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Old 02-18-2012, 10:24 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,772 posts, read 104,081,702 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WheelintheSky View Post
It wouldn't come to that. Ron Paul will get the delegates needed to earn the nomination.
you live in a bigger dream world than some of the libs, or maybe you are a lib. Paul will not get the nomination. He hasn't won a state yet and is trailing in pledged delegates, so how do you figure he is going to get the nomination?
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Old 02-18-2012, 01:19 PM
 
8,754 posts, read 10,112,087 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by box_of_zip_disks View Post
You're technically correct only in the absolutely narrowest sense. While the formal rules on outside candidates haven't been completely amended, since the debacle in 68 the primary process itself has been reorganized to make not only a brokered convention essentially an impossibility, but the probability of a surprise candidate is effectively zero. If Romney hasn't gotten his 1144 delegates by the end of the primaries, the first thing on the RNC convention agenda is adopting a rule to preclude any spoiler candidate coming in.


As the rules are, someone totally new could enter the race and I am not sure that will be changed. It would be a disaster and have longterm damaging effects for the party for years to come, but this whole thing has been damaging. I don't think it wil happen either, but it is possible.
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Old 02-18-2012, 01:21 PM
 
8,754 posts, read 10,112,087 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BentBow View Post
Romney does not have the support.
Obama Lite, is still 180º from the direction this nation must turn.
The same direction at a different speed and different beneficiaries, is still the wrong direction.


Ron Paul has the organization, to take the convention by storm, this time around. Disciplined, like a well trained army.


Do you realize who goes to the convention as delegates? More of them are GOP establishment types than Ron Paul leaning types. There is a reason for that.
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Old 02-18-2012, 07:11 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
29,167 posts, read 22,137,026 times
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I think Romney will be the nominee.

In a brokered convention, it's most likely that the guy with the most delegates will win on the 2nd vote.

I doubt very seriously that any good potential newcomers will be willing to offer themselves up as the sacrificial goat for this election. Daniels, Jeb Bush, Jindahl, and all other potentials for 2016 are going to wait this one out. The only exception is Palin, who is plenty willing to go down in flames- it's all just more attention and another book for her.

I hope Sarah gets the nod. I would sincerely dig a total 50-state Obama landslide.
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Old 02-18-2012, 07:24 PM
 
8,754 posts, read 10,112,087 times
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I agree that Palin is the only one dumb enough or blindly ambitious enough to step into something like this. It would be like playing political Russian roulette.
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Old 02-19-2012, 09:10 AM
 
Location: Georgia
840 posts, read 777,966 times
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What about Rand Paul? Ron is going to have a huge say so in the convention and if they won't nominate him he could bring his son into it and get him nominated? Ron is done after the election with politics he is retiring pretty much so why not give his son a boost? I would vote for Rand and I think he brings in the independents like me and so many others and he brings libertarians and moderates...something to think about...
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Old 02-19-2012, 09:33 AM
 
10,092 posts, read 8,165,040 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by box_of_zip_disks View Post
A brokered convention doesn't mean everyone throws their hands up and they just pick whoever; no outside candidates who aren't already running and have delegates at the convention can be picked. It means the first round of votes didn't generate a consensus candidate so subsequent rounds must be taken, from the available list of candidates. Unbound delegates can vote for whoever bribes them and pledged delegates can be released to vote for whoever bribes them.

Romney would win a brokered convention because he'd have the resources to goad enough delegates to give him the majority in extra rounds of voting.
Not true. After the first round of votes no delegate is tied to a candidate--they COULD bring in someone completely new. I'm not saying that it's likely, but it could theoretically happen if there's enough division between the different candidate camps that they can't get to 50% without someone new who could unite the factions.
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Old 02-19-2012, 09:35 AM
 
10,092 posts, read 8,165,040 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
Actually, that is not technically accurate. If no one has 51% on the first vote and the convention is 'brokered', someone could be drafted that was not already in the race. However, that would more than likely cause the biggest party split in history...especially if one candidate was fairly close. However, after the first vote, some of the delegates can be released and therefore can change their votes. If there is still not a winner, on the third vote they are all released.

There are huge gambles with entering someone at the convention that has not been in the race. First of all, they have not been vetted. They haven't been through any of the debates, no media scrutiny, none of the Hell the normal candidate goes through. Imagine if Rick Perry had not been in the race and he was drafted at the convention and then went head to head with Obama in a couple of debates...it would be disasterous. Of course, there are candidates like Sarah Palin who were vetted in 08 they could risk it on.

More than likely, what I think will happen if this 'brokered convention' gets close to happening or what I think some have plans of is this: If Mitt Romney loses Arizona and Michigan, somebody will enter the race right after that. I think there are about 11 states you can still get on the ballot in. Their objective will be to unite the right wing, evangelical, conservative vote enough to win enough states/delegates to block Mitt Romney from getting enough votes on the first round of the convention...brokered convention. That person might be Sarah Palin or it seems that is who they have in mind. They will try to enter her late enough that she doesn't debate or get chewed up too much by the media, but she is in early enough to secure enough delegates to do damage.

What might not be taken into account, is that Mitt Romney and his team, already knew this might happen and they could have a backup plan in place that will block them from achieving their goal. If it plays out, it will be interesting.

If Mitt wins Arizona and Michigan, it probably won't happen at all.
That happens with VP picks for the general though--Palin is a great example. She wasn't vetted properly until the general, and she dragged down McCain.
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Old 02-19-2012, 09:38 AM
 
10,092 posts, read 8,165,040 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
Do you realize who goes to the convention as delegates? More of them are GOP establishment types than Ron Paul leaning types. There is a reason for that.
This. Plus the super delegates, who aren't tied to a candidate at all and are either elected officials or party insiders, make up between 600 - 700 (can remember number) of the votes. It's a huge portion, and it makes it very difficult for an outsider candidate to win unless they have the support of the party establishment. For you paul supporters--remember--this is a PARTY nomination, not an election open to the general public.
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Old 02-19-2012, 09:42 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,772 posts, read 104,081,702 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mb1547 View Post
Not true. After the first round of votes no delegate is tied to a candidate--they COULD bring in someone completely new. I'm not saying that it's likely, but it could theoretically happen if there's enough division between the different candidate camps that they can't get to 50% without someone new who could unite the factions.
obviously you understand a brokers convention better than some. Like you, I don't think this is going to happen, but if things continue the way they are it is a possibility..

Anyone who thinks there are not a few out there that would step in doesn't know a lot about politics. There are those who did not want to run, did not think the time was right or whatever but would not hesitate to be considered if they were talked into it.
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