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Old 03-07-2012, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Rhode Island
308 posts, read 450,415 times
Reputation: 87

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I think it shows how weak Mitt. At least viewed by republicans and trying to impress republicans he has hurt his credibility with independents.
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Old 03-07-2012, 01:47 PM
 
Location: West Egg
2,161 posts, read 1,659,406 times
Reputation: 1278
Quote:
Originally Posted by wxjay View Post
This is your proof of growing weaker with time?

The race for the nomination is how many delegates are amassed, not how many people voted or how many states were won or where those states are. The fact is that Romney picked up nearly 45% of the available delegates from Super Tuesday. In states where he won, he won the majority of the delegates. In Santorum win states, he split the delegate count with Santorum (and Gingrich in OK). Romney now has more than twice as many delegates than Santorum or Gingrich and more than the two combined. Plus, the 'superdelegates' are not even assigned yet. That is another ~100-120 that Romney should grab the majority of.

To win the nomination, Santorum must win nearly 65% of the remaining delegates. Gingrich must win 70% of the remaining delegates. Some favorable Romney states like CA, NJ, and DE, the contest is winner take all. I don't see the math for Santorum or Gingrich to battle back unless one of them drops out and pledges all their delegates to the other.
I see you didn't bother to read to the end of my post where I wrote:
"Do I still think Romney wins the nomination? Yes. But this is an illustration of a party deeply ambivalent (at best) about its prospective nominee."
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Old 03-07-2012, 01:51 PM
 
Location: West Egg
2,161 posts, read 1,659,406 times
Reputation: 1278
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
I wouldn't say 3pts is a statistically significant difference when one considers that Georgia was by far the largest state voting. You could argue that he isn't getting stronger, and I think that's what many of the pundits seem to be saying. And that is a concern, I'll admit. But I would think we need more data to claim he is getting weaker, and I think we should make apples to apples comparisons when we get that data (ie - his vote totals in Alabama/Mississippi should be compared to South Carolina or Tennessee, Kansas should be compared to Missouri/Oklahoma, etc. And to be fair, Hawaii shouldn't be compared to Minnesota to claim he is getting stronger either).
Ohio was by far the largest state voting -- Georgia did have more delegates, though. Regardless, that is more than offset by the huge advantage of getting to run up the score in Virginia, where neither Santorum nor Gingrich were on the ballot.
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Old 03-07-2012, 01:51 PM
 
674 posts, read 1,014,474 times
Reputation: 562
I don't care what the numbers are: there's now way Romney, Gingrich, or Santorum win the presidential election if they become the nominee.
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Old 03-07-2012, 01:52 PM
 
Location: West Egg
2,161 posts, read 1,659,406 times
Reputation: 1278
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chi-turtle View Post
I don't care what the numbers are: there's now way Romney, Gingrich, or Santorum win the presidential election if they become the nominee.
I'm certainly not arguing that Gingrich or Santorum are better candidates than Romney.
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Old 03-07-2012, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
22,243 posts, read 15,262,614 times
Reputation: 4583
Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Onions View Post
I see you didn't bother to read to the end of my post where I wrote:
"Do I still think Romney wins the nomination? Yes. But this is an illustration of a party deeply ambivalent (at best) about its prospective nominee."
Pretty weak ...

Alec MacGillis: The Unbearable Weakness Of Mitt Romney | The New Republic
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Old 03-07-2012, 02:25 PM
 
674 posts, read 1,014,474 times
Reputation: 562
Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Onions View Post
I'm certainly not arguing that Gingrich or Santorum are better candidates than Romney.
Romney = Santorum = Gingrich = Obama

Jokes on you, they're all the same
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Old 03-07-2012, 09:22 PM
 
Location: CHicago, United States
6,936 posts, read 7,236,288 times
Reputation: 3490
Thus far, he's failed to excite the base of the party. More of the GOP faithful are opposed to him than in favor. As we move into the midwest primaries some of that will change - in the moderate states such as Illinois. But the crackers, rednecks and extremists in some of the other states will never support him.
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Old 03-08-2012, 04:16 AM
 
16,680 posts, read 9,057,703 times
Reputation: 6740
People were saying that Obama was getting weaker about this time 4 years ago too.

Romney has won 11 of the last 15 states and people are acting like Santorum who has won 3 of the last 15 states is the front runner.
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Old 03-08-2012, 08:14 AM
 
10,635 posts, read 6,031,994 times
Reputation: 5612
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
People were saying that Obama was getting weaker about this time 4 years ago too.

Romney has won 11 of the last 15 states and people are acting like Santorum who has won 3 of the last 15 states is the front runner.
Neither Obama nor Clinton got weaker during the long 2008 primary season. The opposite is true, actually--the Democratic base got more fired up as the race went on. Consider the numbers from Ohio of the front runners from four years ago to now and then explain to me why you think either Romney or Santorum look particularly strong, or how the GOP doesn't have an enthusiasm gap:

2012 Ohio GOP Primary
Mitt Romney 456,513
Rick Santorum 446,225

2008 Ohio Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton 1,259,620
Barack Obama 1,055,769

More than twice the number of voters turned out for Obama alone in Ohio in 2008 than turned out for both the Republican front runners combined this year. I'd say the GOP has a problem.
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