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Old 04-10-2012, 03:19 PM
 
3,421 posts, read 1,161,027 times
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Default Could Ron Paul hurt Romney?

Just a thought, I admit I could way off base here. Because Romney hasn't exactly excited the GOP up to this point, is possible that people will just write in Ron Paul and take away votes from Romney? I realize it may sound stupid, but its just a question.
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Old 04-10-2012, 04:20 PM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
3,731 posts, read 5,896,547 times
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We've beaten this to death already about a dozen times.

History shows, most conspicuously 1992, that in presidential elections a third-party or write-in candidate takes roughly an equal number of votes from the two mainstream candidates, the case of Ron Paul appears to be no exception, and in any case electorally it most probably makes no difference, especially considering that only some states allow write-in candidates and in some of those states the write-in candidate must register beforehand otherwise the write-in candidate is not counted individually, but as "other" or somesuch instead.

I live in a state that allows write-ins but, unless the write-in candidate registers as a write-in, the vote is not counted in the candidate's name. My understanding is that Ron Paul has no intention of running as a third-party candidate nor of registering as a write-in candidate in those states that require it.

Nonetheless, I will write-in Ron Paul, with no expectation that my vote will change the course of the presidential election, unless the outcome in my state is similar to the one in 2000, highly unlikely. I do it as a matter of conscious. And besides, no other candidate has a stance on the most important policy issue of the day, actually the last decade or so, monetary policy, which unfortunately is too subtle for most people to grasp, even congressmen and presidents.

Therefore, with a Constitutional balance of power in mind, I regard the entire ballot - presidential, Senate and House elections -, as a single vote with several prongs. So a write-in for Ron Paul in the presidential election coupled with independent votes for the Senate and House candidates in my state and district, based on another or other pertinent issues, has a strategic, as well as moral, logic to it.

Finally, unfortunately, as far as I know, there is no lobby/special interest/pressure group that focuses solely on sound money policy, and unfortunately Ron Paul has had to dilute that focus with libertarian ideology mumbojumbo to attract youth support. Therefore I conclude that any such momentous change in policy mindset must come from the top and they simply are not there yet. Nevertheless there are such groups for other pertinent single issues like taxation policy, which actually may be more effective than the vote at the ballot box and sometimes even potent when used together.

Good Luck!
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Old 04-10-2012, 05:46 PM
 
Location: MN
1,669 posts, read 3,797,093 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nighttrain55 View Post
Just a thought, I admit I could way off base here. Because Romney hasn't exactly excited the GOP up to this point, is possible that people will just write in Ron Paul and take away votes from Romney? I realize it may sound stupid, but its just a question.
Is it really "taking away votes" from Romney if people don't like Romney and never planned to vote for him?
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:06 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
8,697 posts, read 3,514,500 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moving123456 View Post
Is it really "taking away votes" from Romney if people don't like Romney and never planned to vote for him?
Both only mean a wider margin of victory for Obama.
Most often, a 3rd party hurts the incumbent more than the challenger, but with the split in the Republican party this year, a vote for Paul is more likely to hurt Romney than Obama, as Paul is a conservative challenger.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:11 PM
 
Location: Fargo, ND
993 posts, read 620,654 times
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Ron Paul write ins would have a limited effect since those people likely weren't Romney voters to begin with. A third party run would have an affect but I highly doubt Paul goes down that road.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:14 PM
 
3,084 posts, read 1,663,190 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nighttrain55 View Post
Just a thought, I admit I could way off base here. Because Romney hasn't exactly excited the GOP up to this point, is possible that people will just write in Ron Paul and take away votes from Romney? I realize it may sound stupid, but its just a question.
Can't speak for others. I'm a Paul supporter and he will certainly get my vote if he gets the nomination. Should he not get the nomination I'll vote 3rd party in the hope that at some point the Libertarian party will get a high enough percentage of votes to get federal matching funds.

Based on his history Romney never had a chance of getting my vote. That has far less to do with my support for Paul than it does with my disdain for Romney and his well demonstrated lack of conviction and principle. DC has been infested with politicians that stand for little other than their own personal advancement and further enriching their financial backers for far too long. I'm unwilling to continue that despicable tradition by rewarding Romney with a vote.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:17 PM
 
Location: Texas
28,117 posts, read 22,906,116 times
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I dunno. He's kind of skinny and old...but he might get a rabbit punch or two in.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:20 PM
 
Location: Land Of Moose, Blueberries, and Chickadees
9,929 posts, read 5,153,032 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by banjomike View Post
Both only mean a wider margin of victory for Obama.
Most often, a 3rd party hurts the incumbent more than the challenger, but with the split in the Republican party this year, a vote for Paul is more likely to hurt Romney than Obama, as Paul is a conservative challenger.
Romney, Obama...what's the difference.

The fact is, Paul people are not going to vote for Romney no matter how much you all try to tell us it's "throwing away our vote" or that we are essentially, "voting for Obama".

No, we are not, on either count. We are not going to vote for Romney, we never were so Romney has never had those votes and never will have them.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:45 PM
 
Location: Greater Washington, DC
1,284 posts, read 367,130 times
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All the Paul supporters I know are fairly liberal and would otherwise vote for Obama. Of course I'm a college student... All the Paul supporters I see on this forum would certainly not vote for Obama. Paul seems to draw support from 2 groups: the young, disaffected liberals who feel let down by Obama's lack of "change;" and the far-right conservatives who's definition of liberty is one that precludes just about any semblance of government. It's hard to say how a serious Paul third-party candidacy would hurt each party relative to the other.

That being said, if it's just random write-ins without an actual write-in campaign, there will be no effect.
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Old 04-15-2012, 11:06 PM
 
Location: Cherokee Nation
27,537 posts, read 10,484,208 times
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This election, just like all others, has already been decided by the world banking leaders.
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