U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 03-12-2012, 11:48 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,347 posts, read 920,146 times
Reputation: 235

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
2010 was a very Republican year, I wouldn't expect the same results in 2012 in PA & NH especially with the higher turnouts that encompass a Presidential year.

I think its going to be very difficult for Romney to win either PA or NH. The Primary has simply pushed him too far to the right to really win either state outside of having a huge turnout advantage (which is not going to happen).

In PA its especially difficult due to the Philly suburbs. Elections are pretty much won and lost in suburban Philly. The previous version of Romney would have likely done quite well there (likely would not have won, but done well enough that the margins there would not sink him). However, the new version of Mitt (as he has moved considerably to the right) will take a beating there. Granted he would likely do better there than Santroum, but he doesn't have a chance in hell of winning the state he lost his Senate seat by 18 points in.
Well, we shall see. These same voters, according to recent polls, also view Obama as too far to the left (59% View Obama As More Liberal Than They Are - Rasmussen Reports™). In the case of NH, they elected some pretty staunch conservatives in 2010, and their legislature is overwhelmingly GOP dominated. I mean, we're talking super-super-majorities. 4/5 majority in the senate, 3/4 majority in the House (New Hampshire General Court - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) I think it takes a little more to explain that than just "a good year for Republicans."
Throughout this campaign Mitt Romney has shown suburban strength. I do agree with you that his numbers among suburban independents need to go back to where they were a few months ago if he wants to do well in PA, or even VA and other states with large suburban areas. However, Romney is no more conservative now than he was in November. His decline in popularity is more due to attacks from his GOP rivals and not a political shift. Once Romney is in the general, I think he will be more rhetorically comfortable with independent crowds (Honestly, this whole GOP fight is about Mitt Romney having more moderate rhetoric, even while being a stronger conservative than his rivals. At the very least, he is equally conservative. Rhetoric creates perception, and perception creates reality). Once he is able to campaign on the same ideas in the general, he will be able to do so in the less incendiary tone he is certainly more comfortable campaigning with. There will still be attacks on him, but there will also be attacks on Obama. Romney will go up with independents, Obama will go down. It will be a close race.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 03-13-2012, 03:10 AM
 
16,657 posts, read 9,038,797 times
Reputation: 6733
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
His running mate did not run in the GOP Primary and also dropped out prior to Election Day and endorsed Baker...
I didn't say his running mate ran in the GOP primary, I said that his running mate and staffers were GOP. Do you disagree?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2012, 03:13 AM
 
16,657 posts, read 9,038,797 times
Reputation: 6733
Quote:
Originally Posted by nep321 View Post
Absolutely not. MA is one of the deepest blue states in the country, if not the bluest. It was the first state to legalize gay marriage and have some form of universal healthcare. Even today's general election polls show that MA voters would overwhelmingly support Obama over the Republican candidate. Not a single state in the Northeast will turn red, even in the 2012 election. The Northeast is 100% blue.
Don't forget Massachusetts is set to vote back in Red Senator Brown. It isn't completely blue.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2012, 06:15 AM
 
Location: Massachusetts
7,557 posts, read 11,389,773 times
Reputation: 6020
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
I'm about as big a Romney fan as there is, and I can tell you I don't see any way he will win Massachusetts. Scott Brown will though!
True. Romney stands a good chance to take New Hampshire. I think Maine splits their electoral votes.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2012, 09:36 AM
 
9,325 posts, read 9,454,704 times
Reputation: 5724
However, the state could have been turning blue again during those elections because this

is the Brown Vs. Coakley Map, which is overwelmingly Republican. I do reconize there is a difference between a statewide and a local election but this could show a lurch back towards Massachusetts "normal" between Feb 2010 and Nov. 2010.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2012, 12:09 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,968 posts, read 15,413,281 times
Reputation: 3945
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmsterp View Post
Well, we shall see. These same voters, according to recent polls, also view Obama as too far to the left (59% View Obama As More Liberal Than They Are - Rasmussen Reports™). In the case of NH, they elected some pretty staunch conservatives in 2010, and their legislature is overwhelmingly GOP dominated. I mean, we're talking super-super-majorities. 4/5 majority in the senate, 3/4 majority in the House (New Hampshire General Court - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) I think it takes a little more to explain that than just "a good year for Republicans."
Throughout this campaign Mitt Romney has shown suburban strength. I do agree with you that his numbers among suburban independents need to go back to where they were a few months ago if he wants to do well in PA, or even VA and other states with large suburban areas. However, Romney is no more conservative now than he was in November. His decline in popularity is more due to attacks from his GOP rivals and not a political shift. Once Romney is in the general, I think he will be more rhetorically comfortable with independent crowds (Honestly, this whole GOP fight is about Mitt Romney having more moderate rhetoric, even while being a stronger conservative than his rivals. At the very least, he is equally conservative. Rhetoric creates perception, and perception creates reality). Once he is able to campaign on the same ideas in the general, he will be able to do so in the less incendiary tone he is certainly more comfortable campaigning with. There will still be attacks on him, but there will also be attacks on Obama. Romney will go up with independents, Obama will go down. It will be a close race.
New Hampshire has straight party voting as an option an the down ballot races have the most impact on that especially in midterms. The last three midterms show rather strong swings in those races in NH. In 02 it went from a small GOP advantage to a strong one, swung wildly to the Dems in the bad GOP year of 06 and swung wildly again to the GOP in 2010.

As far as how Romney has done with suburban voters, of course he is doing well with them in the Primary considering the competition. He is certainly a better fit in Northern VA and suburban Philly than Newt and Rick. With that being said he was shifted to the right considerably over the years. The voters who weren't paying attention a few months ago are paying more attention now and his numbers have sank with those in the middle as a result.

We saw a similar thing happen with McCain four years ago. He ran well to the right of where he was when he ran in 2000. As a result areas he would have had appeal in and would have previously done well or at least have been competive in he got drubbed. The same thing is in store for Romney in areas like Montgomery and Delaware Counties in PA, Fairfax and Loudon in NOVA, same with Henrico (suburban Richmond). The Primary has driven Romney so far right its going to make things very difficult for him in the areas of some of these states the GOP must do well or at least be competitive in to have a chance.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2012, 12:12 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,968 posts, read 15,413,281 times
Reputation: 3945
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
I didn't say his running mate ran in the GOP primary, I said that his running mate and staffers were GOP. Do you disagree?
Yes, but that is not what the post I was initially responding to stated, That post said someone who ran in the GOP Primary. Not only was that false, but Cahill was a former Democrat on top of that. The person on the top of the ticket is going to have more influence than a running mate who dropped out and endorsed his opponent.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2012, 12:14 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,968 posts, read 15,413,281 times
Reputation: 3945
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaseyB View Post
True. Romney stands a good chance to take New Hampshire. I think Maine splits their electoral votes.

Based of what?? The only polls out in Maine have Romney getting demolished.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2012, 12:30 PM
 
Location: Michigan
12,715 posts, read 11,560,902 times
Reputation: 4135
Massachusetts would not go Republican except in a 40- or 45-state landslide. Even George McGovern won Massachusetts.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 03-13-2012, 12:32 PM
 
9,325 posts, read 9,454,704 times
Reputation: 5724
Quote:
Originally Posted by djacques View Post
Massachusetts would not go Republican except in a 40- or 45-state landslide. Even George McGovern won Massachusetts.
and look how Nixon turned out, lol
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. | Please obey Forum Rules | Terms of Use and Privacy Policy

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top