Could Massachusetts swing Republican this Year? (votes, democrat, Republicans, liberal)
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Obama has led in the vast majority of the PA polling
I know. That's why I said "possibly." I don't think it's especially likely that Romney will win PA. I just think it's within the realm of possibilities.
Who cares about polling until after the conventions? So much can change, I do realize it won't change MA but a state like PA could definitely be put into play.
I pretty much agree, but I do think New Hampshire is possible and I think PA is also a possibility.
I absolutely think NH is a possibility. I'm skeptical about PA. They always say it's a swing state, but it always seems to swing the same direction, no matter which way the political wind blows. Although the 2010 state and local elections in PA are promising, and suggest they could be moving more in our direction. The same can be said for New Hampshire, for that matter. Heck, so is MA according to the OP, but I say we've got a ways to go with that one. Although, Reagan won there in 84!
Ma is doing fairly well economically (beating its neighbors in many ways in that measure), and states that exceed the nation in that regard tend to be "stay the course" terroritory.
But I do think MR can force BO to spend more time there, and that means less for swing states. Decades back, I was told as a teen (political science class project made us work on campaigns), that one can measure how well they are doing by who is playing defense defending areas that should be safe for them. For the reason of resource limitations.
I absolutely think NH is a possibility. I'm skeptical about PA. They always say it's a swing state, but it always seems to swing the same direction, no matter which way the political wind blows. Although the 2010 state and local elections in PA are promising, and suggest they could be moving more in our direction. The same can be said for New Hampshire, for that matter. Heck, so is MA according to the OP, but I say we've got a ways to go with that one. Although, Reagan won there in 84!
2010 was a very Republican year, I wouldn't expect the same results in 2012 in PA & NH especially with the higher turnouts that encompass a Presidential year.
I think its going to be very difficult for Romney to win either PA or NH. The Primary has simply pushed him too far to the right to really win either state outside of having a huge turnout advantage (which is not going to happen).
In PA its especially difficult due to the Philly suburbs. Elections are pretty much won and lost in suburban Philly. The previous version of Romney would have likely done quite well there (likely would not have won, but done well enough that the margins there would not sink him). However, the new version of Mitt (as he has moved considerably to the right) will take a beating there. Granted he would likely do better there than Santroum, but he doesn't have a chance in hell of winning the state he lost his Senate seat by 18 points in.
Ma is doing fairly well economically (beating its neighbors in many ways in that measure), and states that exceed the nation in that regard tend to be "stay the course" terroritory.
But I do think MR can force BO to spend more time there, and that means less for swing states. Decades back, I was told as a teen (political science class project made us work on campaigns), that one can measure how well they are doing by who is playing defense defending areas that should be safe for them. For the reason of resource limitations.
I have seen a lot of defensive moves by the Obama campaign already as far as targeting certain states they wouldn't have worried about last time around. I have also noticed them targeting certain voting blocks they won last time around, like women, which they know Romney is doing well with consistently. The Democrats know that if it's Romney they have their work cut out for them.
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