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Old 03-04-2012, 06:31 PM
 
Location: Rhode Island
308 posts, read 452,126 times
Reputation: 87

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Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post
Check out this recent Virginia poll. Romney leads Obama in this one:

http://roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/...cs.Feb2012.pdf

Look at the RCP average - this NBC News/Marist poll is an outlier (a rather extreme outlier...and NBC News/Marist polls frequently seem to be).

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

As far as the Virginia Senate election...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia Senate - Allen vs. Kaine

As far as Ohio...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Can anyone honestly try and argue that these NBC News/Marist polls are not outliers?
They appear to be outliers and as more polls come in we will see. The polls can be very fluid, but I doubt the big jump is that much for Obama. I still think Obama has a better than 50% shot at winning Ohio and Virginia.
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Old 03-04-2012, 06:48 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 39,617,572 times
Reputation: 7107
So much for the accuracy of this poll.

Quote:
There has been a shift in party identification from a similar poll conducted in October 2008. At that time, 34% of registered voters considered themselves to be Democrats, 28% identified as Republicans, and 38% called themselves independents. Now, those proportions are 36% Democrat, 24% Republican, and 39% independent.
So, in order to get some numbers they like, they needed a 12 point gap between dems/reps.

About DOUBLE the point spread obama won by in 2008.

I seem to remember a more recent election that would NOT justify using such skewed numbers - the 2010 HISTORIC sweep by the GOP.

I don't believe there is a party registration for VA...so HOW did this pollster come by the 12 point chasm between the dems/reps?

They just made it up, that's how.

Last edited by sanrene; 03-04-2012 at 06:56 PM..
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Old 03-04-2012, 08:04 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,039 posts, read 15,499,706 times
Reputation: 3957
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
So much for the accuracy of this poll.



So, in order to get some numbers they like, they needed a 12 point gap between dems/reps.

About DOUBLE the point spread obama won by in 2008.

I seem to remember a more recent election that would NOT justify using such skewed numbers - the 2010 HISTORIC sweep by the GOP.

I don't believe there is a party registration for VA...so HOW did this pollster come by the 12 point chasm between the dems/reps?

They just made it up, that's how.
Self ID likely, I do agree this poll is an outlier (same thing with the Roanoke poll on the other side of the coin)

the Self ID in VA was Dems +6 in 2008, (no exit polls from 2010 which has no major statewide races)

Using the 08 set of 39-33-27

Obama 49-40 vs Romney
Obama 48-40 vs Romney (with McDonnell as VP)
Obama 53-35 vs Newt
Obama 52-35 vs Paul
Obama 52-34 vs Santorum
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Old 03-04-2012, 08:18 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 923,689 times
Reputation: 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Self ID likely, I do agree this poll is an outlier (same thing with the Roanoke poll on the other side of the coin)

the Self ID in VA was Dems +6 in 2008, (no exit polls from 2010 which has no major statewide races)

Using the 08 set of 39-33-27

Obama 49-40 vs Romney
Obama 48-40 vs Romney (with McDonnell as VP)
Obama 53-35 vs Newt
Obama 52-35 vs Paul
Obama 52-34 vs Santorum
That's a little more realistic, and quite a drop for Rick Santorum I must say. I don't think that the spread will be that large if (big if) Obama does win in November, once it's a two man race. There's no doubt he has a healthy lead at this point, but it's definitely not as large as this poll suggests
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Old 03-04-2012, 08:22 PM
 
Location: North Carolina
1,567 posts, read 2,084,594 times
Reputation: 1629
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheFix View Post
Seems like being Flip-Flop Romney's pet poodle is making Ron "The Prince of Pork" Paul an even bigger joke candidate than he already is.

Obama leads all the the GOP clowns by double-digits, even if they choose Governor Goofy Hair McDonnel in the VP slot. LOL! Go Virginia!

3/4: Romney with Wide Lead over Paul in Virginia | Home of the Marist Poll: Pebbles and Pundits
haha
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Old 03-04-2012, 08:41 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,969 posts, read 14,225,149 times
Reputation: 4563
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Self ID likely, I do agree this poll is an outlier (same thing with the Roanoke poll on the other side of the coin)
No, I wouldn't call the Roanoke poll (where Romney led Obama by 1 point) an outlier - another recent poll (a Christopher Newport University/Richmond Times-Dispatch poll) had Romney leading Obama by 3 points.

http://www.cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/Survey_Re...eb_20_2012.pdf

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
the Self ID in VA was Dems +6 in 2008, (no exit polls from 2010 which has no major statewide races)


Using the 08 set of 39-33-27


Obama 49-40 vs Romney
Obama 48-40 vs Romney (with McDonnell as VP)
Obama 53-35 vs Newt
Obama 52-35 vs Paul
Obama 52-34 vs Santorum
Democratic Party ID Drops in 2010, Tying 22-Year Low

Record-High 40% of Americans Identify as Independents in '11

According to Gallup -

Nationally, in 2008, 36% of people identified as Democrats, 35% as independents, and 28% as Republicans.

In 2011, 31% identified as Democrats, 40% as independents, and 27% as Republicans.

The margin between Democrats and Republicans nationally decreased from 8 points to 4 points.

Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 03-04-2012 at 09:47 PM..
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Old 03-05-2012, 07:44 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, MD
3,240 posts, read 3,289,368 times
Reputation: 3010
Quote:
Originally Posted by RPON View Post
Hard to read through half that drivel the troll threw out there to get to the results...I can't wait to see fix as one of the people crying in their soup come August when Paul ends up with the most delegates at the convention and they can't stop them from pronouncing Paul the nominee.
Oh dear. Paul is going to somehow win the nomination despite not coming close to winning any states and mostly coming in dead last. Paulites really do live in a magical libertarian fairy land, I guess that's the only way you can be a libertarian in the first place.
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Old 03-05-2012, 08:06 AM
 
Location: Norman, OK
3,479 posts, read 6,351,619 times
Reputation: 1197
Paul cannot even win open caucus states... he is on his Farewell Tour and that is all.
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Old 03-05-2012, 08:43 AM
 
Location: Orlando
8,233 posts, read 11,280,741 times
Reputation: 4064
Quote:
Originally Posted by RPON View Post
Hard to read through half that drivel the troll threw out there to get to the results...I can't wait to see fix as one of the people crying in their soup come August when Paul ends up with the most delegates at the convention and they can't stop them from pronouncing Paul the nominee.

Im not sure what you are counting... here is what I saw as of Monday March 5

Source- National Review online
118 - Mitt Romney
29 - Newt Gingrich
17 - Rick Santorum
8 - Ron Paul
211- unbounded


Source Real Clear Pollitics
173 -Romney
74 -Santorum
37 -Paul
33 -Gingrich

So the later source is more Paul positive and still shows him in small numbers. Am I missing something?
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Old 03-05-2012, 10:43 AM
 
Location: MW
1,433 posts, read 996,072 times
Reputation: 544
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhenomenalAJ View Post
Oh dear. Paul is going to somehow win the nomination despite not coming close to winning any states and mostly coming in dead last. Paulites really do live in a magical libertarian fairy land, I guess that's the only way you can be a libertarian in the first place.
Oh wow! Another person who doesn't like a whole portion on the political spectrum!
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