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Old 03-07-2012, 03:53 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 1,084,142 times
Reputation: 235

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Please read this article about the mathematics of the primary:

Doing the Math on Romney's Path - Hugh Hewitt - Townhall Conservative Columnists - Page 1

Townhall is hardly pro-Romney, most columnists they have seem to be on the hunt for a conservative alternative.

Romney may be having trouble making inroads with strong conservatives and strong tea party supporters. But his opponents are having even more trouble making inroads with moderates, people looking for electability, etc. All in all, Romney has control over a larger portion of the GOP than any of his rivals, and he's been consistently earning over 50% of delegates. Unless Newt and Santorum can make inroads into groups that are strong for Romney (and then some), they cannot come to the magic number of delegates. Could they stay in long enough to keep Romney from reaching 1144? Unlikely, but possibly. In that situation, the GOP power brokers would choose a nominee. If Romney has the plurality, and in any remotely realistic scenario he would, they would choose him. Either that or they would choose a whole new candidate (but it's unlikely they'll pick someone in August who has yet to be vetted). In either case, there is NO WAY Santorum or Gingrich get 1144 delegates, and there is NO WAY the party chooses either of them in a brokered convention. Gingrich and Santorum, will never be the GOP nominee, much less president of the US. Some polls have shown Newt's supporters actually going to Romney, others have shown them going to Santorum. But what I can say, is when Romney and Huckabee were fighting to be the conservative alternative to McCain, Romney dropped out. His supporters didn't line up behind Huckabee, they went with McCain. Even if one did drop out, there's no evidence it would effect have any tremendous effect on the actual delegate count. Even if Newt drops out and a majority of supporters go to Santorum, some will inevitably still go to Romney. It may have helped Santorum win, say, Ohio, but everything else would be the same. And delegate-wise, that would hardly make a difference.

There is no path to victory for either Santorum and Newt, because what the media won't tell you is that they're having more trouble breaking into Romney's mainstream Republican advantage than Romney is breaking into their blue collar, tea party Republican advantage. They can only stay in this to bloody Romney at this point. If that's what they want to do, then fine. But Republicans need to know that's what they're doing so they can see that this behavior is egotistical, bad for the party, and bad for conservatism at a time when America needs it most.

As for Ron Paul - I don't want to turn this into another debate about whether his caucusing will get him the 1144 he needs. What I will say, is that I respect him and respect him less if he did drop out. He is a movement candidate, and I see him as fighting a whole separate battle. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure he is fighting for the nomination, but I think he's also fighting for a bigger cause. That's what I didn't mention him in all this, not because I'm ignoring. Plus, I don't think he's necessarily fighting over the same voters as everyone else.
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Old 03-07-2012, 03:55 PM
 
42 posts, read 25,267 times
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The goal for them is a brokered convention. They feel that Romney is a weak candidate and want to make the case at the convention or get somebody else involved.

They know they can't win it. They want to keep Romney from winning it.
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Old 03-07-2012, 04:10 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 1,084,142 times
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Thanks. That's pretty much what I was thinking too. Every candidate has baggage. All of them. There is no way we want to run a candidate that doesn't have their baggage already out there before August. If there is a brokered convention, it will go to Romney.
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Old 03-07-2012, 05:44 PM
 
8,754 posts, read 10,132,157 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
Thanks. That's pretty much what I was thinking too. Every candidate has baggage. All of them. There is no way we want to run a candidate that doesn't have their baggage already out there before August. If there is a brokered convention, it will go to Romney.


Exactly, introducing someone new at the convention or even at this late date would be an automatic loss...just crown Obama right now if that happen.s This ultra conservative alternative that they non-Romney's keep looking for? I wonder who they think that is? They aren't going to ride in a white horse and save the day.
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Old 03-07-2012, 05:54 PM
NCN
 
Location: NC/SC Border Patrol
21,663 posts, read 25,532,735 times
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This is not about math. It is about who will be the next president. No one has the right to tell anyone they should stop running. That is the choice of the person running. If you are a Republican and want a Republican in the White House, you better hope it is a brokered convention. All the liberal news stations are trying to make Romney look presidental because they know that if he becomes the candidate for the Republicans; Obama will win.

Romney says he loves America but banks in the Cayman Islands. Obama will make toast out of him. A brokered convention and starting all over again would be the best thing that can happen.
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Old 03-07-2012, 06:00 PM
 
42 posts, read 25,267 times
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I disagree. I think if the republicans are serious about beating Obama, they'll go the brokered convention route and get rid of Romney.
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Old 03-07-2012, 06:03 PM
 
Location: #
9,598 posts, read 16,516,065 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dr1204 View Post
I disagree. I think if the republicans are serious about beating Obama, they'll go the brokered convention route and get rid of Romney.
It's too late. The Republican brand is severely damaged.
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Old 03-07-2012, 06:09 PM
 
42 posts, read 25,267 times
Reputation: 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by crbcrbrgv View Post
It's too late. The Republican brand is severely damaged.
So if its already severely damaged, whats the difference? At least you can try and get a conservative in the field with a brokered convention.
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Old 03-07-2012, 06:26 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 1,084,142 times
Reputation: 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by NCN View Post
This is not about math. It is about who will be the next president. No one has the right to tell anyone they should stop running. That is the choice of the person running. If you are a Republican and want a Republican in the White House, you better hope it is a brokered convention. All the liberal news stations are trying to make Romney look presidental because they know that if he becomes the candidate for the Republicans; Obama will win.

Romney says he loves America but banks in the Cayman Islands. Obama will make toast out of him. A brokered convention and starting all over again would be the best thing that can happen.
I agree with what you said about their right to keep running, and I even said that in my OP actually. I just want to make sure voters know the best they can do is beat up Romney more, they have no chance of winning. If that's their prerogative that's fine, I just want to make sure Republican voters know that.

I just got an email from the Romney campaign making the same argument i have. Here's some of what they said:
There's only one Super Tuesday. Yesterday was the other candidates' only real chance to stage any real comeback in the delegate race.

Quote:
Only four of the remaining 34 state contests award their statewide delegates on a winner-take-all basis. And those four contests are all favorable for Mitt: Utah, New Jersey, Washington D.C., and Delaware.

Before Super Tuesday, nearly half of all contests were caucuses, but only seven of the remaining 34 contests are caucuses. Primaries require a strong national organization that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich simply don't have.
Santorum and Newt have no chance. Look how fast Romney soured on people? Look how fast Santorum grew on people? Look how fast Obama has gone up, then down, now starting to go up again? As soon as we get out of this nominating process, Romney is going to start to look better to the electorate again, and Obama worse. People change their minds pretty easily, and they're very fickle with their politicians. Just look at what we've seen the past few months. I can't say Romney will definitely win the general, there is absolutely no way to know who will win at this point.
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Old 03-07-2012, 07:22 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,772 posts, read 104,280,990 times
Reputation: 49247
Quote:
Originally Posted by dr1204 View Post
I disagree. I think if the republicans are serious about beating Obama, they'll go the brokered convention route and get rid of Romney.
remember though, the 4 times since 1960 there has been no winner in the first vote the eventual candidate has lost: Goldwater, Hunphrey, McGovern and Ford. This might be something for everyone to think about.
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