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Old 04-04-2012, 01:56 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 39,491,899 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Turnout is always going to be considerably higher in any open Primary when the other side doesn't have a competitive Primary compared to when the other side has one. With that being said it certainly is a strark jump in Dane.
Huh? Let's see the statistical evidence of this.
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Old 04-04-2012, 02:20 PM
 
16,682 posts, read 9,060,505 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerLily24 View Post
Actually, if you had read the link, you would see that the point that the author was making was that the media pretty much ignored Obama's results. I sure didn't see anything anywhere else that noted how many votes the president received.

And, you may think it un-newsworthy, however, the fact that he still gets more votes in primaries than his potential republican rivals suggests that maybe, just maybe people aren't as unhappy with the president as some would like to believe.
Of course they ignored the results. Obama beat ________. Which is nobody. They also ignored Oklahoma's results where in several areas some no name bozo ran against Obama and beat him throughout good segments of the state.

It is illogical to brag up that in Democratic Strongholds like DC/Maryland and to a lesser extent Wisconsin, Democrat Obama got more votes against _________ than Republican Romney got against Gingrich and Santorum and Ron Paul.

This is fawning to make a deal of this.
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Old 04-04-2012, 03:00 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,976 posts, read 15,428,301 times
Reputation: 3946
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Huh? Let's see the statistical evidence of this.
Well for starters its basic common sense. In GOP states that have a closed Primary anything that happens on the Democratic side and if its competitive or not is not going to have an impact on turnout because its only limited to Republicans anyway. On the other hand when its an Open Primary you are obviously going to have more Independents and Democrats vote in a GOP Primary if the Dem Primary is not competitive than you would if it was.

Also compare the turnout differences between 08 and 2012 in the Primary states that have an open Primary compred t9o the states the Primary is closed to Republicans only.
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Old 04-04-2012, 03:38 PM
 
473 posts, read 342,228 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by godofthunder9010 View Post
It won't be enough for Ron Paul to win unfortunately ... and to tell you the truth, I don't want Paul to win like that. Navigating the weird rules and picking up delegates from it is a good thing. It exposes flaws in the system that need to be addressed. But if Ron Paul were to get to 1144 while getting a distant 4th place in the popular vote, it would be a mess. The nation needs the medicine Ron Paul is prescribing, but the voice of the people must never be usurped -- even when they're being idiots.

At this point, the Caucus vote just won't be enough to win it. Many Caucus states stipulate that the delegate must vote for the candidate that they were designated for -- meaning a Ron Paul supporting delegate might very well be bound by the rules to vote for somebody else. There is a huge chunk of delegates where there are no rules telling delegates what the have to do. I don't know where we're at, but I'd be surprised if Paul isn't beating Santorum for delegates currently.

IMHO, the important messages we're sending this year:
1.) The ideology of Ron Paul is growing and it's not going away anytime soon.
2.) We are educated, intelligent people. The good ol' boys rules in the GOP primaries have numerous holes that were purposely put in for one reason or another. Do your homework and you can exploit that system all day long. So the message to the GOP: Fix your broken system.

Paul just might be able to prevent Romney from hitting 1144, especially if Newtered and Grand Inquisitor Rick stick to their guns with their own delegates. That takes you to a brokered convention. A brokered convention that fails to give the nomination to the man with the overwhelming advantage in the popular vote would do unbelievable damage to the GOP. Any scenario giving Paul the nomination will lead to a lot of popular outrage -- which does not help the movement grown one bit. At this point, any nominee but Romney just creates a giant feces storm we don't want to see.
Ron Paul is really winning the popular vote since the primaries have all been rigged since Iowa. So any popular outrage would be minimal when Ron Paul wins the nomination on the second ballot. When the people get to vote thier conscience.
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Old 04-04-2012, 04:01 PM
 
16,682 posts, read 9,060,505 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Born to Run View Post
Ron Paul is really winning the popular vote since the primaries have all been rigged since Iowa. So any popular outrage would be minimal when Ron Paul wins the nomination on the second ballot. When the people get to vote thier conscience.
So all of the universities, media outlets, and private polling firms that perform exit polls and polls are in on this vast conspiracy?
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Old 04-04-2012, 07:12 PM
 
Location: Chicago Area
8,006 posts, read 4,176,541 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Born to Run View Post
Ron Paul is really winning the popular vote since the primaries have all been rigged since Iowa. So any popular outrage would be minimal when Ron Paul wins the nomination on the second ballot. When the people get to vote thier conscience.
I think that there has been fraud and Dr Paul has been hurt by it worse than any other candidate. But I don't think Paul is actually winning the popular vote thus far. I think Romney's got the popular vote all wrapped up. Romney currently has almost four times as many votes as Paul and I don't think you can chalk all of that up to election fraud.

New ideas take time especially when they're radically different than the way it's being done currently. Even a great idea like Abolition was considered "psychotic" and "insanely radical" for awhile. It's going to take awhile for Americans to realize how right Dr Paul actually is. It will probably be Paul's successor who finally wins the Presidency. Make no mistake, this as-yet-unnamed sorta-Libertarian movement is the future of the GOP. They just don't realize it yet. Right now there's just too many older voters who have little or no interest in doing something drastically different right now. Give it time, that'll change.

Keep the faith,
GOT
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Old 04-04-2012, 07:24 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 39,491,899 times
Reputation: 7107
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Well for starters its basic common sense. In GOP states that have a closed Primary anything that happens on the Democratic side and if its competitive or not is not going to have an impact on turnout because its only limited to Republicans anyway. On the other hand when its an Open Primary you are obviously going to have more Independents and Democrats vote in a GOP Primary if the Dem Primary is not competitive than you would if it was.

Also compare the turnout differences between 08 and 2012 in the Primary states that have an open Primary compred t9o the states the Primary is closed to Republicans only.
Comparing 2008 GOP to 2012 GOP is the correct number and in this case, WI was almost double.

Just another bubble burst in the MSM/Left narrative of low turnout for the GOP.
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Old 04-04-2012, 08:26 PM
 
473 posts, read 342,228 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
So all of the universities, media outlets, and private polling firms that perform exit polls and polls are in on this vast conspiracy?
The ones who count them, yeah.
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Old 04-04-2012, 10:46 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,976 posts, read 15,428,301 times
Reputation: 3946
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Comparing 2008 GOP to 2012 GOP is the correct number and in this case, WI was almost double.

Just another bubble burst in the MSM/Left narrative of low turnout for the GOP.
2008 the Dems had a competitive Primary in 2012 they didn't. In a closed state it doesn't mean anything. In a Open Primary state, those who were voting in the 2008 Democratic Primary had the ability to vote in the GOP Primary.

Notice how Wisconsin had an open Primary and turnout increased, Maryland on the other hand had a closed Primary and turnout was down.
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Old 04-04-2012, 11:02 PM
 
Location: Fargo, ND
1,034 posts, read 1,091,693 times
Reputation: 325
I will say this about Wisconsin, the turnout Romney got in the southeast part of the state was very impressive. Although it is favorable Romney territory it seems like Ryan really boosted those numbers. His vote total in Waukesha county was especially impressive.

Also interesting that Romney won most of the McCain counties from 2008 while Santorum carried primarily Obama counties.
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