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Old 04-25-2012, 08:47 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,794 posts, read 14,223,537 times
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Obama was at right around 50 on Intrade for quite a while until the R primary melted down with the Perry & Cain falls, then he climbed to 60 and and stuck there. Since then Romney has consolidated his support yet Obama has not dropped. I think he may be overvalued at this point.
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Old 04-25-2012, 08:59 PM
 
Location: West Egg
2,161 posts, read 1,659,931 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz View Post
Obama was at right around 50 on Intrade for quite a while until the R primary melted down with the Perry & Cain falls, then he climbed to 60 and and stuck there. Since then Romney has consolidated his support yet Obama has not dropped. I think he may be overvalued at this point.
That really doesn't correlate. Obama spent the first half of 2011 above 50 on Intrade, well into the 60s for much of the spring. The crash came with the budget stand-off in August but he was mired at around 50 until mid-January -- long after the Cain and Perry implosions, which began on October and reached their head in October (Cain's sexual harrassment issues) and November (Perry's "Ooops"). His Intrade value ebb and rebound doesn't seem correlated with the GOP race as far as I can see.


https://data.intrade.com/graphing/temp/chart133518147283413932.png (broken link)
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Old 04-25-2012, 09:37 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,794 posts, read 14,223,537 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Onions View Post
That really doesn't correlate. Obama spent the first half of 2011 above 50 on Intrade, well into the 60s for much of the spring. The crash came with the budget stand-off in August but he was mired at around 50 until mid-January -- long after the Cain and Perry implosions, which began on October and reached their head in October (Cain's sexual harrassment issues) and November (Perry's "Ooops"). His Intrade value ebb and rebound doesn't seem correlated with the GOP race as far as I can see.

Well Cain really tanked in mid November; IIRC Nov 14 was his disastrous interview about Libya was Nov 14, after that was when he tanked in the polls. Perry had already gone down at that point IIRC. But there was one more 'not Romney,' namely Newt. He peaked at 35% (RCP avg) on Dec 13, and didn't really tank until early Jan. Obama started his climb to 60 on intrade around Jan 12.

Granted it's not a perfect correlation. there are other factors involved. Just a thought....
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Old 04-25-2012, 09:40 PM
 
Location: Gone
25,235 posts, read 14,002,376 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HistorianDude View Post
Intrade is a prediction market. What is a prediction market? It's a market that allows you to make predictions on the outcome of hundreds of real-world events. Stock exchanges find the price of stocks, and futures markets find the price of commodities. Prediction markets find the probability of something happening - a predefined, uncertain future event.

Currently on InTrade, Barack Obama is predicted to have a 60.7% chance of reelection.

Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 is 60.7% probable
Sounds about right.
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Old 04-25-2012, 09:58 PM
 
Location: Pluto's Home Town
9,995 posts, read 11,641,669 times
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Romney would make a great soap opera president. A real President? Nah...
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Old 04-25-2012, 10:10 PM
 
Location: The Cascade Foothills
10,953 posts, read 8,660,963 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ShakenStirred View Post
And how do these "dog lovers" feel about Obama eating dog meat (and actually admitting it, LoL!)?

Just curious.
Obama was a kid - and in a country where some things that we consider gross are considered part of that culture.

Ridiculous that any of you RW morons would try to use this as a comparison to what Romney did to his dog.

Romney was an ADULT, who was so ignorant and insensitive to another creature that he strapped that poor dog to the roof of his car for a 12-hour road trip. And the dog "liked" it so much he crapped all over himself and the car.

And then the Romney family, in all their compassion, hosed that poor dog down, and by all accounts, hit the road again, with that poor wet dog back on top of that car.

There is absolutely no excuse for what they did - and I include Ann in that decision, too, because she obviously condoned it.

While I would rather have never known about President Obama eating dog, I do at least like to think that the dog didn't suffer for twelve hours, like poor Seamus did.

What President Obama did as a child, and when he was in a country where this was part of the culture, and what Mittens and his wife did AS ADULTS are apples and oranges.

But, unless you are completely ignorant and clueless, I think you know that.
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Old 04-25-2012, 10:15 PM
 
Location: The Cascade Foothills
10,953 posts, read 8,660,963 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead View Post
Romney would make a great soap opera president. A real President? Nah...
I could kind of see him as a Mormon J.R. Ewing - all the evil business dealings but without all the sex and alcohol.
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Old 04-25-2012, 10:57 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 39,511,206 times
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Well....let's just call the race right now...even though Romney is leading/tied with obama!

Love it! I smell...fear.
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Old 04-26-2012, 06:14 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,868 posts, read 22,727,547 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Well....let's just call the race right now...even though Romney is leading/tied with obama!

Love it! I smell...fear.
Sorry to disappoint you but I've no "fear" - nor do I buy polls by FOX News & Rasmussen. I'm also of the opinion that as the year progresses the economy will continue to improve and the UE rate drop further (I'm predicting the U-3 will be in the mid-low 7% range by election day) - all of which will bolster Obama's advantage even more.

Ken
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Old 04-26-2012, 11:40 AM
 
Location: The Cascade Foothills
10,953 posts, read 8,660,963 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Sorry to disappoint you but I've no "fear" - nor do I buy polls by FOX News & Rasmussen. I'm also of the opinion that as the year progresses the economy will continue to improve and the UE rate drop further (I'm predicting the U-3 will be in the mid-low 7% range by election day) - all of which will bolster Obama's advantage even more.

Ken
This.
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