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Old 04-14-2012, 05:54 PM
 
Location: Unperson Everyman Land
38,642 posts, read 26,378,527 times
Reputation: 12648

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It's simple.

The anti-incumbent vote almost always swings to the challenger.

"It seems that undecided voters are not literally undecided, not straddling the fence unable to make a choice – the traditional interpretation. An early decision to vote for the incumbent is easier because voters know incumbents best. It helps to think of undecided voters as undecided about the incumbent, as voters who question the incumbent’s performance in office. Most or all voters having trouble with this decision appear to end up deciding against the incumbent."

Incumbent Rule


Obama currently leads Romney by 2.4% according to the RCP average.

This means Romney needs only 64% of the undecideds to win.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:06 PM
 
Location: Eastern NC
20,868 posts, read 23,554,229 times
Reputation: 18814
Don't count your chickens before they hatch. You maybe highly disappointed.
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:07 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
7,085 posts, read 12,055,553 times
Reputation: 4125
So the group people who always votes against the person in office, no matter what good or bad that person has done, will vote against Obama. Thank you captain obvious. If it is news to anyone the group of people that name themselves how they will vote is voting the same way, maybe it's time for a neuropsych evaluation.

Wouldn't that already be factored into the votes already since you say it happens every year, by the same people, without fail?

What I wonder is if the people who assure everyone around them Obama will lose will stop making predictions if they are proven wrong.

So far it hasn't stopped the birthers predicting they would oust Obama with some big seeeeeeeeeeeecret.
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:13 PM
 
Location: Iowa
865 posts, read 623,209 times
Reputation: 588
Quote:
Originally Posted by momonkey View Post
It's simple.

The anti-incumbent vote almost always swings to the challenger.

"It seems that undecided voters are not literally undecided, not straddling the fence unable to make a choice – the traditional interpretation. An early decision to vote for the incumbent is easier because voters know incumbents best. It helps to think of undecided voters as undecided about the incumbent, as voters who question the incumbent’s performance in office. Most or all voters having trouble with this decision appear to end up deciding against the incumbent."

Incumbent Rule


Obama currently leads Romney by 2.4% according to the RCP average.

This means Romney needs only 64% of the undecideds to win.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Either way, when Obama has to defend his record it will all change. He'll "ummmm", "ahhhhh" through the debates and look like an illiterate.
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:25 PM
 
Location: Maryland
18,630 posts, read 19,418,524 times
Reputation: 6462
Quote:
Originally Posted by momonkey View Post
It's simple.

The anti-incumbent vote almost always swings to the challenger.

"It seems that undecided voters are not literally undecided, not straddling the fence unable to make a choice – the traditional interpretation. An early decision to vote for the incumbent is easier because voters know incumbents best. It helps to think of undecided voters as undecided about the incumbent, as voters who question the incumbent’s performance in office. Most or all voters having trouble with this decision appear to end up deciding against the incumbent."

Incumbent Rule


Obama currently leads Romney by 2.4% according to the RCP average.

This means Romney needs only 64% of the undecideds to win.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
64% seems like a lot.
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:29 PM
 
9,229 posts, read 8,550,038 times
Reputation: 14775
Unless the 99% are satisfied with having the 1% continue to run the GOP (and therefore their country), they will be turning out -- now worries there. I suspect this summer will be a summer of demonstrations illustrating just how much the 1% have done for US, and it shouldn't be tough to see who's in it for the everyday person.
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:41 PM
 
Location: On The Road Full Time RVing
2,341 posts, read 3,497,278 times
Reputation: 2230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robeaux View Post
when Obama has to defend his record it will all change.
Well that was what he said many time before he was elected.

CHANGE
.
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:55 PM
 
Location: Springfield, Ohio
14,682 posts, read 14,648,352 times
Reputation: 15410
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robeaux View Post
Either way, when Obama has to defend his record it will all change. He'll "ummmm", "ahhhhh" through the debates and look like an illiterate.
When Obama is running circles around Etch-A-Sketch Romney and his pre-programmed talking points, I don't think the word "illiterate" will come to peoples' minds.
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Old 04-14-2012, 07:01 PM
 
Location: Iowa
865 posts, read 623,209 times
Reputation: 588
Quote:
Originally Posted by Natural510 View Post
When Obama is running circles around Etch-A-Sketch Romney and his pre-programmed talking points, I don't think the word "illiterate" will come to peoples' minds.
"Pre-programmed"...right. Who is it that needs a teleprompter to talk to 3rd graders?
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Old 04-14-2012, 07:35 PM
 
Location: Unperson Everyman Land
38,642 posts, read 26,378,527 times
Reputation: 12648
Quote:
Originally Posted by EdwardA View Post
64% seems like a lot.

I was basing my assertions on the polls today.

The truth is that 2.4% advantage Bummer presently has will likely disappear when the campaign begins.

His record is one of obvious incompetence and consistent failure.
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