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Old 03-23-2012, 05:09 AM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
22,243 posts, read 15,264,019 times
Reputation: 4583

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Quote:
Originally Posted by North Beach Person View Post
Part of what Bob says is true, of course he forgets when he blamed Bush for high gas prices.

It doesn't matter whether statistics "show" the economy is getting "better", what matters is whether people think it's getting better. If they don't the votes will break toward Romney. Gas prices knocking on the $5/gal door will do the same thing ($5/gal gas will smother a recovery, also).

The type of thinking shown in this thread about a "landslide" is what I call "drinking your own bathwater" when I'm involved in campaigns.
I don't recall blaming Bush for gas prices, Wars, large part of tanking Economy, yes.
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Old 03-23-2012, 05:58 AM
 
Location: USA - midwest
5,945 posts, read 4,857,623 times
Reputation: 2606
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead View Post
Romney just cannot seem to get any traction, the economy is gaining steam, and Obama's War Chest is massive.

I am not one to count chickens, but everything I am seeing is looking like an Obama landslide.

Since Obama has done almost nothing to really start campaigning, I am laying this year's events and the likely outcome at the feet of the GOP.

Obama looks safe if the economy continues to pick up some steam. If it falters, he could lose. People are jittery over this "recovery" because it's very weak and could be derailed by the turmoil in Europe or a flare-up with Iran.
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Old 03-23-2012, 06:02 AM
 
Location: Wisconsin
7,215 posts, read 7,881,405 times
Reputation: 7740
The thing about gas prices is that while they will probably be higher during summer, they will probably start to decline again in the fall when demand goes back down.

I don't see how anyone can't see Obama beating Romney or Santorum, barring some major catastrophe. I think it might be a bit closer than the 2008 election, but Obama will still win comfortably.
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Old 03-23-2012, 06:22 AM
 
3,568 posts, read 3,269,702 times
Reputation: 1364
There are many factors, known and unknown at the moment, that will determine this election, as others have pointed out. But I think that the critical factor in any election is turnout. And turnout depends on enthusiasm. Once the primaries are over and the Republicans settle on a candidate they will have the edge in enthusiasm. The urgency to get rid of Obama is palpable. On the other hand the really dispirited are the Democrats. The half of the party that supported Hillary are going around and saying 'I told you so.' Oh, they'll vote for Obama but without much enthusiasm. Blacks, Latinos and young people also don't feel the "magic" this time around. Many will simply stay home. And then there are the independents who thought it would be cool to put the first black man in the White House. Having 'been there and done that' in 2008 many of those will feel free to vote for someone else this time around. The point is that the polls don't tell us very much about who will be voting in November.
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Old 03-23-2012, 06:28 AM
 
12,639 posts, read 7,290,996 times
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Yes, it will be a landslide - for Romney.
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Old 03-23-2012, 06:28 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
34,587 posts, read 33,575,550 times
Reputation: 51685
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead View Post
Romney just cannot seem to get any traction, the economy is gaining steam, and Obama's War Chest is massive.

I am not one to count chickens, but everything I am seeing is looking like an Obama landslide.

Since Obama has done almost nothing to really start campaigning, I am laying this year's events and the likely outcome at the feet of the GOP.
I haven't seen any "Anybody but Obama" polls...and Obama has been campaigning for the last year. He just doesn't campaign on his record.
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Old 03-23-2012, 07:11 AM
 
Location: NC
1,673 posts, read 1,526,609 times
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All I will say is I will put my laptop on city-data while I watch election returns in November, in preperation for some great meltdowns, no matter what happens.
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Old 03-23-2012, 07:16 AM
 
Location: #
9,605 posts, read 14,629,681 times
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Demographics will determine this election. I've been saying for quite some time that had the Republicans rallied around Romney from day one, he would have had a chance.

Due to the drawn out nomination process, the Republican party has been painted in a very negative light. The fact that Romney has the (R) next to his name is damaging. He knows this is true (think Etch-a-Sketch comment).

The Democrats have painted Republicans as anti-woman, anti-minority and anti-all sorts of things all while the GOP has willingly held the paintbrush with the Democrats. This will continue all the way through November.

Many have said Obama hasn't run on his record. There's no need to at this point and he very well may not need to at all. A continuation of the painting may be all that is necessary.
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Old 03-23-2012, 07:58 AM
 
507 posts, read 1,323,739 times
Reputation: 810
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimMe View Post
There are many factors, known and unknown at the moment, that will determine this election, as others have pointed out. But I think that the critical factor in any election is turnout. And turnout depends on enthusiasm. Once the primaries are over and the Republicans settle on a candidate they will have the edge in enthusiasm. The urgency to get rid of Obama is palpable. On the other hand the really dispirited are the Democrats. The half of the party that supported Hillary are going around and saying 'I told you so.' Oh, they'll vote for Obama but without much enthusiasm. Blacks, Latinos and young people also don't feel the "magic" this time around. Many will simply stay home. And then there are the independents who thought it would be cool to put the first black man in the White House. Having 'been there and done that' in 2008 many of those will feel free to vote for someone else this time around. The point is that the polls don't tell us very much about who will be voting in November.
LMAO

Are you psychic? Please tell me how you know how all these different groups "felt", especially the Independents who thought it would be "cool" to elect the first black president. BTDT. Maybe now it will be cool to vote in the first Mormon.

Hilarious.

Maybe you should stick to talking about how YOU feel, there is still plenty of "magic" and enthusiasm going around. Just ask the OWS crowds.
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Old 03-23-2012, 08:22 AM
 
4,749 posts, read 3,596,575 times
Reputation: 3224
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead View Post
Romney just cannot seem to get any traction, the economy is gaining steam, and Obama's War Chest is massive.

I am not one to count chickens, but everything I am seeing is looking like an Obama landslide.

Since Obama has done almost nothing to really start campaigning, I am laying this year's events and the likely outcome at the feet of the GOP.
I'm an Obama supporter (well, actually, I'm not; I'm just anti-republitard)...but I'm gonna be more realistic on this one. It won't be a landslide. He might possibly end up winning by the same margin of victory that he had in 2008, but I suspect that it will probably go down to the final week of campaigning.

I will say, however, that Obama should win - if Israel and Iran behave themselves. The thing is, republitards will look back at this race and realize that they missed an opportunity. Their politics of obstructionism have damaged them, but even worse, their wars against women and minorities might end up hurting them not only in the presidential race but in congressional races as well. That's really what the republitards need to understand now: they've opened this thing up -- like big. They might lose control of the government again.

And the really, really bad news for republitards is, if they lose control of the government for the second time in six years and if the economy continues to improve without them, I think it's really possible that their party gets discredited...which is a good thing, of course.
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