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Old 04-10-2012, 01:52 PM
 
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Which states should they focus on in your opinion? What states could either of them potentially flip?

General strategy if you were advising Obama or Romney on how to get to 270.
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Old 04-10-2012, 02:01 PM
 
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Romney needs to win the south which he can't do so there goes any chance of him winning the election. I can sit back smoke a cigar and call all the romneytards I know and gloat when he loses in November.
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Old 04-10-2012, 02:20 PM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tropolis View Post
Which states should they focus on in your opinion? What states could either of them potentially flip?

General strategy if you were advising Obama or Romney on how to get to 270.
The simplest way would be coming out of Bethesda Md, catch I495 go north and it will run into I270.
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Old 04-10-2012, 02:25 PM
 
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Romney can't win without OH, FL, VA and NC. If Obama keeps any of those states it'll be a short evening.
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Old 04-10-2012, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Montgomery County, MD
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Obama is likely going to win so I don't need to point out his obvious strategy but here is how I would advise Romney:

-Keep an eye on Republican leaning swing states: Arizona, Missouri, Georgia, Montana. These states are a tough win for Obama but keep an eye on these states and do not take them for granted. Georgia is the most likely to flip to Obama because of its large minority population and growth but still likely Romney.

-Make inroads in winnable 2008 Obama states: Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia. North Carolina may tip to Romney, Obama barely won it last time and it leans Republican but Obama will be fighting hard in each of these states. Romney may do well in NH too because it neighbors his home state and he does seem to have great popularity there. Virginia is a tougher sell because it's trending Democratic quickly. Romney may outperform McCain in Nevada due to Mormon enthusiasm but he still probably won't win. Colorado & Iowa are much harder nuts to crack.

-OHIO AND FLORIDA: THE most important swing states. If Romney wins Florida AND Ohio, he will win the election. It would be next to impossible to win if Romney loses Ohio and impossible if he loses Florida.
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Old 04-10-2012, 02:48 PM
 
Location: Norman, OK
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^I find it very hard to believe that Georgia will be in any way, shape, or form be a 'swing' state. Even in the momentous 2008 election, Obama still lost by over 4 points. This year, there will be lower turnout from African Americans and college students. This is solid red in my book.

I agree with the importance of NC (which I believe will go R this cycle), VA (more of a swing state, but I am not convinced it is trending Democratic quickly), NH (this is always a toss up in recent elections, and they are quite old-school Republican...), and NV (this one will be a toss up, but it is a good shot for an Obama hold).

Florida and Ohio are almost must wins. I say 'almost' because PA *could* be in play this cycle, especially if the economy sours more. I think if PA goes for Romney for some reason, Ohio will go as well. This makes Florida not a 'must win' to capture the presidency. Probable? Eh, maybe. You never know - lots of the old rules have been thrown out the last couple of election cycles.

By the way, there is a lot of talk in New England states of perhaps a resurgence of the Republican party for Congress. This is especially possible in RI, with a vastly unpopular D in RI-1 (David Cicciline) and in CT with an open seat in the Senate perhaps challenged by formerly popular Congressman Shays. And for all of the apparent liberalness of MA, Scott Brown is still running close to his likely opponent, Elizabeth Warren, to retain his Senate seat this election. That campaign could get ugly. Now, do I expect RI or CT to go R this cycle? No, but the push for new Congressmen and perhaps removal of one-party rule in several states could make the presidential race more interesting there.
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Old 04-10-2012, 02:51 PM
 
Location: Austin, TX
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You all left out Indiana.
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Old 04-10-2012, 03:18 PM
 
Location: Fargo, ND
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It really boils down to PA, VA, OH, FL, and NC, Romney needs four of those five.

A few smaller states like NH and IA are also in play, if Romney can't take PA in the above strategy but gets the others then he may need one of those two.

Indiana right now is the only state that I can say confidently will go to Romney right now that Obama had won in 2008. I don't think Romney is at risk to lose any McCain states at the moment but he has his work cut out for him in the swing states.
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Old 04-10-2012, 03:35 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
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Why, here's a handy, dandy tool to let you play with the states.

Let's Play: Create your 2012 Map
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Old 04-10-2012, 03:47 PM
Sco
 
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For Romney to get to 270 he would need a personality transplant and a time machine.
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