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Add up the vote totals from all the primaries prior to yesterday: Romney: 40.7% (1,853,823 votes) Santorum: 24.1% (1,098,497 votes) Gingrich: 21.7% (990,544 votes)
Then compare them to yesterday's results: Romney: 37.9% (1,389,555 votes) Santorum: 27.0% (989,520 votes) Gingrich: 22.6% (829,169 votes)
Bear in mind that yesterday included a large state (Virginia, 8 million+ population, 12th largest in the U.S.) where Romney got to run up the score because neither Santorum nor Gingrich were on the ballot. And his total share of the vote still dropped 3%, his margin over Gingrich dropped by 4%, and his margin over Santorum dropped by 6%.
Do I still think Romney wins the nomination? Yes. But this is an illustration of a party deeply ambivalent (at best) about its prospective nominee.
The race for the nomination is how many delegates are amassed, not how many people voted or how many states were won or where those states are. The fact is that Romney picked up nearly 45% of the available delegates from Super Tuesday. In states where he won, he won the majority of the delegates. In Santorum win states, he split the delegate count with Santorum (and Gingrich in OK). Romney now has more than twice as many delegates than Santorum or Gingrich and more than the two combined. Plus, the 'superdelegates' are not even assigned yet. That is another ~100-120 that Romney should grab the majority of.
To win the nomination, Santorum must win nearly 65% of the remaining delegates. Gingrich must win 70% of the remaining delegates. Some favorable Romney states like CA, NJ, and DE, the contest is winner take all. I don't see the math for Santorum or Gingrich to battle back unless one of them drops out and pledges all their delegates to the other.
Add up the vote totals from all the primaries prior to yesterday: Romney: 40.7% (1,853,823 votes) Santorum: 24.1% (1,098,497 votes) Gingrich: 21.7% (990,544 votes)
Then compare them to yesterday's results: Romney: 37.9% (1,389,555 votes) Santorum: 27.0% (989,520 votes) Gingrich: 22.6% (829,169 votes)
Bear in mind that yesterday included a large state (Virginia, 8 million+ population, 12th largest in the U.S.) where Romney got to run up the score because neither Santorum nor Gingrich were on the ballot. And his total share of the vote still dropped 3%, his margin over Gingrich dropped by 4%, and his margin over Santorum dropped by 6%.
Do I still think Romney wins the nomination? Yes. But this is an illustration of a party deeply ambivalent (at best) about its prospective nominee.
Yes, the number bear out that every race leaves him weaker.
"Demographically, his image among independent voters, the most critical swing group, is more negative now than it was when the primary battle began. He could be hurt among women. He is in trouble with Latinos, a growing part of the electorate that is tilting even more Democratic than it was four years ago. He is not as strong as he needs to be among working-class white voters, among whom President Obama has been consistently weak.
Geographically, the numbers from several key states have been discouraging for the former Massachusetts governor. Pre-primary polls in Ohio, Virginia and Michigan showed him running behind Obama by low double digits. Ohio is a must-win for the Republican nominee in the fall, and Virginia is a state the GOP is determined to take back from the president. Republicans once thought Michigan would be a possible battleground, but at this point it isn’t"
I think it's obvious that he will win the nomination, but if he thinks he's having a tough time now, he ain't seen nothing yet. He will have to move back toward the center in the general election, and this will confirm what right wing conservatives have claimed all along--that Romney is a RINO, a phony conservative. It's hard to see a path to victory for him in November.
The race for the nomination is how many delegates are amassed, not how many people voted or how many states were won or where those states are. The fact is that Romney picked up nearly 45% of the available delegates from Super Tuesday. In states where he won, he won the majority of the delegates. In Santorum win states, he split the delegate count with Santorum (and Gingrich in OK). Romney now has more than twice as many delegates than Santorum or Gingrich and more than the two combined. Plus, the 'superdelegates' are not even assigned yet. That is another ~100-120 that Romney should grab the majority of.
To win the nomination, Santorum must win nearly 65% of the remaining delegates. Gingrich must win 70% of the remaining delegates. Some favorable Romney states like CA, NJ, and DE, the contest is winner take all. I don't see the math for Santorum or Gingrich to battle back unless one of them drops out and pledges all their delegates to the other.
I don't think the OP was claiming Romney wouldn't win the nomination. It was a comment on what kind of shape he would be in for the general election. The numbers show shrinking support for Romney with each primary, which doesn't bode well for him in the general election.
When it was all over, Mr. Romney won about 40 percent of the popular vote, took about 50 percent of the delegates and won 60 percent of the states — all ratios that are extremely consistent with what he had done to date.
I wouldn't say 3pts is a statistically significant difference when one considers that Georgia was by far the largest state voting. You could argue that he isn't getting stronger, and I think that's what many of the pundits seem to be saying. And that is a concern, I'll admit. But I would think we need more data to claim he is getting weaker, and I think we should make apples to apples comparisons when we get that data (ie - his vote totals in Alabama/Mississippi should be compared to South Carolina or Tennessee, Kansas should be compared to Missouri/Oklahoma, etc. And to be fair, Hawaii shouldn't be compared to Minnesota to claim he is getting stronger either).
Dan Quayle would be the perfect running mate for weak $Willard
Weakest ticket in history
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