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Old 03-07-2012, 06:05 AM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 920,871 times
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I saw this comment from michiganmoon in the official primary thread, and thought it merited it's own discussion:
Quote:
If you look at the exit polls, it seems like people were holding religion against Romney in the 3 states that he lost to Santorum in. People who said that the religion of their candidate was very important overwhelmingly went for Santorum. People who said it wasn't important overwhelmingly went for Romney in the 3 states that Santorum won.
Now, some may think I'm trying to come up with excuses for Romney. But even I thought his religion wasn't that much of a problem anymore. I figured that many Southern and evangelical voters genuinely (and wrongly) believed he wasn't conservative enough. But this evidence, which can be seen in any exit polls, makes it sound as if their only problem with him is his faith.

Now, I think everybody would have thought this question was a no-brainer a few years ago, but we don't seem to hear about Romney's religion as much anymore and I thought we'd mostly moved past it. I figured many Romney-opponents in the GOP would happily vote for other staunchly conservative Mormons in spite of personal discomforts with the faith (Chaffetz, Glenn Beck, Mike Lee, etc) and that their opposition to Romney was based purely on his perceived lack of conservatism. I now truly think it is his faith that is keeping him from clinching the nomination. Not an overwhelming opposition, but enough in some Southern states that it keeps him from being competitive. It also may be keeping his margins down in some Midwestern states. Thoughts?
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Old 03-07-2012, 06:07 AM
 
Location: Georgia
840 posts, read 674,755 times
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No. That would be his flip flopping on every issue whenever it fit his needs for political gain.
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Old 03-07-2012, 06:14 AM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 920,871 times
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Well what do you make of the exit poll data I referenced?
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Old 03-07-2012, 08:01 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,678 posts, read 83,244,992 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
Well what do you make of the exit poll data I referenced?
unfortunately I think it is hurting him and i tought all along it would. That being said, when push comes to shove, most in the south will support the Republican choice. His flip flopping hasn't helped him and his inablility to relate to the middle class is also a concern.

Nita
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Old 03-07-2012, 08:07 AM
 
Location: NC
4,112 posts, read 3,811,515 times
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It's definitely hurting him. I've talked to Santorum supporters (the same ones who were for Gingrich, Cain, Perry, et al) and their number one beef with Romney is his religion.. I think the upcoming contests in the South will show this.
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Old 03-07-2012, 08:16 AM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 920,871 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
unfortunately I think it is hurting him and i tought all along it would. That being said, when push comes to shove, most in the south will support the Republican choice. His flip flopping hasn't helped him and his inablility to relate to the middle class is also a concern.

Nita

I don't mean to pull the religion card like it's the race card. I do think those two factors are hurting Romney (keep in mind I'm not conceding those two factors, I am conceding that that perception certainly exists though ) and I thought that most Southern and/or Evangelical voters were probably voting against him for those reasons more than anything else. But, I mean, exit polling that suggests Romney likely could have won Oklahoma and Tennessee if it weren't for people who vote for a candidate's religion above everything else? It seems like I was naive to think people wouldn't consider his Mormon faith as being too big a factor.
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Old 03-07-2012, 08:17 AM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 920,871 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SNEwx_46 View Post
It's definitely hurting him. I've talked to Santorum supporters (the same ones who were for Gingrich, Cain, Perry, et al) and their number one beef with Romney is his religion.. I think the upcoming contests in the South will show this.
That's unfortunate. I'm glad most people on this forum are at least willing to debate about Romney on the issues and on his record rather than his private religious beliefs.
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Old 03-07-2012, 08:19 AM
 
Location: Out in the Badlands
10,425 posts, read 8,749,270 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
I saw this comment from michiganmoon in the official primary thread, and thought it merited it's own discussion:


Now, some may think I'm trying to come up with excuses for Romney. But even I thought his religion wasn't that much of a problem anymore. I figured that many Southern and evangelical voters genuinely (and wrongly) believed he wasn't conservative enough. But this evidence, which can be seen in any exit polls, makes it sound as if their only problem with him is his faith.

Now, I think everybody would have thought this question was a no-brainer a few years ago, but we don't seem to hear about Romney's religion as much anymore and I thought we'd mostly moved past it. I figured many Romney-opponents in the GOP would happily vote for other staunchly conservative Mormons in spite of personal discomforts with the faith (Chaffetz, Glenn Beck, Mike Lee, etc) and that their opposition to Romney was based purely on his perceived lack of conservatism. I now truly think it is his faith that is keeping him from clinching the nomination. Not an overwhelming opposition, but enough in some Southern states that it keeps him from being competitive. It also may be keeping his margins down in some Midwestern states. Thoughts?
No...but his milk toast pronouncements of late will....'can't we all just get along'...NO.
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Old 03-07-2012, 08:20 AM
 
Location: Charlotte
12,646 posts, read 13,893,120 times
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Where's the Data? This entire conversation is circumspect without data.
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Old 03-07-2012, 08:27 AM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 920,871 times
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I said it was in the exit polls, there available at every major network's site. (Edit - I may actually not have been clear enough about that. I should've just posted it. Sorry, here it is)

Primaries - Exit/Entrance Polls - Election Center 2012 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
Primaries - Exit/Entrance Polls - Election Center 2012 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
Primaries - Exit/Entrance Polls - Election Center 2012 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

The outcome of Georgia wouldn't have changed if people didn't vote based on religious belief, but it would have helped Romney significantly. The other states he would have won if people didn't vote based on religion.
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