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Old 04-15-2012, 09:18 PM
 
10,963 posts, read 7,209,575 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
We don't need them to win and that is why I didnt' include them in my map of wins.
If Romney can't win in the Midwest he can't win the general election.

The primary has shown there is not strong support for him in the South granted he SHOULD do well there because that is the bastion of the Republican Party. But the Mountain West states don't give him enough electoral votes and both the Northeast and West Coast are Democratic strongholds. He's got to pull at least some states with more than 10 electoral votes in order to win.

For Romney to have any chance of winning he's got to win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina.

Rick Scott is NOT a popular governor in Florida. There is a growing Puerto Rican and Dominican population in the Orlando area that serves as a counter-balance to Cuban Republican voters in Miami. Also there is a growing division between young Cuban voters and older staunchly conservative Cuban voters.

The Republican governor of Ohio is not most popular guy in the state after going after collective bargaining rights of public employees in highly unionized state.

As mentioned earlier Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are Democratic strongholds. Romney has not done well in rural areas throughout the entire primary season. The big question is WILL SANTORUM campaign for Romney and will that help or hurt him in a state where Rick Santorum isn't that popular to begin? With the Republican wins in the 2010 elections in this state WERE VERY CLOSE ELECTIONS.

Obama won both Virginia and North Carolina in 2008 and the demographics in both states are changing in ways that benefit President Obama far more than they benefit Mitt Romney.

The fundamental problem for any Republican running for President is the the states with the largest numbers of electoral votes with the exception of Texas tend to vote Democratic in presidential elections. If a Republican candidate can't get significant number of the states with over 10 electoral votes then he or she can't win.

Last edited by JazzyTallGuy; 04-15-2012 at 09:32 PM..
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Old 04-15-2012, 09:27 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
17,933 posts, read 13,560,161 times
Reputation: 3576
Quote:
Originally Posted by JazzyTallGuy View Post
If Romney can win in the Midwest he can't win the general election.

The primary has shown there is not strong support for him in the South granted he SHOULD do well there because that is the bastion of the Republican Party. But the Mountain West states don't give him enough electoral votes and both the Northeast and West Coast are Democratic strongholds.

For Romney to have any chance of winning he's got to win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina.
The fact Colorado is basically gone for the GOP makes it that much more difficult.
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Old 04-15-2012, 09:53 PM
 
14,756 posts, read 7,262,880 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Traditional blue states are not in play.
Why not? Pennsylvania is considered a toss up by real clear politics. While the latest polls have Obama only up 4 in Michigan. Romney could make it close in New Jersey as well.
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Old 04-15-2012, 09:58 PM
Status: "Houston Astros: WORLD CHAMPIONS!!" (set 22 days ago)
 
Location: Suburban Dallas
42,602 posts, read 32,872,226 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
Why not? Pennsylvania is considered a toss up by real clear politics. While the latest polls have Obama only up 4 in Michigan. Romney could make it close in New Jersey as well.
Pennsylvania definitely will be a big player in the election. That state will be critical to Romney's success.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:01 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,315 posts, read 36,406,556 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Traditional blue states are not in play.
Who says? Way too early to be counting out ANY states. That's funny, because the USA/Today Gallup had MI, WI, MN as swing states.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
The fact Colorado is basically gone for the GOP makes it that much more difficult.
It's not gone...let's see where it is in 6 months.

Quinnipiac just put out a NJ poll - obama 49-40...you think that's good for a blue, blue, blue state like NJ with an incumbent president?
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:06 PM
 
Location: Out West
19,073 posts, read 13,594,216 times
Reputation: 22607
I agree with most of dixie girls predictions but I made a few changes based on what I've seen, heard and experienced. The Maine one...I'm totally guessing but I see a pretty even split in what I hear people here saying as well as the demographics in much of the area surrounding. I know Portland and south Maine has more people but I also know, Maine is a "poor state" and people are having a hard time getting jobs, I'm seeing people put their cars out for sale one week, add in their motorhome next to their car the next week, their snowmobiles, their four wheelers...people are certainly feeling it here so I'm not so sure they're going to swing all left this time.

Anyway, here is my prediction:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=iZp

Not looking good for Romney.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:08 PM
 
8,760 posts, read 8,166,770 times
Reputation: 1408
Quote:
Originally Posted by JazzyTallGuy View Post
If Romney can't win in the Midwest he can't win the general election.

The primary has shown there is not strong support for him in the South granted he SHOULD do well there because that is the bastion of the Republican Party. But the Mountain West states don't give him enough electoral votes and both the Northeast and West Coast are Democratic strongholds. He's got to pull at least some states with more than 10 electoral votes in order to win.

For Romney to have any chance of winning he's got to win Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina.

Rick Scott is NOT a popular governor in Florida. There is a growing Puerto Rican and Dominican population in the Orlando area that serves as a counter-balance to Cuban Republican voters in Miami. Also there is a growing division between young Cuban voters and older staunchly conservative Cuban voters.

The Republican governor of Ohio is not most popular guy in the state after going after collective bargaining rights of public employees in highly unionized state.

As mentioned earlier Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are Democratic strongholds. Romney has not done well in rural areas throughout the entire primary season. The big question is WILL SANTORUM campaign for Romney and will that help or hurt him in a state where Rick Santorum isn't that popular to begin? With the Republican wins in the 2010 elections in this state WERE VERY CLOSE ELECTIONS.

Obama won both Virginia and North Carolina in 2008 and the demographics in both states are changing in ways that benefit President Obama far more than they benefit Mitt Romney.

The fundamental problem for any Republican running for President is the the states with the largest numbers of electoral votes with the exception of Texas tend to vote Democratic in presidential elections. If a Republican candidate can't get significant number of the states with over 10 electoral votes then he or she can't win.

Did you look at the map in the link in my post? It clearly shows that Romney can win without PA, MI, WI and so forth. If he were to win those, that's great, but it's not a must.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:11 PM
 
8,760 posts, read 8,166,770 times
Reputation: 1408
Quote:
Originally Posted by Three Wolves In Snow View Post
I agree with most of dixie girls predictions but I made a few changes based on what I've seen, heard and experienced. The Maine one...I'm totally guessing but I see a pretty even split in what I hear people here saying as well as the demographics in much of the area surrounding. I know Portland and south Maine has more people but I also know, Maine is a "poor state" and people are having a hard time getting jobs, I'm seeing people put their cars out for sale one week, add in their motorhome next to their car the next week, their snowmobiles, their four wheelers...people are certainly feeling it here so I'm not so sure they're going to swing all left this time.

Anyway, here is my prediction:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=iZp

Not looking good for Romney.

You can't agree with most of my predictions and then say not looking good for Romney, because I have him winning rather handily...lol.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:14 PM
 
8,760 posts, read 8,166,770 times
Reputation: 1408
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Traditional blue states are not in play.


I wouldn't bet the kid's college money on that!
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:18 PM
 
10,963 posts, read 7,209,575 times
Reputation: 3111
Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
Did you look at the map in the link in my post? It clearly shows that Romney can win without PA, MI, WI and so forth. If he were to win those, that's great, but it's not a must.
If you think Romney can win this election without at least winning PA and wining some states in the Midwest then you are hallucinating.

It's just not going to happen.
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