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Old 03-08-2012, 01:22 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,849,239 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
I don't see Romney winning the suburbs in Ohio or my state, either. In my state he won the counties where Nashville and Brentwood (wealthy) are located and he won Loudon County and came close in Knox County (city of Knoxville is located). The latter two are loaded with transplants from the northeast and from Florida (they probably originated in the northeast).

Frankly, I'm tired of playing second fiddle to big cities and the candidates that pander to them and their urban problems. North Carolina is never coming back. It's full of northeasterners and halfbacks from Florida (moved from the northeast to Florida and then moved halfway back to NC). They aren't just in the I-95 corridor, either. Western North Carolina is full of people from large northern cities.


Romney barely campaigned in TN and he still gave Santorum a good run for it. If he had actually campaigned there earlier he could have won it. There are not enough 'big cities' in TN for Romney to have only pulled votes in those areas and gotten as much of the vote as he did. He got a good percentage of votes from the most rural areas of TN actually.
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Old 03-08-2012, 03:07 PM
 
Location: NC
10,005 posts, read 9,001,546 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FargoBison View Post
Why can't he carry the suburbs? He dominated them in Ohio, Romney appeals to suburban voters. Suburban voters care more about the economy and less about social issues and what religion the guy running for office is. Suburban voters are what swing elections and they have been Romney's bread and butter for the entire primary.

Based on what you are saying Romney should be a much stronger candidate in NC for the general.
I seriously doubt that. The way Republicans win in North Carolina is by appealing to socially conservative, but economically populist Democrats in the eastern part of the state. That was how Jesse Helms won and that is how Bush won. I seriously doubt Romney can do that effectively. In fact I would not surprise me to see Romney lose places like Lenoir county and that offsetting any hypothetical gains he might get in the suburbs.

If anything I would argue Rick Santorum probably has a better shot in NC then Romney.

Last edited by Randomstudent; 03-08-2012 at 03:20 PM..
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Old 03-08-2012, 03:28 PM
 
Location: NC
10,005 posts, read 9,001,546 times
Reputation: 3073
Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
I don't see Romney winning the suburbs in Ohio or my state, either. In my state he won the counties where Nashville and Brentwood (wealthy) are located and he won Loudon County and came close in Knox County (city of Knoxville is located). The latter two are loaded with transplants from the northeast and from Florida (they probably originated in the northeast).

Frankly, I'm tired of playing second fiddle to big cities and the candidates that pander to them and their urban problems. North Carolina is never coming back. It's full of northeasterners and halfbacks from Florida (moved from the northeast to Florida and then moved halfway back to NC). They aren't just in the I-95 corridor, either. Western North Carolina is full of people from large northern cities.
There are not many transplants in NC on the I-95 corridor, they are mostly further west on 40 and 85.
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Old 03-08-2012, 06:49 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 921,566 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomstudent View Post
I seriously doubt that. The way Republicans win in North Carolina is by appealing to socially conservative, but economically populist Democrats in the eastern part of the state. That was how Jesse Helms won and that is how Bush won. I seriously doubt Romney can do that effectively. In fact I would not surprise me to see Romney lose places like Lenoir county and that offsetting any hypothetical gains he might get in the suburbs.

If anything I would argue Rick Santorum probably has a better shot in NC then Romney.
Don't you think NC has changed considerably since the Helms days? The reason Republicans win NC is because, on a national level, it is a Republican state (I realize that may not be the case in terms of voter registration and local politics, but that's how it is for many southern states). I know their population has exploded because of migration from other states, especially in the metropolitan areas. I mean you live there, so I won't get up on my soapbox and start telling you about what life is like where you live.
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Old 03-08-2012, 09:32 PM
 
Location: NC
10,005 posts, read 9,001,546 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
Don't you think NC has changed considerably since the Helms days? The reason Republicans win NC is because, on a national level, it is a Republican state (I realize that may not be the case in terms of voter registration and local politics, but that's how it is for many southern states). I know their population has exploded because of migration from other states, especially in the metropolitan areas. I mean you live there, so I won't get up on my soapbox and start telling you about what life is like where you live.
Helms' days were not terribly long ago, he only retired in 2002, and while the state has changed Eastern NC really hasn't changed all that much except for Greenville and some coastal areas, there is population growth in the state's cities and that is important, but if a GOPer cannot perform well enough in Eastern NC they will lose Bev Perdue demonstrated that against McCrory and that is what happened with Elizabeth Dole. John McCain lost ground there as well and I think Mitt could possibly perform even worse. If that happens it will quickly erase any advantage he might get around Raleigh and Charlotte.

Last edited by Randomstudent; 03-08-2012 at 09:44 PM..
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Old 03-09-2012, 07:16 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
34,610 posts, read 33,607,038 times
Reputation: 51729
Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
You voted for Rick Perry and he is not even in the race??? So who do you think can beat Obama?
Yes, I did and his delegates, too, although I had a few leftover to fill and gave them to Paul. I wanted my protest vote counted. Apparently, I wasn't the only one in Tennessee to do that.


Michele Bachmann 1,874
Jon Huntsman 1,221
Gary Johnson 565
Rick Perry 1,940
Charles "Buddy" Roemer 876

That's 6,476 people who went out of their way to make a trip to the polls on Primary day to say "none of the above."

And the answer to your second question is "All of the Above."
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Old 03-15-2012, 04:46 AM
 
2,402 posts, read 3,572,049 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wxjay View Post
Didn't Newt proclaim on Tuesday that he was fighting in Kansas?

I concur with Posts #2 and 3. Anyone who thinks that Romney not winning the rural counties in Ohio or even TN means that Obama will come in and win those is just plain faulty logic. If Santorum (or Gingrich) was the 'true conservative' and truly is the one to challenge Obama, then they would have no trouble taking Cleveland or Atlanta (which Gingrich lost to Romney) or other metropolitan areas.
Gingrich defeated Romney in metro Atlanta. Romney simply won Fulton county, where the actual city is located, as well as Dekalb County. Gingrich won the other 15 urbanized suburban counties, including Cobb and Gwinnett, two heavily populated counties with roughly equal the population of Fulton & Dekalb.
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Old 03-15-2012, 04:48 AM
 
2,402 posts, read 3,572,049 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomstudent View Post
There are not many transplants in NC on the I-95 corridor, they are mostly further west on 40 and 85.
The transplant population of North Carolina is overstated. Most of them are in either the Raleigh-Durham area or the Charlotte area. Even then, the native southern population is far higher than the transplant population. The Republican candidate will win North Carolina. I don't even think that it will be close this year.
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Old 03-15-2012, 04:51 AM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
22,243 posts, read 15,278,409 times
Reputation: 4583
As long as Newt has a sugar daddy to pay all the bills, he will keep going. Each DVD he sells in the process, hey, that's personal profit. Go Newt, show America how "enterprising" you are.
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Old 03-15-2012, 06:27 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
34,610 posts, read 33,607,038 times
Reputation: 51729
Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
Romney barely campaigned in TN and he still gave Santorum a good run for it. If he had actually campaigned there earlier he could have won it. There are not enough 'big cities' in TN for Romney to have only pulled votes in those areas and gotten as much of the vote as he did. He got a good percentage of votes from the most rural areas of TN actually.
No, he wouldn't. Tennessee voted for Huckabee in 2008 and McCain was a close second. I know. I voted for Romney in 2008. Everybody who was voting for Romney came out to vote in the 2012 primary. My state lets Democrats vote in the Republican primary. They just have to pick one. They voted for Romney. I judge by Memphis.
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