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Old 04-10-2012, 03:47 PM
 
3,513 posts, read 3,242,803 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FargoBison View Post
It really boils down to PA, VA, OH, FL, and NC, Romney needs four of those five.

A few smaller states like NH and IA are also in play, if Romney can't take PA in the above strategy but gets the others then he may need one of those two.

Indiana right now is the only state that I can say confidently will go to Romney right now that Obama had won in 2008. I don't think Romney is at risk to lose any McCain states at the moment but he has his work cut out for him in the swing states.

so essentially your saying Obama plays defense and Romney goes on the offense. If Obama contains Romney, Obama wins. If Obama can't contain Romney, Romney wins.

Do you see Obama only playing D or do you see him going after some 2008 McCain states?
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Old 04-10-2012, 04:23 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
1,609 posts, read 3,150,590 times
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Arizona is one state where Obama generated lots of enthusiasm in 2008 but did not win because it was McCain's home state. He could target it.
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Old 04-10-2012, 04:30 PM
 
Location: West Egg
2,161 posts, read 1,663,759 times
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First, what is the baseline? I would suggest each baseline represents the states each party has swept the past three Presidential elections:

Democrats (18 states + DC, 242 Electoral votes):
California (55)
New York (29)
Illinois (20)
Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
New Jersey (14)
Washington (12)
Massachusetts (11)
Maryland (10)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
Connecticut (7)
Oregon (7)
Hawai'i (4)
Maine (4)
Rhode Island (4)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Vermont (3)

Republicans (22 states, 180 Electoral votes):
Texas (38)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Tennessee (11)
Missouri (10)
Alabama (9)
South Carolina (9)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Oklahoma (7)
Arkansas (6)
Kansas (6)
Mississippi (6)
Utah (6)
Nebraska (5)
West Virginia (5)
Idaho (4)
Alaska (3)
Montana (3)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
Wyoming (3)

Other (10 states, 116 votes):
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Indiana (11)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Mexico (5)
New Hampshire (4)

[note -- I've given all of Nebraska to the Republicans, even though the state allocates by district, and Obama won NE-2 in 2008, mostly because NE-2 won't be critical because of Obama wins it again it will indicate an easy Obama victory]

One can quibble about these baseline states, but there will be few if any deviations from them. Republicans will be looking at Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and maybe Minnesota from the Democratic base group. Democrats will be looking at Missouri, Arizona and maybe Arizona from the Republican base group. But all of these are long shots and will only occur in an easy victory by one side or the other.

Of the 10 toss-up states, a few things immediately jump out. First, Indiana looks to be an easy Republican gain. Their fortunes will also be good in North Carolina. Florida is a must-win for the GOP -- its Electoral votes plus the Democratic baseline put Obama over the 270 total needed to win. After Florida, Ohio and Virginia will be epic battlegrounds. In fact, those three states will probably see the most expenditures and campaign visits per Electoral vote.
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Old 04-10-2012, 04:36 PM
 
9,378 posts, read 9,534,811 times
Reputation: 5786
Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Onions View Post
First, what is the baseline? I would suggest each baseline represents the states each party has swept the past three Presidential elections:

Democrats (18 states + DC, 242 Electoral votes):
California (55)
New York (29)
Illinois (20)
Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
New Jersey (14)
Washington (12)
Massachusetts (11)
Maryland (10)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
Connecticut (7)
Oregon (7)
Hawai'i (4)
Maine (4)
Rhode Island (4)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Vermont (3)

Republicans (22 states, 180 Electoral votes):
Texas (38)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Tennessee (11)
Missouri (10)
Alabama (9)
South Carolina (9)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Oklahoma (7)
Arkansas (6)
Kansas (6)
Mississippi (6)
Utah (6)
Nebraska (5)
West Virginia (5)
Idaho (4)
Alaska (3)
Montana (3)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
Wyoming (3)

Other (10 states, 116 votes):
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Indiana (11)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Mexico (5)
New Hampshire (4)

[note -- I've given all of Nebraska to the Republicans, even though the state allocates by district, and Obama won NE-2 in 2008, mostly because NE-2 won't be critical because of Obama wins it again it will indicate an easy Obama victory]

One can quibble about these baseline states, but there will be few if any deviations from them. Republicans will be looking at Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and maybe Minnesota from the Democratic base group. Democrats will be looking at Missouri, Arizona and maybe Arizona from the Republican base group. But all of these are long shots and will only occur in an easy victory by one side or the other.

