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Old 03-10-2012, 07:10 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,868 posts, read 22,727,547 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nicet4 View Post
I wonder how Obama will be doing in August when gasoline is $5.50/gallon?

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™



Well to consider too is the incumbent rule where most undecided voters go with the challenger. This rule isn't written in stone but oftentimes that is what happens.

RealClearPolitics - How to Understand the Incumbent Rule
Good luck with that.
Rasmussens' record lately is horrid.

"...The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued..."


Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

No single polling company is a reliable source - that's why I always refer to the "poll of polls" - which is a compilation of ALL major polling firms (and THAT doesn't look good for the GOP at all).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...andidates.html

Ken

Last edited by LordBalfor; 03-10-2012 at 07:32 PM..
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Old 03-11-2012, 11:04 AM
 
Location: #
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Rasmussen is an outlier.

Or is it "outliar"?
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Old 03-11-2012, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Texas
14,969 posts, read 14,181,757 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Good luck with that.
Rasmussens' record lately is horrid.

"...The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued..."


Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com
Quote:
Originally Posted by crbcrbrgv View Post
Rasmussen is an outlier.

Or is it "outliar"?
Obamas opens up 10 point lead on romney

Funny how you libs were touting Rasmussen while ignoring a USA Today/Gallup poll in this thread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
No single polling company is a reliable source - that's why I always refer to the "poll of polls" - which is a compilation of ALL major polling firms (and THAT doesn't look good for the GOP at all).

RealClearPolitics - President Obama vs. Republican Candidates

Ken
Obama's lead over Romney is only 3.6 points in the poll average - that's not exactly huge. And this is when the GOP is at its lowest point. The GOP infighting will eventually stop.

Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 03-11-2012 at 12:15 PM..
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Old 03-11-2012, 12:11 PM
 
Location: Texas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321 View Post
Not a chance. You have to look at the state by state polls, then factor them into the electoral college. As these polls stand today, Obama will win by a significant margin (327 to 212). The 2012 election will be identical to the 2008 election, with the exception of Indiana turning red again. Obama will win.
The election is eight months away. The polls will fluctuate a lot over the course of the next eight months and state by state general election polling is few and far between at this point. However, I'm curious as to where you're getting this info from. Are you simply basing this off the most recent poll conducted in each state (or a specific poll from each state that tells you what you want to hear)?

Anyway, take a look at this poll, which included polling "swing states" specifically:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...ama/53260222/1

Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 03-11-2012 at 12:45 PM..
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Old 03-11-2012, 12:12 PM
 
Location: North Carolina
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no
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Old 03-11-2012, 12:48 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, MD
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I guessed accurately this was a Rasmussen poll before I even opened the thread. Why do people still cite this RNC push poll as if it were a serious legitimate polling outfit?
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Old 03-11-2012, 01:14 PM
 
Location: NC
10,005 posts, read 8,996,488 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post
Obamas opens up 10 point lead on romney

Funny how you libs were touting Rasmussen while ignoring a USA Today/Gallup poll in this thread.
I don't think any libs were touting Rasmussen. In fact here is the second quote from that thread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TempesT68 View Post
Damn, this is the biggest lead over Willard that I'm aware of since they have had the polls up for it. Also coming from the right wing Rasmussen, it's more like a 20 point lead
The fact is I think both Gallup and Rasmussen are horrible. PPP and SUSA are the polls that I think tend to be they best and Gallup and Rasmussen are the worst.

No surprise they are the two radical outliers on RCP

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

If you want an example of why PPP is just better take a look at the Tennessee primary. While both polls were slightly with regards to Santorum and Romney Rasmussen drastically understated Gingrich while PPP was only off by about the same amount they were with Santorum. The polls were taken the same day. The fact is Rasmussen just tends to get some things radically wrong and it does this often.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-2043.html

Here is another in Ohio where PPP got it essentially right while Rasmussen drastically underestimated the support for everyone but Paul which it overstated by a fair amount

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-1600.html

In summary Rasmussen is just a bad poll.

Last edited by Randomstudent; 03-11-2012 at 01:23 PM..
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Old 03-11-2012, 04:15 PM
 
Location: #
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That's not true. I always say take Rasmussen with about a gallon of salt, not a grain and you know it.
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Old 03-11-2012, 09:00 PM
 
Location: Texas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomstudent View Post
I don't think any libs were touting Rasmussen. In fact here is the second quote from that thread.
That left-wing poster you quoted constantly calls Republicans fascists and defends Democrats no matter what they do.

That poster suggested that polls other than Rasmussen would have Romney at 20 points ahead of Obama. Funny...I haven't seen any polls where Obama has been anywhere close to 20 points ahead of Romney and the Gallup poll where Romney and Obama were tied was conducted around the same time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomstudent View Post
The fact is I think both Gallup and Rasmussen are horrible. PPP and SUSA are the polls that I think tend to be they best and Gallup and Rasmussen are the worst.

No surprise they are the two radical outliers on RCP

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
The Gallup poll was a radical outlier? Hahaha. The average has Obama leading Romney by 3.6 points. They were tied in the Gallup poll, meaning there's a 3.6 point difference between Gallup and the average. Obama led Romney by 10 points in the Politico/George Washington University Battleground poll, which is 6.4 points ahead of the average. Yet of course you don't consider it an outlier because of your bias.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomstudent View Post
If you want an example of why PPP is just better take a look at the Tennessee primary. While both polls were slightly with regards to Santorum and Romney Rasmussen drastically understated Gingrich while PPP was only off by about the same amount they were with Santorum. The polls were taken the same day. The fact is Rasmussen just tends to get some things radically wrong and it does this often.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Tennessee Republican Presidential Primary

Here is another in Ohio where PPP got it essentially right while Rasmussen drastically underestimated the support for everyone but Paul which it overstated by a fair amount

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio Republican Presidential Primary

In summary Rasmussen is just a bad poll.
But I'm sure you didn't consider Rasmussen an outlier or a bad poll when it had Obama leading Romney by 10 points right?

Anyway, I agree that Rasmussen isn't the best poll. But other polls frequently mess up too. And Rasmussen has been very accurate sometimes too. That's why I pay more attention to the average of all the polls.

That being said, I don't see a lot of evidence that Politico/GWU is a good poll either (the one that you say isn't an outlier because you like what it has to say). It's one that I'm not too familiar with. I googled it but wasn't able to find out very much about it.
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Old 03-11-2012, 09:36 PM
 
Location: NC
10,005 posts, read 8,996,488 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok View Post

That being said, I don't see a lot of evidence that Politico/GWU is a good poll either (the one that you say isn't an outlier because you like what it has to say). It's one that I'm not too familiar with. I googled it but wasn't able to find out very much about it.
Politico GWU is potentially an outlier as well. With that said of all the polls on RCP Gallup and Rasmussen are substantially less friendly to Obama and always have been, with a few blips, been the most unfriendly to Obama. As I said, the only 2 I really would put stock in are PPP and Survey USA.
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