U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 03-06-2012, 04:51 PM
 
Location: West Egg
2,161 posts, read 1,666,540 times
Reputation: 1278

Advertisements

Why?

Well, maybe it won't happen. But what probably will happen in 2012 is that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee and Rick Santorum will finish as the runner-up. And what happens to runners up in GOP nomination battles? They go on to win the nomination 'next time'.

Ronald Reagan was the runner-up in 1968, and against a Republican incumbent President in 1976. The next time the race for the nomination was open, in 1980, he won it.

George H.W. Bush was the runner-up in 1980, then won it the next time the race for the nomination was open in 1988.

Bob Dole was the runner-up in 1988, then won it the next time the race for the nomination was open in 1996.

John McCain was the runner-up in 2000, then won it the next time the race for the nomination was open in 2008.

Mitt Romney was the runner-up in 2008, and will probably win the nomination in 2012.

The only break in this trend was in 2000, when the previous runner-up (Pat Buchanan, in 1996) did not win the Republican nomination. But he didn't seek the nomination -- he just wasn't in the race.

There is a trend here, and a strong trend. No doubt there will be a lot of "No way! Rick Santorum will never be the nominee!". But then, the same thing was said in 2005, 2006, 2007 about John McCain. The same thing has been said about Mitt Romney these past three years. All trends come to an end eventually. But this may well be Santorum's trial run. Next time, he'll have a better understanding of how to run a nomination race, as well as a pre-existing infrastructure of aides, supporters and volunteers.

If Romney loses in November, keep a close eye on Santorum's posturing.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 03-06-2012, 04:53 PM
 
650 posts, read 1,005,088 times
Reputation: 501
Please, God no, not frothy the fanatic...
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-06-2012, 04:57 PM
Sco
 
4,259 posts, read 4,244,770 times
Reputation: 3359
No way! Senator Frothy has one shot in 2012, if he loses that will be the end of his political career. In 2016, he would be facing much stiffer competition. In 2016, the GOP will pick a nominee from the varsity squad. Santorum is punching way above his weight.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-06-2012, 05:03 PM
 
Location: West Egg
2,161 posts, read 1,666,540 times
Reputation: 1278
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sco View Post
No way! Senator Frothy has one shot in 2012, if he loses that will be the end of his political career. In 2016, he would be facing much stiffer competition. In 2016, the GOP will pick a nominee from the varsity squad. Santorum is punching way above his weight.
We're always told to just wait, 'next time' the Young Turks will take over the GOP show!

But they never do...
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-06-2012, 05:06 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,078 posts, read 17,688,908 times
Reputation: 7721
If Santorum is the nominee in 2016, it'll just mean that the GOP will lose two elections in a row.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-06-2012, 05:10 PM
Sco
 
4,259 posts, read 4,244,770 times
Reputation: 3359
Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Onions View Post
We're always told to just wait, 'next time' the Young Turks will take over the GOP show!

But they never do...
Do you really think that if Santorum loses either the 2012 primary or general elections that the GOP is going to pick him over Jeb Bush, Jindal, Christie, or even Palin?

If someone really thinks that Frothy is going to be the presidential nominee for the GOP in 2016, they are delusional. The only reason that he is still in the 2012 race is because the best GOP candidates rightly knew that they would most likely just be cannon fodder against an incumbent Obama.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-06-2012, 05:17 PM
 
Location: West Egg
2,161 posts, read 1,666,540 times
Reputation: 1278
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sco View Post
Do you really think that if Santorum loses either the 2012 primary or general elections that the GOP is going to pick him over Jeb Bush, Jindal, Christie, or even Palin?

If someone really thinks that Frothy is going to be the presidential nominee for the GOP in 2016, they are delusional. The only reason that he is still in the 2012 race is because the best GOP candidates rightly knew that they would most likely just be cannon fodder against an incumbent Obama.
"Do you really think that if McCain loses either the 2000 primary or general elections that the GOP is going to pick him over X, Y and Z?"

Remember McCain? He said he didn't want Roe v. Wade overturned, he opposed the Bush tax cuts, he called Jerry Falwell an 'agent of intolerance'. Then he did a 180, and snagged the nomination.

"Do you really think that if Romney loses either the 2008 primary or general elections that the GOP is going to pick him over X, Y and Z?"

As for Romney, if I can see the GOP nominating as hopelessly inept and feckless a candidate as him, I can see them nominating one who at least speaks the language -- and genuinely -- of the social conservative base.

It's what the GOP does. Maybe they won't in 2016. But don't underestimate the value of running and not winning. It teaches a candidate how to run. The next time around, they're not learning on the fly, they're putting lessons they learned the first time into practice.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-06-2012, 05:22 PM
 
10,115 posts, read 7,004,261 times
Reputation: 3408
Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Onions View Post
"Do you really think that if McCain loses either the 2000 primary or general elections that the GOP is going to pick him over X, Y and Z?"

Remember McCain? He said he didn't want Roe v. Wade overturned, he opposed the Bush tax cuts, he called Jerry Falwell an 'agent of intolerance'. Then he did a 180, and snagged the nomination.

"Do you really think that if Romney loses either the 2008 primary or general elections that the GOP is going to pick him over X, Y and Z?"

As for Romney, if I can see the GOP nominating as hopelessly inept and feckless a candidate as him, I can see them nominating one who at least speaks the language -- and genuinely -- of the social conservative base.

It's what the GOP does. Maybe they won't in 2016. But don't underestimate the value of running and not winning. It teaches a candidate how to run. The next time around, they're not learning on the fly, they're putting lessons they learned the first time into practice.
I'm a moderate R. I think we need to kick the radical social conservatives out of the party, and if that means a big whooping this november so we can rebuild quickly and come back strong, then so be it. Santorum is not part of that plan. That brand of social conservatism will never, ever win a general election, and the sooner the R base figures that out the better.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-06-2012, 05:28 PM
Sco
 
4,259 posts, read 4,244,770 times
Reputation: 3359
Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Onions View Post
"Do you really think that if McCain loses either the 2000 primary or general elections that the GOP is going to pick him over X, Y and Z?"

Remember McCain? He said he didn't want Roe v. Wade overturned, he opposed the Bush tax cuts, he called Jerry Falwell an 'agent of intolerance'. Then he did a 180, and snagged the nomination.

"Do you really think that if Romney loses either the 2008 primary or general elections that the GOP is going to pick him over X, Y and Z?"

As for Romney, if I can see the GOP nominating as hopelessly inept and feckless a candidate as him, I can see them nominating one who at least speaks the language -- and genuinely -- of the social conservative base.

It's what the GOP does. Maybe they won't in 2016. But don't underestimate the value of running and not winning. It teaches a candidate how to run. The next time around, they're not learning on the fly, they're putting lessons they learned the first time into practice.
I am asking you what you think. Do you really believe that Santorum will be able to beat the A team GOP candidates that are all but guaranteed to run in 2016?

And I am sorry, but to compare Santorum to McCain is an insult. McCain is a genuine war hero, a longtime Senator that before the Palin fiasco was well respected on both sides of the aisle. Santorum is just a frothy mess of hatred that many in his own party can't even stand.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-06-2012, 06:24 PM
 
Location: The Other California
4,255 posts, read 4,732,702 times
Reputation: 1527
It could well happen. Americans are in a volatile place right now. Most have lived the liberal society dream and are more discontented than ever. That could mean a new openness to Santorum's message. The upcoming generation is vacuous and alienated, but at the same time they don't have the entrenched hostility towards traditional values that earlier generations had. On the other hand, the American people might continue on their present sad trajectory. Could go either way.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:01 PM.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top