, if and when Rick drops out. (If it becomes a Romney-Gingrich race)
B. A Gingrich endorsement of Santorum, if and when Newt drops out. (If it becomes a Romney-Santorum race)


In recent debates Santorum really attacked Gingrich and his congressional issues. I got the feeling he'd never endorse Newt.
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Old 02-10-2012, 09:46 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
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No offense taken, because Ron Paul is not going to drop out. The only question is whether he will be relevant at the convention.

Mitt Romney's best and worst quality is his ability to, what some call, flip-flop, or be flexible. He is like a central interlocking component that can match with almost anything.

My perception is that neither Ron Paul nor Rick Santorum are actually running for president, they are running to either influence government policy and/or to be on the ticket in some capacity (Secretary of Treasury or Fed Chairman for Mr Paul, most likely VP or possibly Secretary of War for Oil for Mr Santorum).

Flip-flopping, flexible Mr Romney could probably interlock with either one of them, depending on which way the wind blows.

Mr Gingrich, on the other hand, is probably actually running for president, and he appears too ornery to interlock with anyone for too long.

The best-case scenario for Ron Paul would be for both Mr Santorum and Mr Gingrich to remain in the race for as long as possible while he gains as many delegates as possible, finishing second or a strong third in as many states as possible and, who knows, maybe even first in a state or two.

The best-case scenario for Mr Santorum would be to knock out Mr Gingrich as soon as possible, and vice versa for Mr Gingrich, with Ron Paul finishing a distant last in as many states as possible.

As mentioned, unless Mr Gingrich does really well on Super Tuesday, most likely he will be the next one to drop out. Don't rule out that Mr Gingrich endorse Mr Romney at some point.

Good Luck!

Last edited by bale002; 02-10-2012 at 09:54 AM..
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Old 02-10-2012, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Virginia Beach
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
No offense taken, because Ron Paul is not going to drop out. The only question is whether he will be relevant at the convention.
Yeah. Anyone who says Ron Paul is going to drop out doesn't know Ron Paul. He'll lose the GOP nom, and then run independent. Again.

Although the idea of Frothy in a position of power....

*shudder*
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Old 02-10-2012, 09:56 AM
 
10,653 posts, read 6,053,241 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by howard555 View Post
No offense to Ron Paul but my question does not include him.

At each televised debate all the candidates were united in their emphatic intent that OBama must not be re-elected.

Since they are all determined to see that happen then:

1. If Gingrich drops out next, and he violently wants Obama to lose, will he endorse Romney or Santorum, and why?
Santorum, Newt has been bashing the crap out of Romney for months, there is no way he would endorse Romney.

Quote:
Originally Posted by howard555 View Post
2. If Santorum drops out next, and he violently wants Obama to lose, will he endorse Romney or Gingrich, and why?
Romney, Santorum will also try and brownnose Romney for a possible VP spot.
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Old 02-10-2012, 10:45 AM
 
1,352 posts, read 1,282,611 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321 View Post
I would say Paul will be the next to drop out. However, since you specifically wanted to exclude him from this thread, I will say Santorum. There is simply no way Santorum is going to win primaries/caucuses in the mainstream states such as California, Texas, New York, Illinois, Virginia, nor any New England state. He won't win Arizona either. You know it, I know it. He is not electable. He is too far to the right and too much of a social conservative.
If Santorum becomes the Republican candidate, Obama will beat him at least 60-40 in the general election. That guy is a nutcase. His social conservatism and religious extremism will gain him little votes in California.

Ron Paul is the only Republican candidate that can inspire action and actually take away independent votes from Obama. Romney, however, is the probably the only mainstream Republican candidate with a reasonable chance against Obama, though the tide is still tilted against him.
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Old 02-10-2012, 11:14 AM
 
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I think the GOP is setting itself up to be destroyed with anyone of these main candidates remaining. If Paul somehow wins the nomination (which he won't) he'll make Obama seem sane. If Gingrich wins the nomination he'll make Obama look like the Pope. If Santorum wins, he'll make Obama look rational and mainstream. And if Romney wins, he'll make Obama look like the guy who represents their interests. There's really no chance for the Republicans except for another complete economic meltdown that makes voters so desperate that they are left with no alternative.
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