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Old 04-10-2012, 06:49 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tropolis View Post
so essentially your saying Obama plays defense and Romney goes on the offense. If Obama contains Romney, Obama wins. If Obama can't contain Romney, Romney wins.

Do you see Obama only playing D or do you see him going after some 2008 McCain states?
The Obama team will go after nearly everything. That's a big part of how they won in 2008. Making states like North Carolina into battles (and winning) was key.
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Old 04-10-2012, 07:09 PM
 
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Honest truth, if the election were today, Obama wins comfortably.

However, there is a lot of time and these polls will swing back and forth between now and November.

Although unlikely, it is not impossible for Romney to win Pennsylvania (20) or Michigan (16). Getting either one dramatically changes the odds and makes it at least close in the electoral college. Romney will have to hold the states that lean Republican without a margin of error (especially Florida) while trying to pick off some of the potential swing states that lean Democratic.

It certainly isn't impossible for Romney to win, but its tough for the moment.
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Old 04-10-2012, 07:20 PM
 
Location: #
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If Romney turns too much to the right, he may not even see 170.
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Old 04-10-2012, 07:52 PM
 
Location: Fargo, ND
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tropolis View Post
so essentially your saying Obama plays defense and Romney goes on the offense. If Obama contains Romney, Obama wins. If Obama can't contain Romney, Romney wins.

Do you see Obama only playing D or do you see him going after some 2008 McCain states?
Considering he did so well in 2008 I think defense is his best strategy, especially since a few of the states he carried are pretty vulnerable right now and will be very hard to hold. Of the states McCain won I think Obama would most likely take a run at is MO(that is probably the one state where Romney has the most work to do), the rest are probably out of reach as long as the southern base falls in line behind Romney.

I expect Obama to put a ton of time in PA, OH and VA, if he wins those states the path for Romney is very difficult if not impossible. That said if Romney can take OH and VA, election night could be very interesting and the result might look similar to 2004 or 2000.

That said if the election was tonight I think the result would be something like 303 to 285 electoral votes for Obama and 253-235 for Romney.
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Old 04-10-2012, 09:01 PM
 
Location: NJ
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The reality is Obama will not win a single state he lost in 2008, and he will lose several back for sure. This is going to come down to a few swing states of magnitude, no doubt.
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Old 04-11-2012, 01:28 AM
 
Location: US Empire, Pac NW
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I'm not a pollster or a pro statistics guy ... but here's what the bettors say will happen:

2012 U.S. Presidential Election Betting Odds | 2012 Presidential Betting Lines

I also played around with the 2012 map.

Basically, I think the rust belt states are going to be harder than Republicans think to take. The reason is the economies are picking up. American car companies have recorded record sales increases of their small cars and SUVs. They're also clamoring for people.

So I think MI and OH will go Democrat this year.

I think also that Nevada will vote Democrat this year, and so will FL.

I say FL because the latino vote is ever more important this year and it is the most important state to win. If OH goes to either party, then the other MUST get FL. Note that I'm assuming NC will go Republican.

So I think it will be a close race, simply because the economy hasn't picked up as quickly as people were hoping for when Obama got elected. Yes it's a huge hole and yes the world's largest economy doesn't spin on a dime; but people don't know that. Your Joe Sixpack just sees gas costing $4.15 a gallon eating in to his new job's savings.
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Old 04-11-2012, 06:32 AM
 
Location: West Egg
2,161 posts, read 1,666,257 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asubram3 View Post
Why do some of you think Minnesota could be a Republican gain? It always elects Democratic candidates by large margins (even went that way in 1984). When was the last time Minnesota supported a Republican presidential candidate?
Nixon, 1972.

Minnesota is that state that's always supposed 'just about to go Republican' at the Presidential level. It hasn't yet, of course. Bush came within 4% of taking it in 2004, but Obama beat McCain in the state by over 10%.

What is problematic at the moment for the GOP in Minnesota is that the state party is in disarray. It is heavily in debt, its former manager is under investigation for financial improprieties, and the recent GOP Senate Majority Leader has to resign late last year after acknowleding an 'inappropriate relationship' with a staffer. It doesn't help that the only other big race in the state this year features
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Old 04-11-2012, 06:34 AM
 
Location: West Egg
2,161 posts, read 1,666,257 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
Honest truth, if the election were today, Obama wins comfortably.

However, there is a lot of time and these polls will swing back and forth between now and November.

Although unlikely, it is not impossible for Romney to win Pennsylvania (20) or Michigan (16). Getting either one dramatically changes the odds and makes it at least close in the electoral college. Romney will have to hold the states that lean Republican without a margin of error (especially Florida) while trying to pick off some of the potential swing states that lean Democratic.

It certainly isn't impossible for Romney to win, but its tough for the moment.
I can see Obama winning while losing Pennsylvania. Not easily (if Romney wins Pennsylvania, he probably wins the election), but possibly. But Michigan? That seals it for Romney. If things are so bad for Obama that he can't win Michigan, then he's not going to find 270 Electoral votes.
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Old 04-11-2012, 07:40 AM
 
Location: Norman, OK
3,479 posts, read 6,353,461 times
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^I agree, Green Onions. However, I would go further - if Obama loses PA, he also loses Ohio. That is 38 electoral votes that Obama certainly can lose given his 2008 numbers, but it will be telling of more problems for him in other states like NC and potentially MI. We already know that Obama's strength with the working class, particularly white men, is weakening. Any further weakening will depend on the state of the economy. A dismal March jobs report is not a good start but it isn't indicative of a trend either. Note that even in polls that show Obama beating Romney, his numbers on handling of the economy are near or even below Romney's. That is a bad sign for the President if the economy indeed stalls.

In fact, Obama may have to worry about Europe for his re-election bids. Any signs of a Greek default or other Eurozone trouble or even Chinese slowdowns this year will send stocks into a spiral and crush the weak recovery we are experiencing.
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Old 04-11-2012, 07:45 AM
Sco
 
4,259 posts, read 4,244,065 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New World Man View Post
We will see.
It's just that I have heard in every election since I started following politics that they are "lifelong Republicans"are now going Democrat.
Were they Goldwater era Republicans embarassed by the theocratic clown show the GOP has turned into? Not every Republican grew up on Fox News and talk radio hatred.
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