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Old 03-07-2012, 09:18 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 920,776 times
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I don't think he'll get Michigan. Minnesota is pretty blue - the only state in the country that can say it never voted for Ronald Reagan. That probably wouldn't be the case if Mondale were from any other state, but still - they chose Franken over Coleman, a pragmatic moderate. Wisconsin has trended red... is Scott Walker's recall election the same day as the general (I would imagine, but I don't know for sure)? That would bring out a lot of people in both parties, but I think Democrats disproportionately. I don't know, Romney may have a chance there. PA is not a swing state, I don't know why they always think it will be. He will definitely win IN, that will not go to Obama again. He could win Ohio, it will be a tough battle. NH would be tough - but it has gotten a lot more red in the past 3 years in spite of having been trending more democratic prior than that - it was the only state in the Union to go Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. From what I understand though, a lot of the Bay Staters that move across the border to New Hampshire tend to be Republicans that feel disenfranchised in Massachusetts, so that may be a contributing factor. NH will be tough, but it could go either way.
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Old 03-07-2012, 09:54 PM
 
Location: Fargo, ND
1,034 posts, read 1,091,591 times
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NH, OH, IND and Iowa are really his best bets to turn red. Wisconsin and PA would be possible but extremely tough. I think his bailout view has doomed him in Michigan, his strong showing in Southwestern Ohio does give me a better feeling about his chances in that state and really that is the one he absolutely must have.
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Old 03-07-2012, 10:05 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,013,607 times
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Michigans' rebound under a GOP governor will help Mitt there. Add in their national worst unemployment rate under Granholm, and Mi could well come into play.

There has been tremendous employment opportunities lost due to the militant union members there (VW avoided them like the plague), and that will create a backlash vote among many MI residents against the union supported party. While it may not be equal in number, bear in mind, union members could not stop the GOP from winning the governors race last time in MI.

Pa is definitely a swing state, as well as NH. If Wisconsins job growth is like the first year under Walker, that is a possible state for MR, also. W/O a more favorable business climate, its questionable if Harley Davidson or Kohler would have stayed.

Ohio will IMO be solid GOP. Not even a swing state, by November.
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Old 03-07-2012, 10:22 PM
 
Location: 31.32' North
97 posts, read 260,004 times
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All of you raise interesting points, thank you for the feedback.

I just wanted to get a better idea of which states that are not traditionally considered swing states might be in play - basically, Rust Belt states (with the exception of NH and IA). States that Obama carried in 08, that have been deeply hurt by the recession, that might not be so kind to him this go around.

I do not personally know anyone who lives in Ohio, but from reading the message boards, I ran across one fellow who said that he knows of many, many Ohioans who are having buyer's remorse with Obama, big time. Lots of people who voted for him in 08 who are furious with him now. I have no way of knowing that firsthand; simply grapevine talk. But it does make one wonder. You all are right, that Romney MUST carry Ohio - the ultimate prize of the Midwest.

Bobtn, I would have to agree with the others that Michigan is a long shot for MR, but yes, for the reasons you mentioned, it might come into play. I can't believe voters there aren't taking Stabenow to task.

FargoBison, I agree that Romney's solid performance in SW Ohio, as well as suburban, well-educated areas in OH bodes well for him. He is capable of putting that voting bloc in play, one that Obama won in 2008.
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Old 03-07-2012, 10:29 PM
 
Location: NJ
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Classy Southerner, The reality is, even if MR cannot pull MI away, if he makes BO expend more resources (big one is time) than in 08, that means less time for other swing states, like Ohio or Pa. I worked in some local and statewide campaigns in my home state decades ago, and the answer to "Who will win (at any level)" is often visible in who is spending less time defending their strong base. So winning the governships in many states in 2010 in regions previously Democratic sets up a period where the Democrats cannot take regions for granted they once did. That's an automatic win, no matter what.
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Old 03-07-2012, 10:36 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,842,430 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb View Post
His stance on the auto bailout is going to make Michigan impossible. He might get Pennsylvania -- he will probably get New Hampshire. I agree with the poster who thinks he's going to get Indiana too. I think Obama keeps Ohio.

Polling showed that the auto bailout was not seen as all that favorable for a large percentage of people in MI.
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Old 03-07-2012, 10:40 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,013,607 times
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My ex corps regional hq is in Mi, and I knew from being up there more time they I wished to be, plus dealing with them, in some ways, Mi IMO has the 2 states in one NY does , and several others. NY upstate is conservative, with NYC very liberal. Michigans burbs, especially once one gets past working in Detroit, are 180 degrees politically from the Detroit/Flint/UAW mindset.

PS, Virginia has also become 2 states in one, with Northern Va much more liberal than Southern Va.

The more states split, and the lower the proportion of their residents in their former power bases, the more we will see solid red or blue states become perennial swing states. Is MI there yet-don't know, but it will be shortly, if not now.
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Old 03-07-2012, 10:43 PM
 
160 posts, read 214,068 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
Polling showed that the auto bailout was not seen as all that favorable for a large percentage of people in MI.
That's not true.

Attack against Romney on auto bailout moves beyond Michigan - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

Quote:
Polls show voters in Michigan approve of the bailout. In a recent NBC/ Marist poll from Michigan, 63 percent of registered voters said the bailout was a good idea.
"Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" = no chance in hell that Romney gets Michigan. Additionally, Michigan's unemployment has fallen five points since the auto bailout was put into effect and has saved by most accounts over a million jobs.
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Old 03-07-2012, 10:46 PM
 
12,050 posts, read 11,107,314 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
Polling showed that the auto bailout was not seen as all that favorable for a large percentage of people in MI.
A Republican could take Michigan, but Romney's not the one. There is no way he's going to get it with his remarks about letting Detroit fail.
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Old 03-07-2012, 10:47 PM
 
160 posts, read 214,068 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
My ex corps regional hq is in Mi, and I knew from being up there more time they I wished to be, plus dealing with them, in some ways, Mi IMO has the 2 states in one NY does , and several others. NY upstate is conservative, with NYC very liberal. Michigans burbs, especially once one gets past working in Detroit, are 180 degrees politically from the Detroit/Flint/UAW mindset.

PS, Virginia has also become 2 states in one, with Northern Va much more liberal than Southern Va.

The more states split, and the lower the proportion of their residents in their former power bases, the more we will see solid red or blue states become perennial swing states. Is MI there yet-don't know, but it will be shortly, if not now.
While rural Michigan is much more conservative than metropolitan Detroit...nobody lives out there. Oakland County - Detroit's relatively wealthy suburb to the north that houses a lot of auto white collar folks - went for Obama over McCain 56-42.

Oakland - Election Results
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