Of the 10 toss-up states, a few things immediately jump out. First, Indiana looks to be an easy Republican gain. Their fortunes will also be good in North Carolina. Florida is a must-win for the GOP -- its Electoral votes plus the Democratic baseline put Obama over the 270 total needed to win. After Florida, Ohio and Virginia will be epic battlegrounds. In fact, those three states will probably see the most expenditures and campaign visits per Electoral vote.
I think Michigan could have swung into the (R) coloum this year,
1)They swung hard right, both houses have Republican Supermajorities in Lansing, and a Republican Governership
2) Its Romneys "home" state, so that would help him.
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Old 04-10-2012, 04:36 PM
 
Location: West Egg
2,161 posts, read 1,663,759 times
Reputation: 1278
Quote:
Originally Posted by tropolis View Post
so essentially your saying Obama plays defense and Romney goes on the offense. If Obama contains Romney, Obama wins. If Obama can't contain Romney, Romney wins.

Do you see Obama only playing D or do you see him going after some 2008 McCain states?
Obama will have the resources to put a few McCain states in play, if for no other reason than to force Romney to put resources there as well. But there aren't very many plausible targets. John McCain only won 7 states by margins of less than 10%:
Missouri - 0.1%
Montana - 2.3%
Georgia - 5.2%
South Dakota - 8.4%
Arizona - 8.5%
North Dakota - 8.6%
South Carolina - 9.0%
+ Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District - 9.8%
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Old 04-10-2012, 04:41 PM
 
Location: West Egg
2,161 posts, read 1,663,759 times
Reputation: 1278
Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Onions View Post
First, what is the baseline? I would suggest each baseline represents the states each party has swept the past three Presidential elections:

Democrats (18 states + DC, 242 Electoral votes):
California (55)
New York (29)
Illinois (20)
Pennsylvania (20)
Michigan (16)
New Jersey (14)
Washington (12)
Massachusetts (11)
Maryland (10)
Minnesota (10)
Wisconsin (10)
Connecticut (7)
Oregon (7)
Hawai'i (4)
Maine (4)
Rhode Island (4)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Vermont (3)

Republicans (22 states, 180 Electoral votes):
Texas (38)
Georgia (16)
Arizona (11)
Tennessee (11)
Missouri (10)
Alabama (9)
South Carolina (9)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Oklahoma (7)
Arkansas (6)
Kansas (6)
Mississippi (6)
Utah (6)
Nebraska (5)
West Virginia (5)
Idaho (4)
Alaska (3)
Montana (3)
North Dakota (3)
South Dakota (3)
Wyoming (3)

Other (10 states, 116 votes):
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Indiana (11)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Mexico (5)
New Hampshire (4)
Obama takes Ohio and Colorado, Romney picks up the other eight toss-ups, and it's a 269-269 tie!
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Old 04-10-2012, 04:41 PM
 
12 posts, read 14,039 times
Reputation: 11
All Romney has to do(as if it's easy)is win back some of the states Bush won in 04 that Obama won in 2008. That means winning Colorado,Florida,Indiana,Iowa,Nevada,New Mexico,North Carolina,Ohio,and Virginia. I really do not see Obama winning a state he didn't in 2008.
Romney in my view HAS to win Indiana,Florida,North Carolina,Ohio and Virginia. He will also have to win one of the swing western states,CO,NM,or Nevada.
That isn't counting possible Romney pickups in Wisconsin,Michigan,Minnesota,New Hampshire. I would also not totally discount a state like Oregon or Maine.
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Old 04-10-2012, 04:55 PM
Sco
 
4,259 posts, read 4,237,214 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asubram3 View Post
Arizona is one state where Obama generated lots of enthusiasm in 2008 but did not win because it was McCain's home state. He could target it.
He already is, remember his visit where the classless governor waved her finger in his face. With the SB1070 backlash and Arpaio going full birther, Arizona has a solid shot at going for Obama this time around.
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Old 04-10-2012, 05:22 PM
 
12 posts, read 14,039 times
Reputation: 11
Fast and furious won't help him in Arizona.
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Old 04-10-2012, 05:36 PM
F40
 
Location: 85379^85268
826 posts, read 729,321 times
Reputation: 402
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sco View Post
He already is, remember his visit where the classless governor waved her finger in his face. With the SB1070 backlash and Arpaio going full birther, Arizona has a solid shot at going for Obama this time around.

I will agree with you on this. I have a 76 year old Mother in law Who is/was A hard core Republican and devoted Mormon who will vote for Obama in 2012. I am center left, and will be voting for President Obama again.

I sense the Republicans are not as strong here as some would think for this next election.
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