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On Friday, Mitt Romney got off to an awkward start by calling a campaign in the South "an away game." But at a tractor factory north of Birmingham, Ala., he showed he knows how to work the South.
Last week, I wrote a column that showed Barack Obama had jumped into a tie with the Republican nominees in Georgia, polling ahead of where he was in 2008. A lot of that tepid support for the GOP was the result of Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul ignoring the South in general, and Georgia in particular.
So the next day, I got an email from the Romney campaign. "Would you like to attend a Romney speaking event in Birmingham?" Now that's a 2 1/2-hour drive from LaGrange, Ga., but I said yes. A student even volunteered to come along; he had never been to such an event.
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About half the crowd left after the final applause, figuring he'd be whisked back to Birmingham's Shuttlesworth Airport to depart the state. Instead, he did something I never expected. He worked the crowd, shaking hands, signing autographs, smiling, holding babies.
Now that's what we would expect from a Bill Clinton or a George W. Bush, but not a Mitt Romney. The word on him from Southerners in 2008 was he doesn't like to shake hands or otherwise meet people who aren't in a country club. He showed he was nothing like that, acting more like a Southern politician.
It's still going to be a tight race. Polls show the state is going down to the wire. Capital Survey Research shows him up a few points, and Alabama State University has him trailing Santorum by a few. Rasmussen Reports has Gingrich winning by a nose.
But if Romney can win in this state seen as the second-most conservative one behind Mississippi, it would demonstrate he could beat Santorum in the epicenter of social conservatism. Other Republicans would demand the remaining candidates concede the race. It would be the knockout blow Romney sought but didn't get on Super Tuesday. And he made the best possible case for the Alabama vote in that tractor factory, possibly overcoming his earlier actions and words.
If Romney wins Alabama and Mississippi it is really over. That won't be easy, but if Romney does it, it is over. The republican money will flow to Romney and not Santorum. The pressure to concede on Santorum will be great. Newt will be a non-figure and Paul's crowd will scream that they are in 3rd place now if Santorum gets out. But, the race will be over.
Gingrich winning by 1 point will not mean anything - Romney could still end up with more delegates depending on how the votes turn out. But if Romney wins either or both southern primaries tomorrow, it destroys the Gingrich strategy and really hurts Santorum.
It's true -- Romney supporters in Alabama think Obama is a Muslim and reject evolution by slightly less embarrassing margins than do Santorum voters ...
Gingrich winning by 1 point will not mean anything - Romney could still end up with more delegates depending on how the votes turn out. But if Romney wins either or both southern primaries tomorrow, it destroys the Gingrich strategy and really hurts Santorum.
Looking at the districts, if the winner doesn't get the most delegates it will likely happen to Romney rather than Newt or Santorum. Romney could narrowly win the state with Santorum and Newt winning more districts. In a margin as close as the PPP poll, its entirely possible Mit wins one or two districts and win based off his margins in the 5th and only get a handful of the remaining CD delegates.
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