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Unread 04-15-2012, 11:00 PM
 
8,761 posts, read 4,480,193 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JazzyTallGuy View Post
Name the number of states that Romney was above 50% so far in the Republican Primaries?

One can only wonder what would have happened if Santorum had more money and a better campaign organization.

That is not even a valid point in the general election. You have to remember that four candidates remained in the race right up until now which accounts for a lot of the percentage break down and it has nothing at all to do with the general election.

If there were any correlation at all, Romney would win MA since he carried it by 72%. You can't go by anything that happened in these primaries.
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Unread 04-15-2012, 11:23 PM
 
3,271 posts, read 708,982 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
The bulk of the growth in the state have either been in heavily Dem areas or have trended Democratic. The Triangle is very Democratic and continues to move that way, Charlotte has become more Democratic, even the more conservative and Republic Charlotte suburbs while still heavily GOP in most cases are not as staunchly so as they were. Meanwhile the areas which have become more Republican, tend to be the smaller rural areas which aren't seeing the same growth.
The demographic shift is one part of it, but the other and I'd argue more important part is Obama's ground operations never left the state after 2008. Even in more GOP friendly places like Alamance and Cabarrus counties, Obama's had paid field staff there for months.

Whereas Romney has yet to open a single office in NC, and his entire organization seems to consist of half a roomful of retirees and a facebook page at this point. Politico has him doing a couple country club fundraisers this week in Raleigh but that's about it.
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Unread 04-16-2012, 01:06 AM
 
8,761 posts, read 4,480,193 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by box_of_zip_disks View Post
The demographic shift is one part of it, but the other and I'd argue more important part is Obama's ground operations never left the state after 2008. Even in more GOP friendly places like Alamance and Cabarrus counties, Obama's had paid field staff there for months.

Whereas Romney has yet to open a single office in NC, and his entire organization seems to consist of half a roomful of retirees and a facebook page at this point. Politico has him doing a couple country club fundraisers this week in Raleigh but that's about it.

You are seriously underestimating the Romney campaign and it's organization. They know the importance of North Carolina in the general as well as anyone.
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Unread 04-16-2012, 06:36 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,214 posts, read 21,929,118 times
Reputation: 6975
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
The bulk of the growth in the state have either been in heavily Dem areas or have trended Democratic. The Triangle is very Democratic and continues to move that way, Charlotte has become more Democratic, even the more conservative and Republic Charlotte suburbs while still heavily GOP in most cases are not as staunchly so as they were. Meanwhile the areas which have become more Republican, tend to be the smaller rural areas which aren't seeing the same growth.
This is the result of the liberal flight we see from highly taxes northern states they have ruined with their policies. They flee to RED states and continue to vote for liberal policy.

Don't think NC is so purple yet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_C...y_of_2011-2012

The GOP kicked the dems derriere in 2010, taking over both chambers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_C...y_of_2009-2010
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Unread 04-16-2012, 07:03 AM
 
Location: USA - midwest
5,670 posts, read 2,295,967 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
They are definitely swing states. See, this is obama's problem......traditional "blue" states will be in play.

I don't see obama winning NC, IA, IN and FL again. OH, PA and VA will be close. NH I will give to Romney.

Give obama NV, CO, NM, MI, WI, MN and VA, in addition to the "normal" blue states (although I think states like CT, MA, OR and WA) might be open for Romney.

Give Romney IN, IA, PA, OH, NC, FL and NH.

283-255 Romney.

One thing you have to look at are the traditional BLUE states that went RED in 2010/2011. MN, WI, ME, PA, in addition to OH.

Wishful thinking...
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Unread 04-16-2012, 07:04 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,214 posts, read 21,929,118 times
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We'll see, won't we?
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Unread 04-16-2012, 08:44 AM
 
Location: Billerica, MA
3,233 posts, read 3,507,800 times
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I'm going to throw out a possible state for Romney that will likely get some blowback from folks - RI.

This state is hurting seriously economically and the polls for their representatives in Congress is quite low, especially Cicilline in RI-1 who not even make it for re-election because of a primary challenge from Gemma. IF the economy stalls or starts slipping back, people in blue collar-oriented areas of RI might be looking for a 'change' and come out to vote against the Democrats. I put this at a low chance and again, only if the economic recovery is still very bad. But not impossible.

I also think the keys to Romney's victory are winning at least 3 of these five states: Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Michigan. He doesn't do that, he doesn't win the election.
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Unread 04-16-2012, 11:09 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
13,215 posts, read 6,399,424 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
This is the result of the liberal flight we see from highly taxes northern states they have ruined with their policies. They flee to RED states and continue to vote for liberal policy.

Don't think NC is so purple yet.

North Carolina General Assembly of 2011

The GOP kicked the dems derriere in 2010, taking over both chambers.

North Carolina General Assembly of 2009
Differentturnout dynamic in 2010, state races are also quite a bit diferent. The parts of the state that have seen the bulk of those northeast liberals are by far and away better economically than the parts of the state that have not seen the liberals from the northeast.
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Unread 04-16-2012, 08:04 PM
 
3,271 posts, read 708,982 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
You are seriously underestimating the Romney campaign and it's organization. They know the importance of North Carolina in the general as well as anyone.
I'm not underestimating anything. I'm sure he'll eventually open an office up after the primaries are all done.
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Unread 04-16-2012, 08:09 PM
 
10,964 posts, read 3,512,302 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dixiegirl7 View Post
That is not even a valid point in the general election. You have to remember that four candidates remained in the race right up until now which accounts for a lot of the percentage break down and it has nothing at all to do with the general election.

If there were any correlation at all, Romney would win MA since he carried it by 72%. You can't go by anything that happened in these primaries.
It's very valid in terms of the type of support he got ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

Simply put, Mitt Romney get an incredibly weak mandate in terms of the popular vote to be the Republican nominee. That will hurt him in states that are competitive. Especially damning considering how much he spent his rivals.

Now he goes up against in incumbent President WHO IS MUCH BETTER FINANCED AND ORGANIZED THAN MITT ROMNEY HAS EVER FACED.
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