Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Sounds about right. The GOP blew it big time, from the beginning of the race I have said that they were not serious when it came to this election, all one had to do was look at who was running for the GOP and it was obvious they did not stand a chance. Romney will get the nomination as I predicted and he will lose badly.
The more interesting races will be in the House and Senate.
So you agree that Obama's chance of being re-elected is only slightly higher than 60%, which would imply that you think the GOP has close to a 40% chance of winning the election, but then you say you think the GOP has no chance?
~40% =/= 0%
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 04-05-2012 at 12:07 PM..
So you agree that Obama's chance of being re-elected is only slightly higher than 60%, which would imply that you think the GOP has close to a 40% chance of winning the election, but then you say you think the GOP has no chance?
~40% =/= 0%
They are trying to make lemonaide out of lemons...lol.
It's way too early for Obama to only be at 60%. We don't even have a nominee yet. He should be riding at about 75% at least.
Given how divided the country is and how close recent elections have been I don't see how any candidate could have a 75% chance this far out. Obama's approval is in the 40s, the Republicans picked up seats on every front in 2010 and intrade still gives Obama a 60% chance. I'll take it.
Fundraising doesn't matter anymore. All of our candidates have corporate sponsors in the form of billionaire CEOs.
Plus the GOP has a nominee, mathematically it's been Romney for a little over a month now. Intrade has Romeny as a 96% chance of being the nominee FWIW.
So you agree that Obama's chance of being re-elected is only slightly higher than 60%, which would imply that you think the GOP has close to a 40% chance of winning the election, but then you say you think the GOP has no chance?
~40% =/= 0%
In this particular case 40% does equate to no chance. If you have any new math that shows 40% of the vote beating out 60% of the vote in any way please post it here, everyone would love to see it.
Given how divided the country is and how close recent elections have been I don't see how any candidate could have a 75% chance this far out. Obama's approval is in the 40s, the Republicans picked up seats on every front in 2010 and intrade still gives Obama a 60% chance. I'll take it.
Fundraising doesn't matter anymore. All of our candidates have corporate sponsors in the form of billionaire CEOs.
Plus the GOP has a nominee, mathematically it's been Romney for a little over a month now. Intrade has Romeny as a 96% chance of being the nominee FWIW.
The GOP is just now starting to coalesce around Romney as the nominee, once they do, Obama's percentage will fall even more. Obama's approval rating is a good example of why this is not good for the Democrats.
Intrade is useful as an indicator, but I find it to be more reactive than predictive.
They are trying to make lemonaide out of lemons...lol.
Real lemonaide is made from lemons, but some here obviously want to use oranges to make it. Since you have the answer please provide the math formula that shows how 40% beats out 60%, this should be interesting
The GOP is just now starting to coalesce around Romney as the nominee, once they do, Obama's percentage will fall even more. Obama's approval rating is a good example of why this is not good for the Democrats.
Intrade is useful as an indicator, but I find it to be more reactive than predictive.
REALLY? You actually believe die hard Santorum supporters will rally around Romney, a social Liberal? You really believe on Ron Paul supporters will give up ther principles and back Romney, someone that stands for everything they hate? Girl, I have no idea what you are smokin but pass that thing over here, I need to see the world through your rose colored vision for just a moment.
In this particular case 40% does equate to no chance. If you have any new math that shows 40% of the vote beating out 60% of the vote in any way please post it here, everyone would love to see it.
It's not a poll. If it was, you'd have a point.
The polls - while they generally have Obama ahead (but below 50%) - show a much smaller margin and the polls have changed and will change one way or the other many times over the next seven months.
This has nothing to do with what percentage of the vote a candidate will receive. If a candidate has a 60% chance of winning, assuming a two-way race, the percentage of the vote that they would typically be estimated to receive would probably be around 51%, which means that the other candidate has a solid chance.
The GOP is just now starting to coalesce around Romney as the nominee, once they do, Obama's percentage will fall even more. Obama's approval rating is a good example of why this is not good for the Democrats.
Intrade is useful as an indicator, but I find it to be more reactive than predictive.
His approval rating isn't good for Dems, but having a 60% chance of re-election (when people are betting on it) despite that is good. It means most betters view Obama as the stronger candidate (and their are a variety of reasons why he is) despite his weaknesses.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
