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Old 02-23-2012, 07:59 AM
 
2,943 posts, read 2,997,511 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Santorum did poorly enough last night that the press is all over him as the loser this morning. He will drop enough to lose MI now and then the floodgates will open. Romney is the nominee without a shred of doubt now.
Santorum will win Michigan the same reason why Gingrich won SC.

Both candidates have no chance when up against Obama. The Democrats will vote for both in the open primary states.

 
Old 02-23-2012, 08:02 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,724 posts, read 83,345,493 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321 View Post
Are you sure about this? I thought the candidate needs at least half of all delegates (1,144) in order to avoid a brokered convention.
tech I think you are right, but the talk about a brokered convention is geared to include an outside candidate. A contested convention is what is more likely. That is when you will see delegates start flip flopping. It has been so long since we have seen either, it is hard to tell one from the other.

Nita
 
Old 02-23-2012, 08:02 AM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
29,296 posts, read 39,643,592 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cw30000 View Post
Santorum will win Michigan the same reason why Gingrich won SC.

Both candidates have no chance when up against Obama. The Democrats will vote for both in the open primary states.
That may be the difference but I think so many Republicans will jump over to Romney after the debacle in Mesa last night that it won't be enough.

If Santorum does manage to pull out a victory in Michigan in spite of his performance, then all bets are off. We could easily be looking at a dog fight at the convention.
 
Old 02-23-2012, 08:13 AM
 
2,943 posts, read 2,997,511 times
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The only reason he can win is either voter fraud or the hardcore democrats come out to vote for him.

He got destroyed in last night's debate.
 
Old 02-23-2012, 08:34 AM
 
Location: Texas
35,109 posts, read 19,203,402 times
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Lightbulb My prediction on how the GOP primary will play out

Romney will win both MI and AZ next week, and Santorum's shine will fade. Gingrich will become news again on Super Tuesday when he does well in the southeast. Paul will continue to slog along, making no remarkable progress.

In the end, money and the GOP establishment will ensure that Romney is their man.

And that's too bad. Because Romney is so boring. It'll be a replay of the 1996 election, when everybody knew that Dole had no chance.

Any of the other three options would make for at least an entertaining campaign.
 
Old 02-23-2012, 10:13 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,724 posts, read 83,345,493 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Gringo View Post
Romney will win both MI and AZ next week, and Santorum's shine will fade. Gingrich will become news again on Super Tuesday when he does well in the southeast. Paul will continue to slog along, making no remarkable progress.

In the end, money and the GOP establishment will ensure that Romney is their man.

And that's too bad. Because Romney is so boring. It'll be a replay of the 1996 election, when everybody knew that Dole had no chance.

Any of the other three options would make for at least an entertaining campaign.
Most likely Romney will get the nod on the first ballot, certainly we can pretty much accept he will get the nomination. Yes, I think Newt is going to make a huge comeback on super Tues, but it won't be enough. If Santorum loses both Mi and AZ by more than a few percentages he is an also ran.
 
Old 02-23-2012, 10:16 AM
 
325 posts, read 178,033 times
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The GOP will never let a Mormon get the nomination. Ron Paul is second in delegates. Ron Paul will have the delegates needed to win the nomination and beat Obama.
 
Old 02-23-2012, 10:29 AM
 
Location: Jacksonville, FL
11,145 posts, read 14,076,820 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WheelintheSky View Post
The GOP will never let a Mormon get the nomination. Ron Paul is second in delegates. Ron Paul will have the delegates needed to win the nomination and beat Obama.
Wrong. Ron Paul is dead last in delegates (unfortunately).

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Republican Delegate Count
 
Old 02-23-2012, 10:30 AM
 
Location: Georgia
840 posts, read 675,117 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
and who do you think would be helped by a brokered convention? Do you think the Romney, Gingrich or Santorum delegates will switch to Paul? BTW, just because a candidate heads for a convention without enough delegates to win on the first ballot does not mean it will be a brokered convention

Nita

It won't help Mitt. I don't think it would help Gingrich either. Santorum is a bit nuts IMO and I think by then he would have dropped out. I think it helps Paul. Because he is in 2nd right now as far as delegates...Romney does not want a brokered convention...the republicans if they haven't figured it out yet.They NEED Ron Paul supporters and the only way they are getting them is if Dr Paul is the nominee at least the people I have talked to and the polls I have looked at on the RP forums. We will vote for no one other than Paul. The republicans can do as they did 4 years ago and go ahead with a moderate flip flopper and get their butts kicked again...I will just say I told you so. To me Obama is a smaller threat than any of the 3 stooges would be. They would nuke Iran within a month of being in office. Obama I think is a bit more cool headed than that. I do have to give him credit for that.So Republicans can choose give Ron the nomination with all his supporters that can beat Obama or run one of the 3 stooges and lose because they won't have our support. Its simple.
 
Old 02-23-2012, 10:32 AM
 
Location: Jacksonville, FL
11,145 posts, read 14,076,820 times
Reputation: 7074
Quote:
Originally Posted by RPON View Post
It won't help Mitt. I don't think it would help Gingrich either. Santorum is a bit nuts IMO and I think by then he would have dropped out. I think it helps Paul. Because he is in 2nd right now as far as delegates...Romney does not want a brokered convention...the republicans if they haven't figured it out yet.They NEED Ron Paul supporters and the only way they are getting them is if Dr Paul is the nominee at least the people I have talked to and the polls I have looked at on the RP forums. We will vote for no one other than Paul. The republicans can do as they did 4 years ago and go ahead with a moderate flip flopper and get their butts kicked again...I will just say I told you so. To me Obama is a smaller threat than any of the 3 stooges would be. They would nuke Iran within a month of being in office. Obama I think is a bit more cool headed than that. I do have to give him credit for that.So Republicans can choose give Ron the nomination with all his supporters that can beat Obama or run one of the 3 stooges and lose because they won't have our support. Its simple.
How is Ron Paul #2 in delegate count? According to RCP, he is dead last:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Republican Delegate Count
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