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Old 03-10-2012, 09:21 AM
 
12,639 posts, read 7,290,093 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruin Rick View Post
He has a good chance of winning NC. NC is more Democratic now because many thousands of new transplants have moved into that state. He can win either that or Ohio and still win because he is going to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan
Oblama has no chance in Wisconsin.
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Old 03-10-2012, 09:39 AM
 
1,182 posts, read 981,011 times
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Originally Posted by Trace21230 View Post
Oblama has no chance in Wisconsin.
No chance? So EVERY poll taken there is wrong?? He has an excellent chance

RealClearPolitics - Wisconsin: Obama vs. Republicans
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Old 03-10-2012, 09:41 AM
 
12,639 posts, read 7,290,093 times
Reputation: 7449
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruin Rick View Post
No chance? So EVERY poll taken there is wrong?? He has an excellent chance

RealClearPolitics - Wisconsin: Obama vs. Republicans
None of those polls are really relevant at this point. Wisconsin now has voter ID, so Democrat voter fraud in Milwaukee and Madison just won't work this time.

Obama will lose Wisconsin.
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Old 03-10-2012, 09:42 AM
 
9,338 posts, read 9,474,032 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bryantm3 View Post
you can throw around maps all you want, but this far out it's really just a wild guess to try and determine what's going to happen months from now. with the possibility of a major candidate from americans elect there may be a split vote on either the D or R side. barring that, i think this is what we're looking at:

north carolina and indiana are out of the picture this election cycle.

here's the swing states that could easily go republican this year:

ohio
florida
colorado
iowa
virginia

these could swing into the red column, but it's an uphill battle:

new hampshire
new mexico
nevada
pennsylvania
Massachusetts

i don't think obama's going to pick up any states, although there is a possibility looking at arizona with an influx of new immigrants.
thats IF Romney gets the Nomination.
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Old 03-10-2012, 09:42 AM
 
1,182 posts, read 981,011 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bryantm3 View Post
you can throw around maps all you want, but this far out it's really just a wild guess to try and determine what's going to happen months from now. with the possibility of a major candidate from americans elect there may be a split vote on either the D or R side. barring that, i think this is what we're looking at:

north carolina and indiana are out of the picture this election cycle.

here's the swing states that could easily go republican this year:

ohio
florida
colorado
iowa
virginia

these could swing into the red column, but it's an uphill battle:

new hampshire
new mexico
nevada
pennsylvania


i don't think obama's going to pick up any states, although there is a possibility looking at arizona with an influx of new immigrants.
Ohio and Virgina could go red. Iowa is certain red. Florida is a toss up but since I think Rubio will be Romney's VP choice, I am putting that state in the red column. Colorado, Nevada and Pennsylvania will vote for Obama.
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Old 03-10-2012, 09:44 AM
 
1,182 posts, read 981,011 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trace21230 View Post
None of those polls are really relevant at this point. Wisconsin now has voter ID, so Democrat voter fraud in Milwaukee and Madison just won't work this time.

Obama will lose Wisconsin.
Obama will win Wisconsin by 4 points. I predict it now. Unless something goes seriously wrong with the country between now and November. There is no state in the upper midwest that the reds will get except Indiana and maybe Ohio.
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Old 03-10-2012, 09:49 AM
 
1,182 posts, read 981,011 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010 View Post
The problem with your "most probable scenario" is Colorado. Obama picked up a number of Red states because the Bush years were awful and Colorado was just one example.

A more likely scenario: 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

And you gotta admit that would be a lot funnier than the "most probable scenario you offered.

I wouldn't say Obama has a lock on Ohio. Far from it. But I do think it would be very funny to have a history-making tie vote. That's too much fun!!
In my view Obama can win either Ohio or North Carolina and win. Ohio depends on turn out. There are more Democrats there but Republicans that dominate the lower third of the state around Cincinatti and Dayton tend to turn out. What we have to do is make sure people in Cleveland, Toledo and Columbus turn out and that is often a battle.
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