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The first thing you notice is Gingrich carried zero counties and his total count was less than half of Santorum's so not even close.
The second thing you notice is Romney can't carry anything but urban areas. Who are those urban areas going to vote for in November if it's Romney vs Obama? This is the state everyone is telling us is so important and not only did Romney squeak by with a win (37.9%) versus Santorum (37.1%) but he won only in the places in Ohio expected to go for Obama in November.
Santorum really should be pressing Gingrich to get out of the race. Seriously, like Santorum or not, Gingrich is keeping Santorum from beating Romney but if Santorum dropped out, I still don't think Gingrich could beat Romney.
I have no dog in this primary hunt. I voted for Rick Perry. But I don't think Romney can beat Obama because where he is winning in the Republican primary is Obama urban territory and I want to beat Obama.
The second thing you notice is Romney can't carry anything but urban areas. Who are those urban areas going to vote for in November if it's Romney vs Obama? This is the state everyone is telling us is so important and not only did Romney squeak by with a win (37.9%) versus Santorum (37.1%) but he won only in the places in Ohio expected to go for Obama in November.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC
I have no dog in this primary hunt. I voted for Rick Perry. But I don't think Romney can beat Obama because where he is winning in the Republican primary is Obama urban territory and I want to beat Obama.
Any Republican will win the rural counties in November. The fact that he's winning urban and suburban counties shows that he is much stronger than Santorum against Obama. A very solid majority of Americans live in urban and suburban areas. Republicans have to do well in them to have any chance of winning elections. Inner cities are usually deep blue, but whoever wins suburbs (and suburban areas within large cities) is usually who wins elections.
In Ohio specifically, look at Hamilton County (Cincinnati). It went for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008. Who could do better in that county in November? Romney or Santorum?
Upper middle class suburban, college educated voters are the true "swing" bloc. Who has a better chance with those voters in November? Romney or Santorum?
Any Republican will win the rural counties in November. The fact that he's winning urban and suburban counties shows that he is much stronger than Santorum against Obama.
Romney has won plenty of red counties in many states. Not even close to all urban/suburban counties are deep blue. In Ohio specifically, look at Hamilton County (Cincinnati). It went for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008. Who could do better in that county in November? Romney or Santorum?
Upper middle class suburban, college educated voters are the true "swing" bloc. Who has a better chance with those voters in November? Romney or Santorum?
Thank you! The rural counties will not go Obama no matter what anyone says. I want a candidate that can appeal to suburban families - that's where elections are won and lost in modern times. Keep in mind Romney's strength is in suburbs. Certainly he does well in cities, but there aren't many Republicans in cities. His strength comes in the suburbs. I don't want a candiate that only appeals to small town folks when most Americans live in the suburbs. I don't want a candidate that appeals to urban elites when most Americans live in the suburbs. Romney wins the suburbs. I can tell you from personal experience that Clermont County, Ohio, home of "Mean Jean" is an extremely conservative suburban area, not urban, right outside Cincinnati. And it went Romney.
Republicans will win rural areas. We need a candidate who can compete in Fairfax and Loudoun counties if we want Virginia back. We need a candidate who can compete in in Bucks County and suburban Philly if we want a shot at Pennsylvania. We need a candidate who can compete in the increasingly metropolitan suburbs of Raleigh and Charlotte if we want to keep North Carolina safe this time. We need a candidate who can win more than the panhandle of Florida, that will go for us anyway. We need a candidate who will have a strong showing in Ohio where the people actually live - right outside Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. There is only one candidate that has a shot at delivering these places, and his name isn't Rick Santorum
Upper middle class suburban, college educated voters are the true "swing" bloc. Who has a better chance with those voters in November? Romney or Santorum?
Under 40, they are not. They may not be Democrats, but they are by and large extremely anti-Republican.
And this includes many conservatives in this group.
What Remaining States Could Gingrich Win and Romney's Ohio Victory Doesn't Look Like Much
If Newt bows out soon, Santorum will get nearly all of the anti-Romney vote. And since Willard "wins" with less than 50% on a regular basis, Santorum could quickly close the gap.
Thank you! The rural counties will not go Obama no matter what anyone says. I want a candidate that can appeal to suburban families - that's where elections are won and lost in modern times. Keep in mind Romney's strength is in suburbs. Certainly he does well in cities, but there aren't many Republicans in cities. His strength comes in the suburbs. I don't want a candiate that only appeals to small town folks when most Americans live in the suburbs. I don't want a candidate that appeals to urban elites when most Americans live in the suburbs. Romney wins the suburbs. I can tell you from personal experience that Clermont County, Ohio, home of "Mean Jean" is an extremely conservative suburban area, not urban, right outside Cincinnati. And it went Romney.
