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Old 04-15-2012, 09:18 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,534 posts, read 14,560,878 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
Why not? Pennsylvania is considered a toss up by real clear politics. While the latest polls have Obama only up 4 in Michigan. Romney could make it close in New Jersey as well.
All three of those have generally been fool's gold for the GOP (NJ especially) by that I mean polled better than the actual results.
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Old 04-15-2012, 09:20 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,534 posts, read 14,560,878 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Three Wolves In Snow View Post
I agree with most of dixie girls predictions but I made a few changes based on what I've seen, heard and experienced. The Maine one...I'm totally guessing but I see a pretty even split in what I hear people here saying as well as the demographics in much of the area surrounding. I know Portland and south Maine has more people but I also know, Maine is a "poor state" and people are having a hard time getting jobs, I'm seeing people put their cars out for sale one week, add in their motorhome next to their car the next week, their snowmobiles, their four wheelers...people are certainly feeling it here so I'm not so sure they're going to swing all left this time.

Anyway, here is my prediction:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=iZp

Not looking good for Romney.
Maine won't even be remotely close.
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Old 04-15-2012, 09:21 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 38,060,907 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
I wouldn't bet the kid's college money on that!
Really. Remember that poll from Gallup where obama was above 50% in just 10 states?
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Old 04-15-2012, 09:22 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,550,056 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JazzyTallGuy View Post
If you think Romney can win this election without at least winning PA and wining some states in the Midwest then you are hallucinating.

It's just not going to happen.


Once again, look at he map! You are not looking at it oviously. I do have him winning midwestern states and he doesn't have to win PA to have enough to win. What midwestern states are you speaking of that I don't have him winning???
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Old 04-15-2012, 09:23 PM
 
8,758 posts, read 8,550,056 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Really. Remember that poll from Gallup where obama was above 50% in just 10 states?

Yes, and we don't even have an actual nominee yet. I would be worried if I was in the Obama camp.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:07 PM
 
Location: Fargo, ND
1,034 posts, read 1,054,506 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Trying to get some type of consensus (which might be an impossible task on here ) on what everyone thinks the swing states are.

I decided to take a look at the states which have not gone to the same party for the last three elections as a starting point

22 states have gone GOP in each of the last three elections, 18 states + DC have gone Dem in the last three elections.

10 states have not been swept those are:

Colorado
Florida
Indiana
Iowa
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

Of those I think you can take out Indiana as being swing as its mostly a GOP state. I would also take out New Mexico and Nevada as both states have moved too far away from the GOP.

This basically leaves a 253-191 advantage for Obama over states that you can really argue lean one way or another. This is also without even taking into consideration Colorado which appears to be gone for the GOP and being somewhat generous with New Hampshire.

So considering what the swing states are (without including states that might not be strong for one side, but do lean one way or the other) it looks like Romney might need to sweep the swing states, which is not an easy task.
I'd still keep Nevada in the swing category but New Mexico is out of play right now. I'd also put PA into play, I know it is usually fools gold but it is close enough to be considered in play.

That said I'd like to wait to see how things stand after the conventions, polling right now is pretty much meaningless unless it shows a candidate is getting absolutely pummeled.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:13 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,314 posts, read 38,060,907 times
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I can't see how obama wins NC - he won it by 14,000 votes in 2008, getting out every liberal, black, hispanic, youth vote, under every rock. Can he do the same in 2012? Not likely.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:21 PM
 
Location: Fargo, ND
1,034 posts, read 1,054,506 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
I can't see how obama wins NC - he won it by 14,000 votes in 2008, getting out every liberal, black, hispanic, youth vote, under every rock. Can he do the same in 2012? Not likely.
Yeah Obama has a large enthusiasm gap.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:28 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
18,534 posts, read 14,560,878 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
I can't see how obama wins NC - he won it by 14,000 votes in 2008, getting out every liberal, black, hispanic, youth vote, under every rock. Can he do the same in 2012? Not likely.
The bulk of the growth in the state have either been in heavily Dem areas or have trended Democratic. The Triangle is very Democratic and continues to move that way, Charlotte has become more Democratic, even the more conservative and Republic Charlotte suburbs while still heavily GOP in most cases are not as staunchly so as they were. Meanwhile the areas which have become more Republican, tend to be the smaller rural areas which aren't seeing the same growth.
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Old 04-15-2012, 10:29 PM
 
10,963 posts, read 7,648,102 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Really. Remember that poll from Gallup where obama was above 50% in just 10 states?
Name the number of states that Romney was above 50% so far in the Republican Primaries?

One can only wonder what would have happened if Santorum had more money and a better campaign organization.
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