U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 04-05-2012, 06:38 AM
 
Location: Littleton, CO
20,894 posts, read 13,612,128 times
Reputation: 3949

Advertisements

Intrade is a prediction market. What is a prediction market? It's a market that allows you to make predictions on the outcome of hundreds of real-world events. Stock exchanges find the price of stocks, and futures markets find the price of commodities. Prediction markets find the probability of something happening - a predefined, uncertain future event.

Currently on InTrade, Barack Obama is predicted to have a 60.7% chance of reelection.

Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 is 60.7% probable
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 04-05-2012, 07:10 AM
 
Location: Norman, OK
3,479 posts, read 6,332,275 times
Reputation: 1197
I am certain there will be fluctuations in that number as events domestically and internationally evolve. That said, I have always contended that this is Obama's election to lose.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-05-2012, 07:34 AM
 
3,421 posts, read 2,583,684 times
Reputation: 1238
Quote:
Originally Posted by wxjay View Post
I am certain there will be fluctuations in that number as events domestically and internationally evolve. That said, I have always contended that this is Obama's election to lose.
I would disagree with that. obama hasn't a great job. He has been average at best. This was a great time for republicans to come in and get back the big seat. Than they proceeded to bring out some of the worse candidates. I've never seen so much foot-in-mouth disease. They constantly have shot themselves in the foot.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-05-2012, 07:54 AM
 
Location: Gone
25,235 posts, read 13,997,486 times
Reputation: 5916
Quote:
Originally Posted by HistorianDude View Post
Intrade is a prediction market. What is a prediction market? It's a market that allows you to make predictions on the outcome of hundreds of real-world events. Stock exchanges find the price of stocks, and futures markets find the price of commodities. Prediction markets find the probability of something happening - a predefined, uncertain future event.

Currently on InTrade, Barack Obama is predicted to have a 60.7% chance of reelection.

Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 is 60.7% probable
Sounds about right. The GOP blew it big time, from the beginning of the race I have said that they were not serious when it came to this election, all one had to do was look at who was running for the GOP and it was obvious they did not stand a chance. Romney will get the nomination as I predicted and he will lose badly.
The more interesting races will be in the House and Senate.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-05-2012, 08:02 AM
 
Location: Norman, OK
3,479 posts, read 6,332,275 times
Reputation: 1197
Quote:
Originally Posted by nighttrain55 View Post
I would disagree with that. obama hasn't a great job. He has been average at best. This was a great time for republicans to come in and get back the big seat. Than they proceeded to bring out some of the worse candidates. I've never seen so much foot-in-mouth disease. They constantly have shot themselves in the foot.
The important aspect will be the perceived trend in the economy come election time. If it is perceived, and voters are convinced, that things are getting better, Obama wins. That would be if the most conservative or the most moderate GOP candidate won the nomination. Americans are in general not happy to change horses mid-stream when things look to be getting better.

If things suddenly take a turn for the worse for whatever reason, then Obama is in trouble.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-05-2012, 09:25 AM
 
1,072 posts, read 2,501,317 times
Reputation: 1286
Sounds about right to me and if I'm reading the chart correctly that number has been rising. I've always thought that internal GOP polls on swing states have shown Obama with an advantage, otherwise there would be more serious candidates for the GOP nomination. There are a number of GOP candidates that could have easily trounced this field but didn't get into the race. Why? Because they don't think they can beat Obama.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-05-2012, 09:42 AM
 
Location: #
9,605 posts, read 14,629,681 times
Reputation: 6278
He went up a half of a percent today.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-05-2012, 09:45 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,683 posts, read 83,244,992 times
Reputation: 41524
that is about like predicting the stock market 6 months in advance, no 7 months.

Nita
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-05-2012, 10:00 AM
 
1,072 posts, read 2,501,317 times
Reputation: 1286
Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
that is about like predicting the stock market 6 months in advance, no 7 months.

Nita
That's generally what people try to do.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-05-2012, 10:02 AM
Status: "Trump: Comrade!" (set 4 days ago)
 
10,478 posts, read 6,173,167 times
Reputation: 7216
I think that Romney could have a real chance if he chooses wisely his VP running mate.

To be honest, before Governor Perry jumped into (and then out of) the race, I thought he would be a very good VP candidate for Mr. Romney. Now, I am not so certain (only due to the 'perception' of many people; I frankly did not care that he 'oops'. Once you get older you realize that fumbling for words becomes more of the norm).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
Similar Threads
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:25 PM.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top