Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
As I clarified in the post, one state is not the be all end all for a candidate. For example, with only 2 exceptions, every Presidential candidate in the 20th century who won Missouri won the Presidency. Missouri was measured as a 'bellweather' for the country because of its diversity in demographics and physical location. That was broken last election cycle.
I can construct a scenario where the path is harder but possible. There is no impossibilities in the quest for the Presidency and attaining 270 votes. And, dare I say, really Romney only needs 269 EVs. If that happens, then he ties Obama and the GOP-controlled HoR chooses the winner.
As I clarified in the post, one state is not the be all end all for a candidate. For example, it used to be that every Presidential candidate had to win Missouri to be the winner. That was broken last election cycle.
I can construct a scenario where the path is harder but possible. There is no impossibilities in the quest for the Presidency and attaining 270 votes. And, dare I say, really Romney only needs 269 EVs. If that happens, then he ties Obama and the GOP-controlled HoR chooses the winner.
I disagree.
Basically it's impossible. It seems pretty clear that Obama will win CA, OR, WA, HI, NM, MN, WI, IL, MI, DC, MD, DE, NJ, NY, MA, CT, RI, VT, and ME. That gives him 227 electoral votes. If also gets VA that is 240 Romney has to fight it out, and win in at least some of the much more heavily democratic states like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Nevada and if he has lost Virginia its going to be very difficult to win much bluer places. In addition some states that are similarly situated in terms of 2008 vote totals like Florida pretty much becomes must win along with Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, Missouri. Imho that would just be a hopeless scenario.
On the other hand Obama can lose Virginia and have at least 5 other ways to win.
NH and IA are not 'heavily Democratic states'. And NV is very winnable for Romney. Plus, Obama starts off automatically with 8 less EVs because of census changes.
I never said that the win was going to be easy. In fact, I already have admitted on this forum that Obama has a better chance of winning re-election especially if the economy is as it is today or perceived to be improving. If the economy is heading south or more malaise comes over the American people because of foreign affairs, then the challenger gains a shot to win.
I actually think the 'prize' will be Florida for the winner. Whoever wins that state has a very good shot of winning the Presidency.
NH and IA are not 'heavily Democratic states'. And NV is very winnable for Romney. Plus, Obama starts off automatically with 8 less EVs because of census changes.
I never said that the win was going to be easy. In fact, I already have admitted on this forum that Obama has a better chance of winning re-election especially if the economy is as it is today or perceived to be improving. If the economy is heading south or more malaise comes over the American people because of foreign affairs, then the challenger gains a shot to win.
Both NH and IA are much more heavily Democratic then Virginia. They are not New York, but I was speaking relative to Virginia.
Basically if the Republican loses Virginia I think it would be impossible for them to recover. I really do. I do not see any logical path to victory Romney can get after losing Virginia. Whereas Obama can get the Kerry states, and any number of combination with or without Virginia to win.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