Republicans will win rural areas. We need a candidate who can compete in Fairfax and Loudoun counties if we want Virginia back. We need a candidate who can compete in in Bucks County and suburban Philly if we want a shot at Pennsylvania. We need a candidate who can compete in the increasingly metropolitan suburbs of Raleigh and Charlotte if we want to keep North Carolina safe this time. We need a candidate who can win more than the panhandle of Florida, that will go for us anyway. We need a candidate who will have a strong showing in Ohio where the people actually live - right outside Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. There is only one candidate that has a shot at delivering these places, and his name isn't Rick Santorum
I don't see Romney winning the suburbs in Ohio or my state, either. In my state he won the counties where Nashville and Brentwood (wealthy) are located and he won Loudon County and came close in Knox County (city of Knoxville is located). The latter two are loaded with transplants from the northeast and from Florida (they probably originated in the northeast).
Frankly, I'm tired of playing second fiddle to big cities and the candidates that pander to them and their urban problems. North Carolina is never coming back. It's full of northeasterners and halfbacks from Florida (moved from the northeast to Florida and then moved halfway back to NC). They aren't just in the I-95 corridor, either. Western North Carolina is full of people from large northern cities.
Didn't Newt proclaim on Tuesday that he was fighting in Kansas?
I concur with Posts #2 and 3. Anyone who thinks that Romney not winning the rural counties in Ohio or even TN means that Obama will come in and win those is just plain faulty logic. If Santorum (or Gingrich) was the 'true conservative' and truly is the one to challenge Obama, then they would have no trouble taking Cleveland or Atlanta (which Gingrich lost to Romney) or other metropolitan areas.
At this point, beating Mitt Romney is no longer a matter of winning states. Most of what's left is proportional so Willard will continue to add to his delegate tally. He's ahead by about 250 delegates -- more delegates than any other candidate has in total. It may already be mathematically impossible to beat him.
It's still possible, but somebody would have to win New York, California and Texas by a big enough margin to prevent Willard from gaining any delegates. Texas is the only of the three I can see going that way, and even that one is extremely unlikely. Considering that winner take all Utah is a virtual gimme for Mitt:
Santorum has to close a 300 delegate gap.
Gingrich has to close a 350 delegate gap.
Ron Paul has to close a 400 delegate gap.
Each would have to pull off that comeback while Romney continues to gain delegates from proportional states. And they absolutely couldn't afford for Mitt to win any more states from this point on. I just don't think it can be done.
The first thing you notice is Gingrich carried zero counties and his total count was less than half of Santorum's so not even close.
The second thing you notice is Romney can't carry anything but urban areas. Who are those urban areas going to vote for in November if it's Romney vs Obama? This is the state everyone is telling us is so important and not only did Romney squeak by with a win (37.9%) versus Santorum (37.1%) but he won only in the places in Ohio expected to go for Obama in November.
Santorum really should be pressing Gingrich to get out of the race. Seriously, like Santorum or not, Gingrich is keeping Santorum from beating Romney but if Santorum dropped out, I still don't think Gingrich could beat Romney.
I have no dog in this primary hunt. I voted for Rick Perry. But I don't think Romney can beat Obama because where he is winning in the Republican primary is Obama urban territory and I want to beat Obama.
You voted for Rick Perry and he is not even in the race??? So who do you think can beat Obama?
I don't see Romney winning the suburbs in Ohio or my state, either. In my state he won the counties where Nashville and Brentwood (wealthy) are located and he won Loudon County and came close in Knox County (city of Knoxville is located). The latter two are loaded with transplants from the northeast and from Florida (they probably originated in the northeast).
Frankly, I'm tired of playing second fiddle to big cities and the candidates that pander to them and their urban problems. North Carolina is never coming back. It's full of northeasterners and halfbacks from Florida (moved from the northeast to Florida and then moved halfway back to NC). They aren't just in the I-95 corridor, either. Western North Carolina is full of people from large northern cities.
Why can't he carry the suburbs? He dominated them in Ohio, Romney appeals to suburban voters. Suburban voters care more about the economy and less about social issues and what religion the guy running for office is. Suburban voters are what swing elections and they have been Romney's bread and butter for the entire primary.
Based on what you are saying Romney should be a much stronger candidate in NC for the general.
Last edited by FargoBison; 03-08-2012 at 01:29 PM..
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What Remaining States Could Gingrich Win and Romney's Ohio Victory Doesn't Look Like Much
