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Old 03-17-2012, 08:50 AM
 
Location: Texas
26,632 posts, read 11,166,324 times
Reputation: 6110

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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
FiveThirtyEight: Why Illinois May be a 'Must Win' for Santorum - NYTimes.com


This is a good article that explains why it will be improbable for Santorum to get enough delegates to win...possible but not probable. More possible to get enough to block Romney from attaining the number to win, but still difficult and then with the impact of the Super Delegates...still not probable. Of course, anything can happen in politics. Romney really would have to have a huge scandal or really tank across the board.
The delegate count is incorrect. Another media hack who is uninformed on how things work. But he needed to write a story I guess.
Unless Newt drops, which I doubt since he hates Romney, no one will have enough delegates after the first round of voting. Then the fun begins as more delegates become unbound after each round of voting.
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Old 03-17-2012, 09:56 AM
 
16,709 posts, read 9,078,930 times
Reputation: 6758
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Romney is running out of islands, though. The RNC really stacked the deck for him and he still can't close.
Yes, Romney has won more states than everyone else combined because of islands. Try using your brain before you type.
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Old 03-17-2012, 11:16 AM
 
Location: Chicago
865 posts, read 572,547 times
Reputation: 270
Santorum isn't even on our local ballot, here in IL. How is he going to win, because I heard that this is the case for many precincts(maybe not all of them)? Write-ins aren't even allowed for a primary.
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Old 03-17-2012, 06:45 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,033,468 times
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Wrong, Ponderosa. The deck was stacked against a quick close, with California near the end this year. To have 40% of all required delegates already is ahead of the pace MR needs, as there are only a smattering of RS friendly states left, and a large amount super friendly to Romney.
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Old 03-18-2012, 10:29 AM
 
4,749 posts, read 3,600,892 times
Reputation: 3225
Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
FiveThirtyEight: Why Illinois May be a 'Must Win' for Santorum - NYTimes.com




This is a good article that explains why it will be improbable for Santorum to get enough delegates to win...possible but not probable. More possible to get enough to block Romney from attaining the number to win, but still difficult and then with the impact of the Super Delegates...still not probable. Of course, anything can happen in politics. Romney really would have to have a huge scandal or really tank across the board.
Like I say, Romney might win the delegates, but Santorum is the unofficial nominee of the conservatives. The GOP is screwed either way.
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Old 03-18-2012, 10:49 AM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,033,468 times
Reputation: 7282
Unbound delegates always end up following the delegate leader, not the 4th place candidate. Paul has gone into free fall, and he will not be able to pull out of it.
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Old 03-18-2012, 11:19 AM
 
Location: Texas
26,632 posts, read 11,166,324 times
Reputation: 6110
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
Unbound delegates always end up following the delegate leader
No they don't. It depends on the state and which round of voting.
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Old 03-18-2012, 05:10 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,677 posts, read 17,033,468 times
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LOL, LOveshiscountry, The desparation of the NOT Romney crowd is evident now, but futile.
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Old 03-18-2012, 05:17 PM
 
Location: Native Floridian, USA
4,904 posts, read 6,103,949 times
Reputation: 6109
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
Newt staying in hurts Romney. Newt's votes would be split between Romney and Santorum. So that Newt is taking delegates away from Romney who may or may not reach the magic # of 1144 delegates.
This was my take on Newt staying in. The Fox news crowd (Hannity) does not want Romney, he barely supresses his distaste for Romney, IMO, and "adores" Newt. It is hard for me to see why Repubs can put forth McCain and Dole as viable candidates and not be solidly behind Romney......makes me wonder.
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Old 03-18-2012, 07:40 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,850,756 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnnieA View Post
This was my take on Newt staying in. The Fox news crowd (Hannity) does not want Romney, he barely supresses his distaste for Romney, IMO, and "adores" Newt. It is hard for me to see why Repubs can put forth McCain and Dole as viable candidates and not be solidly behind Romney......makes me wonder.


Makes me wonder also. It has all been very perplexing why the same people in the public eye (Rush, Hannity, Laura ingraham) supported Romney last time around and said he was the true conservative and such and this time seem to think so much differently of him. Mitt hasn't changed so it must all be a gimmick on their parts.
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