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Old 03-01-2012, 07:37 PM
 
Location: Reston
560 posts, read 1,110,497 times
Reputation: 447

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Déjà vu all over again-

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lc...01/ed-1/seq-1/
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Old 03-01-2012, 07:51 PM
 
Location: NC
4,112 posts, read 3,825,774 times
Reputation: 1331
Great read, thanks.
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Old 03-01-2012, 08:27 PM
 
Location: Chicago Area
8,041 posts, read 4,206,828 times
Reputation: 3039
Yep, that was the last time somebody won as nominee coming out of a brokered convention. A corpse dead 100 years could have beaten Herbert Hoover that year after the 1929 stock market collapse.

The GOP won't let a brokered convention happen anymore than the Dems were willing to let it happen in 2008. Fast forward to June 5th when the last batch of states vote -- most importantly the winner take all 172 delegate California vote happens. That will leave only one more state who hasn't voted: Utah. Utah is a gimme for Romney. Take the totals as of June 6th and then add Utah's 40 to Romney's total.

Whoever has the most delegates at that point will be the nominee very soon thereafter. Everything will happen very quickly and it may be sorted within a week or two of the June 5th primaries. Super delegates will all-in for the leader. Most unpledged delegates will all-in for the leader. Everyone but Ron Paul will start looking to trade their delegates for cabinet positions, etc. Hell, Ron Paul might even jump in there if the leader is willing to champion some of his causes, but that's unlikely.

Whoever has the lead on June 6th will get their 1144 delegates and all of the GOP leadership across the nation will line up behind them.
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Old 03-01-2012, 08:51 PM
 
8,487 posts, read 5,908,913 times
Reputation: 1114
Yeah, I don't get all the "prediction" stuff.
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Old 03-01-2012, 09:01 PM
 
48,516 posts, read 83,999,418 times
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I don't think so and its even less likely now than just a few days ago.
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Old 03-01-2012, 09:03 PM
 
Location: NC
10,005 posts, read 9,026,330 times
Reputation: 3073
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010 View Post
Yep, that was the last time somebody won as nominee coming out of a brokered convention. A corpse dead 100 years could have beaten Herbert Hoover that year after the 1929 stock market collapse.

The GOP won't let a brokered convention happen anymore than the Dems were willing to let it happen in 2008. Fast forward to June 5th when the last batch of states vote -- most importantly the winner take all 172 delegate California vote happens. That will leave only one more state who hasn't voted: Utah. Utah is a gimme for Romney. Take the totals as of June 6th and then add Utah's 40 to Romney's total.

Whoever has the most delegates at that point will be the nominee very soon thereafter. Everything will happen very quickly and it may be sorted within a week or two of the June 5th primaries. Super delegates will all-in for the leader. Most unpledged delegates will all-in for the leader. Everyone but Ron Paul will start looking to trade their delegates for cabinet positions, etc. Hell, Ron Paul might even jump in there if the leader is willing to champion some of his causes, but that's unlikely.

Whoever has the lead on June 6th will get their 1144 delegates and all of the GOP leadership across the nation will line up behind them.
The problem for Romney is Texas. He is and has been in 3rd place there for a long time and the primary there was just delayed. As a result Texas is debating whether to go back to being a threshold winner take all state. If that happens Texas' 155 delegates could possibly all go to a non-romney.
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Old 03-01-2012, 10:20 PM
 
Location: Chicago Area
8,041 posts, read 4,206,828 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomstudent View Post
The problem for Romney is Texas. He is and has been in 3rd place there for a long time and the primary there was just delayed. As a result Texas is debating whether to go back to being a threshold winner take all state. If that happens Texas' 155 delegates could possibly all go to a non-romney.
In which case Romney does not become the nominee. Them's the breaks. No idea if that change is allowed by the GOP mid-primary season, but if it is then it throws a whole lotta delegates in a not-Romney column.

Then again, Texas ain't the end all beat all. A very strong showing in both New York and California could make up for it. This year has been anything but predictable. I do gotta say it's been a very entertaining.

I am very curious to see what kind of impact Romney's very large uptick in support has on a lot of races. I have my doubts that any Southern state can actually go for Romney. (Florida isn't part of the traditional south and is it's own animal BTW.) It would actually improve my faith in humanity just a bit if Romney won several Southern states. We'll see what we see.
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Old 03-01-2012, 10:25 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,969 posts, read 14,225,149 times
Reputation: 4563
Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomstudent View Post
The problem for Romney is Texas. He is and has been in 3rd place there for a long time and the primary there was just delayed. As a result Texas is debating whether to go back to being a threshold winner take all state. If that happens Texas' 155 delegates could possibly all go to a non-romney.
Romney led in a poll in January. This is the second most recent poll that I'm aware of.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...se_TX_0117.pdf

Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 03-01-2012 at 10:48 PM..
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Old 03-01-2012, 10:27 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,969 posts, read 14,225,149 times
Reputation: 4563
Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010 View Post
In which case Romney does not become the nominee. Them's the breaks. No idea if that change is allowed by the GOP mid-primary season, but if it is then it throws a whole lotta delegates in a not-Romney column.

Then again, Texas ain't the end all beat all. A very strong showing in both New York and California could make up for it. This year has been anything but predictable. I do gotta say it's been a very entertaining.

I am very curious to see what kind of impact Romney's very large uptick in support has on a lot of races. I have my doubts that any Southern state can actually go for Romney. (Florida isn't part of the traditional south and is it's own animal BTW.) It would actually improve my faith in humanity just a bit if Romney won several Southern states. We'll see what we see.
Texas isn't exactly the "traditional" South either. We're not Florida, but we also aren't Alabama. We have a large evangelical population, but we also have very big cities. 2/3 of the state's popluation is in large metro areas.

McCain, not Huckabee, won the GOP primary in TX in 2008.

With Romney (and the pro-Romney Super PAC) spending enough money on ads and/or with enough momentum, he could win the TX primary. Furthermore, it won't be until May 29th and we have no clue what the race will look like at that time.

Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 03-01-2012 at 10:48 PM..
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Old 03-01-2012, 10:33 PM
 
Location: Fargo, ND
1,034 posts, read 1,094,701 times
Reputation: 325
Romney could win Texas, too soon to tell though. He needs to win Ohio on Tuesday and build on his recent success, OH for Santorum is an absolute must win.
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